three cheers to UPA ........

KUDOS to indian electorate and THREE CHEERS TO UPA ! ! !

to everyone's utter surprise ..... the elephant left the living room without any damage .... not only that - like in the old fairy-tales, it has moved the magic trunk all over while leaving .... converting all wood, copper and steel into GOLD and SILVER .....

just yesterday evening, everyone was talking about hung parliament and the long summer nights - trying to forge a workable coalition etc - but the UPA pre-poll allies themselves have got a near simple majority .....

the left front will like to forget today as a bad dream .... hoping it never happened .... all the regional satraps who felt like king-kongs and did not bother to align with either the BJP or the CONGRESS are lying on the wayside .....in the gust of the passing bullet train - UPA.

today is the day when all the world should stand up and salute the matured indian democracy and the indian electoral system .... the process as well as the electorate itself ..... which has been many times ridiculed as illiterate, easy to manipulate, overly emotional, herd mentality etc etc.

today we have seen the never before example of TACTICAL voting. when elctorate as large as 600 million responds tactically .... just with the sense of purpose /duty and no other external impetus ... THE WORLD HAS TO STAND-UP AND TAKE NOTE.

now the new government has just blue skies above with no dark clouds of the left or the samajvadis of different hues and the moral responsibility of loads of expectations of the matured electorate which has done its job brilliantly.

NOW IT IS TIME TO PERFORM .....

exit poll vortex .......

the exit polls have ruled out NDA govt virtually ..... but the prospects of a MINORITY govt are extremely extremely damaging .....

this idea is muted by the left parties just to keep BJP out of power and congress may find this soft option acceptable .... any way they remain in power and that is what matters to them ......

but that means inspite of getting lower or say nearly half the seats - the left will continue to call shots .... and that is not a good news for market .....

FIIs will not like the idea of minority govt ... as it is extremely unstable .... and that too supported by left ...... this will be the worst they would have expected .... and they will make their intentions clear ..... by their feet ...... by walking out ....

anyway all that is speculation still ..... but i have painted a possible scenario .... which shud force you to cash ...... it is still not too late ......

unjustified euphoria ......

yesterdays rally came out of nowhere - on the back of prospects of NDA govt .... that is what i hear ... and FIIs were the drivers

was it justified ? lets look threadbare .....

what do you think ? who knows indian polity best ? the phirangs with their computer simulated models or people like you and me who have lived here for decades and know all the colours these political chameleons can show ?

personally i am thrilled with the prospect of NDA government - due to my political leanings ..... but at the same time i will not throw caution to the winds and recommend all out TEJI.

the dice is loaded against NDA govt as they are political untouchables to many .... far too many .....this means that the NDA govt becomes a reality if BJP on their own move closer to 180 .... which to me looks a farfetched scenario ...... i have also not forgotten the 13 day govt experience of BJP 12/13 yrs ago .......

so - even if exit polls indicate a NDA scenario - a lot more drama has to unfold between today evening - the official results and the coronation of LKA as the prime minister ...
there will be huge huge swings both ways ..... and only the speculators thrive in such a scenario .... the average investor gets cut both ways .....

so we shud do the most obvious and most logical thing .... sit out this uncertain period .... if you hv moved to substantial cash - as told several times in last 10 days - deploy 20/30 % on big downswings .... only in quality stocks .... that is our objective .... isnt it ?

for heaven's sake, dont chase prices ...... be patient - because like swiss trains which come at the station - every hour - on the dot - you wl get several opportunities to get back into the market and that is inspite of NDA govt .....

governing with mistresses like jaylalita or mayavati - or even both - is not easy .... not at all easy .......

elephant in your living room ........

i like this first global duo --- shankar sharma / devina ..... somehow their investment philosophy and line of thinking is very similar to mine ....... i have never met them ... i dont know them at all apart from seeing them on TV .......

today devina talked about elephant in your living room syndrome ..... just imagine if that happens to you ...... what can u do ? really nothing ...... so u do the next best thing ...... u try to ignore it and hope that it will go away as it came in .... and with least damage to the house ......

this is exactly what the market is doing to election outcome .... just hoping that everything will be alright next week ... we will hv a stable government and continuation of reforms ......

but this is wish ful thinking ...... and there is something you can do in this case which u cant do in case of an elephant ...... sell out - mostly everything and move to cash ....... exactly what i have been preaching for last 5/7 days ....... be atleast 85/90 % in cash ..... sell what is saleable ...... or what can lose value substantially ......

we will have exit polls out on 13th evening and all hell will break lose on 14th itself ....... so dont wait till last minute ..... ACT NOW WHEN IT STILL NOT TOO LATE .........

election special ......

Today we will review the possible outcome of the general elections. To me it looks apparent that BJP + Congress will get just around 230 / 240 seats throwing open all kind of possibilities. No other single block like CPI / CPM, SP , BSP, RJD + LJP + NCP will get more than 40 seats.

So I feel the third front supported by Congress or Congress + third front ( with a different leader than manmohan ) are the possible governments. Some quarters are speculating over Chiddu ( though I have my own reservations beause of left parties ) as a possible front runner if congress will lead the government. If the third front will form the government with congress support – the leader could be anyone and name of Sharad Pawar can not be ruled out.

Fortunately 16th may is a Saturday – otherwise we would have had two lower circuits ( 10% + 5% ) for sure. 48 hours are not going to be enough to have clarity about the form of the government that we will have and I will envisage a 10% circuit or closer on Monday 18th morning.

As usual many pivotals will take deep cuts but momentum brigade will be massacred again.

The scenario described above does not warrant anyone to hold long term investments as CASH WILL BE KING. May be I will be wrong but the form of the government is definitely not going to be such as to spark a strong rally. So if you have moved to cash – you will definitely get an opportunity to get back in to the market at similar or even slightly lower levels.

I ALWAYS PREFER TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND STRONGLY RECOMMEND MOVING TO CASH.

SO, TRADE WITH ABUNDANT CAUTION AND KEEP MOVING TO CASH.

Please remember CAPITAL is always scarce and needs to be respected.