madhav ranade (10/29/2008 9:52:58 AM): good morning ! SAAL MUBARAK to all my gujju friends ...... enjoy yr day .... a pop in the morning is on but my posn trading long level of 2873 is far away and i dont think it will be reached .... dow has moved up sharply on expectation of rate cut and now expectation is 0.75 to 1 % cut .... that wl put fed rate below what greenspan did ...... so looks rather difficult to me and then there is every chance of US markets getting spooked .... with all above logic, i think we wl hv a modestly higher close today .... keeping in mind tomorrows holiday ..... so morning pop is to exit stuck longs or profit booking ... whichever way u look at it .......
madhav ranade (10/29/2008 11:01:07 AM): those who went long on GMR yesterday ..... are getting a royal screw ......... i think they asked for it ....... so deserve it .........
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madhav ranade (10/28/2008 6:11:55 PM): good evening ! wishing happy diwali and prosperous new year ..... and let us hope we will not have any excesses of the last year ..... on the long as well as on the short side .... and regulators will be fair to bulls as well as the bears ...... and it wont be one way street for chiddu and everyone coming the otherway will be looked at like a criminal ...... we are going to hv a smart little bounce and i hope it is a durable one ... as we r trading tomorrow as well ..... i expect about 80 to 100 nifty points ...... let us see how it plays out ......
madhav ranade (10/28/2008 6:50:32 PM): ntpc is running ...... lets wait till tomorrow ..... but this show of strength is playing into hands of bears ..... i reiterate results are nothing to cheer about .... so if u hv built longs ... sell in strength and take home profits ......
madhav ranade (10/28/2008 6:57:44 PM): MRPL ...... due to dismal qtly results the stock has dipped ..... shud be treated as an opportunity to accumulate at a reasonable level ......
madhav ranade (10/28/2008 7:05:19 PM): US has opened a bit subdued compared to futures indication and ......... may be some profit taking or long unwinding will happen in last 10 mins of trade ....... it is inevitable ....... and may be warranted as well .......
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madhav ranade (10/27/2008 9:42:09 AM): good morning ! so we r in the zone of 2550/2700 indicated 3 weeks ago ..... we hv reached it a bit too earlier than expected .... but even if 10 investors hv pulled out of MFs and saved 30 % that they wud hv otherwise lost, i think i have achieved something ..... now, we look at 2300/2400 zone as the next stop ...... my posn trading levels for nifty are 2573/2837 ...... so remain short if nifty trades below 2573 ..... exact sl and targets are sent to paid customers ....... cheers once again who hv listened to me and pulled out of MFs ......
Thursday, October 30, 2008
yahoo messenger archives 20th / 24th oct 2008
madhav ranade (10/24/2008 9:44:40 AM): good morning ! usual gap down expected ..... what haunts me a supreme court lawyer goofing up so badly .... and can u call in unintentional ..... link it with steadfast 8 % gdp growth projections till last week ..... and everything falls in place ...... we dont need such people and do we deserve them ..... i think not ..... but that is our polity ....... RIL results were surprising to say the least ...... may be they hv taken credit of last qtr inventory profit this qtr .... that is dressing up .... it was suggested by tulsiyan when he analysed results last qtr ..... punj lloyd has still not booked the massive loss .... they seem to be hoping that they wl not hv to book it as they may be able to cover it up as the time goes by ..... is it prudent corporate governance ???? you take a call ......
madhav ranade (10/24/2008 10:42:29 AM): mr gautam .... JM financial is on cnbc ..... this guy was extremely bullish on dow when it was moving between 11000/11700 ... for nearly a month .... he was then predicting a new high for dow .... now he is talking of 7500 ....... beware of such extremists ....... he put all investors in trouble by painting a very rosy picture of indian market then and now he is spreading panic ..... be cautious .....
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madhav ranade (10/23/2008 9:36:26 AM): good morning ! i am back in pune .... all the talk of banning shorts was holding market on tuesday and channels were thinking that was 'strength ' ..... it has happened umteen no times that we hv taken the correct call inspite of what channels are telling to the masses .... this was one more instance .... today 2920 is crucial nifty spot level ... we hv to trade above that to show any strength ..... pl watch that .....
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 1:58:39 PM): just about 20 % of FII selling in last 2 weeks has come from borrowed shares .... which is not really very huge ..... as if to think that is the only point that is bugging indian market ...... we may hv a bounce for a day or two ...... but that shud be about all ... FIIs wl find push delivery based selling ....... if they hv to sell and then no one can stop them ......
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:08:32 PM): chiddu .... till last week ... kept on saying that 8 % gdp growth is possible ..... 2 days ago ... PM gives out a figure of 7 % ..... govt is behaving as if 1 % reduction in growth comes at no cost .... actually that acceptance of 7 % wud hv unnerved many FIIs as we will deliver closer to 6 % actually ....... look at it from this angle .... we r going to hv a lot of selling ..... not only from hedge funds but even from long only funds .... who hv now become jittery .... watch out .......
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:21:39 PM): how many of u hv read today that in next one year 89 billion dollars of short term loans will hv to be repaid .... just imagine what wl happen to dollar rupee rate ... and then what incentive long only funds hv to remain invested ..... is it not better they sell out now and comeback ... if they want to .... may be 3/4 quarters down the line when the dollar rupee rate is more favourable to them ... i am sure some FIIs wl take this call on INDIAN market as yr own PM has now acknoledged difficult times ahead ..... think and think really hard ......
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:30:57 PM): many of us are still thinking that the the problem that the market has can be treated OPD procedures like rate cut / shorts ban etc ..... actually patient needs to be admitted for long haul ... as the problem is rather serious and may be even fatal ...... pl understand .....i am trying to explain in many many different ways so that something will stick .... sooner the better .......
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:43:13 PM): SEBI is pushing to activate domestic LBM ... in that context it is absolutely skewed logic that u can borrow from LIC and short but u cant borrow from CALPERS ..... any comments ? ? ?
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:55:29 PM): bulls hv played out one more trump today ..... with no signficant and expected result ...... infact many of them only wud hv got trapped ...... now what remains is absolute short ban ... which wl result into either closure of futures market or only squaring allowed in futures .... if that happens ...most of the brokers wl go out of business as that is where the bulk of the brokerages are coming ......
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madhav ranade (10/21/2008 2:46:51 PM): if chennai petro results is to be taken as an indicator ...... both RPL and RIL need to be sold imdtly ........ atleast caution is reqd to cut longs ..... both ar high weightage stocks on nifty .... so we wl hv obvious implications on nifty ......
madhav ranade (10/24/2008 10:42:29 AM): mr gautam .... JM financial is on cnbc ..... this guy was extremely bullish on dow when it was moving between 11000/11700 ... for nearly a month .... he was then predicting a new high for dow .... now he is talking of 7500 ....... beware of such extremists ....... he put all investors in trouble by painting a very rosy picture of indian market then and now he is spreading panic ..... be cautious .....
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madhav ranade (10/23/2008 9:36:26 AM): good morning ! i am back in pune .... all the talk of banning shorts was holding market on tuesday and channels were thinking that was 'strength ' ..... it has happened umteen no times that we hv taken the correct call inspite of what channels are telling to the masses .... this was one more instance .... today 2920 is crucial nifty spot level ... we hv to trade above that to show any strength ..... pl watch that .....
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 1:58:39 PM): just about 20 % of FII selling in last 2 weeks has come from borrowed shares .... which is not really very huge ..... as if to think that is the only point that is bugging indian market ...... we may hv a bounce for a day or two ...... but that shud be about all ... FIIs wl find push delivery based selling ....... if they hv to sell and then no one can stop them ......
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:08:32 PM): chiddu .... till last week ... kept on saying that 8 % gdp growth is possible ..... 2 days ago ... PM gives out a figure of 7 % ..... govt is behaving as if 1 % reduction in growth comes at no cost .... actually that acceptance of 7 % wud hv unnerved many FIIs as we will deliver closer to 6 % actually ....... look at it from this angle .... we r going to hv a lot of selling ..... not only from hedge funds but even from long only funds .... who hv now become jittery .... watch out .......
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:21:39 PM): how many of u hv read today that in next one year 89 billion dollars of short term loans will hv to be repaid .... just imagine what wl happen to dollar rupee rate ... and then what incentive long only funds hv to remain invested ..... is it not better they sell out now and comeback ... if they want to .... may be 3/4 quarters down the line when the dollar rupee rate is more favourable to them ... i am sure some FIIs wl take this call on INDIAN market as yr own PM has now acknoledged difficult times ahead ..... think and think really hard ......
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:30:57 PM): many of us are still thinking that the the problem that the market has can be treated OPD procedures like rate cut / shorts ban etc ..... actually patient needs to be admitted for long haul ... as the problem is rather serious and may be even fatal ...... pl understand .....i am trying to explain in many many different ways so that something will stick .... sooner the better .......
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:43:13 PM): SEBI is pushing to activate domestic LBM ... in that context it is absolutely skewed logic that u can borrow from LIC and short but u cant borrow from CALPERS ..... any comments ? ? ?
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:55:29 PM): bulls hv played out one more trump today ..... with no signficant and expected result ...... infact many of them only wud hv got trapped ...... now what remains is absolute short ban ... which wl result into either closure of futures market or only squaring allowed in futures .... if that happens ...most of the brokers wl go out of business as that is where the bulk of the brokerages are coming ......
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madhav ranade (10/21/2008 2:46:51 PM): if chennai petro results is to be taken as an indicator ...... both RPL and RIL need to be sold imdtly ........ atleast caution is reqd to cut longs ..... both ar high weightage stocks on nifty .... so we wl hv obvious implications on nifty ......
yahoo messenger archives - 13th / 17th oct 2008
madhav ranade (10/17/2008 9:53:20 AM): good morning ! a mildly positive opening and may be some small buildup after that .... thereafter usual dance to the dow fut tune ..... yesterday the cahannels are attributing rally to short covering ...... rally happened first on dow tune and extended a bit on short covering .... but last 70 points were given back in double quick time ..... so forget about what channels r saying and just trade by watching dow futs ......
madhav ranade (10/17/2008 3:20:59 PM): i will just reproduce a few lines from my diwali posting ... which wl appear in the economic revolution next week ..... Our FAB FOUR are due to retire from test cricket during the course of this year and we will also see some big corporate names biting the dust by the time next samvat is over. Every bear market leaves behind some carcasses as every bull phase has new leaders. any guess which carcases u wl find in the next few weeks and months ...........
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madhav ranade (10/16/2008 9:54:25 AM): good morning ! about ten days ago, i made a very fervent emotional appeal to all of you to get out of MFs ... but itseems no remption pressures hv come up on equity funds .... is it plain apathy towards our own money or that 'invincible' aura of indian growth story is still enticing many of you who care about capital ..... it is really really surprising ...... yr wealth advisors ..... read MF agents will not allow u to exit .... lest they wl lose trailing commissions which just come to them without doing anything .... kudos to indian MF investor ... and to their AVIJIGESHU tendencies .... look at indian langauges shabdakosha if u do not understand avijigeshu ..... i give up .... simply give up ......
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madhav ranade (10/15/2008 9:52:33 AM): good morning ! usual pattern is playing out and we hv generally guessed the US market mood well in advance ..... generally when we close at 3.30 pm, it is still very early for dow futs to become active in the real sense ..... may be some operators are even manipulating those futures and then taking opposit posn as the volume is really really insignificant in dow futs at that hour ...... just a theory i am putting up .... i know this has happened in the past when ADRs were rather thinly traded ..... now the volumes hv increased substantially ...... as for today, 50/60 points gap down and then dancing to US futures tune there after .... usual pattern ......
madhav ranade (10/15/2008 12:05:40 PM): LT results are not good on q on q basis ..... this is first cut ..... selloff is logical ......
madhav ranade (10/15/2008 12:12:24 PM): LT ..... interst 69 crores as against 36 crores .... last 4 qtr average ..... also more than 10 % jump in expenses for similar jmp in revenue ..... this shows pressure on margins ....... more analysis wl be done by suited and booted analysts who hv no other work in any case than crunching nos ......
madhav ranade (10/15/2008 12:17:05 PM): if LT is any indicator, interest is going to hit bottomlines of all brick and mortar businesses ..... pl accept this reality ......
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madhav ranade (10/14/2008 9:49:49 AM): good morning ! a monster rally in US markets ...... a part discounted in our market already ..... i expect max 4 to 5 % in our markets today ..... even that may not sustain as FIIs will press sells at higher levels and MFs also change to profit booking mode ..... keep that in mind ......
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madhav ranade (10/13/2008 9:51:18 AM): good morning ! look at gravity of the situation ..... FM on TV channels even before market opening ...... giving his figures trying to convince .... to whoever wants to get convinced ..... that everything is OK ...... any way, we will open up and may build a bit on that .... some shortcovering will happen ... as expected ..... but usual zing wl be missing in the bounce ..... particularly from these extreme oversold posn ......
madhav ranade (10/13/2008 10:03:26 AM): further CRR cuts and possible repo rate cuts ..... shud be looked at as RBI's helplessness ..... inflation is still close to 12 % and still they hv to cut rates ...... the problems are grave and its clear that we r in for a lot of trouble .... over a considerale amount of time ......
madhav ranade (10/17/2008 3:20:59 PM): i will just reproduce a few lines from my diwali posting ... which wl appear in the economic revolution next week ..... Our FAB FOUR are due to retire from test cricket during the course of this year and we will also see some big corporate names biting the dust by the time next samvat is over. Every bear market leaves behind some carcasses as every bull phase has new leaders. any guess which carcases u wl find in the next few weeks and months ...........
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madhav ranade (10/16/2008 9:54:25 AM): good morning ! about ten days ago, i made a very fervent emotional appeal to all of you to get out of MFs ... but itseems no remption pressures hv come up on equity funds .... is it plain apathy towards our own money or that 'invincible' aura of indian growth story is still enticing many of you who care about capital ..... it is really really surprising ...... yr wealth advisors ..... read MF agents will not allow u to exit .... lest they wl lose trailing commissions which just come to them without doing anything .... kudos to indian MF investor ... and to their AVIJIGESHU tendencies .... look at indian langauges shabdakosha if u do not understand avijigeshu ..... i give up .... simply give up ......
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madhav ranade (10/15/2008 9:52:33 AM): good morning ! usual pattern is playing out and we hv generally guessed the US market mood well in advance ..... generally when we close at 3.30 pm, it is still very early for dow futs to become active in the real sense ..... may be some operators are even manipulating those futures and then taking opposit posn as the volume is really really insignificant in dow futs at that hour ...... just a theory i am putting up .... i know this has happened in the past when ADRs were rather thinly traded ..... now the volumes hv increased substantially ...... as for today, 50/60 points gap down and then dancing to US futures tune there after .... usual pattern ......
madhav ranade (10/15/2008 12:05:40 PM): LT results are not good on q on q basis ..... this is first cut ..... selloff is logical ......
madhav ranade (10/15/2008 12:12:24 PM): LT ..... interst 69 crores as against 36 crores .... last 4 qtr average ..... also more than 10 % jump in expenses for similar jmp in revenue ..... this shows pressure on margins ....... more analysis wl be done by suited and booted analysts who hv no other work in any case than crunching nos ......
madhav ranade (10/15/2008 12:17:05 PM): if LT is any indicator, interest is going to hit bottomlines of all brick and mortar businesses ..... pl accept this reality ......
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madhav ranade (10/14/2008 9:49:49 AM): good morning ! a monster rally in US markets ...... a part discounted in our market already ..... i expect max 4 to 5 % in our markets today ..... even that may not sustain as FIIs will press sells at higher levels and MFs also change to profit booking mode ..... keep that in mind ......
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madhav ranade (10/13/2008 9:51:18 AM): good morning ! look at gravity of the situation ..... FM on TV channels even before market opening ...... giving his figures trying to convince .... to whoever wants to get convinced ..... that everything is OK ...... any way, we will open up and may build a bit on that .... some shortcovering will happen ... as expected ..... but usual zing wl be missing in the bounce ..... particularly from these extreme oversold posn ......
madhav ranade (10/13/2008 10:03:26 AM): further CRR cuts and possible repo rate cuts ..... shud be looked at as RBI's helplessness ..... inflation is still close to 12 % and still they hv to cut rates ...... the problems are grave and its clear that we r in for a lot of trouble .... over a considerale amount of time ......
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
messenger archives 8th and 10th october
madhav ranade (10/10/2008 9:48:58 AM): good morning ! we shud be looking at circuit down opening ...... so try and buy whatever u can before market closes down ... put yr offer at yr dream prices of 2004/05 .... they may be filled in ......
madhav ranade (10/10/2008 10:08:55 AM): so circuit was saved ....... diis hv bought heavily at market price .... and absorbed all that retail wanted to sell ..... now we hv to see what happens when FII selling starts ..... i think that shud start after some time .... they wl wait to see if there is a bounce and they can exit at somewhat better price point
madhav ranade (10/10/2008 11:21:56 AM): on monday, i had written that my charts show that FMCG wl comeoff this week ..... particularly HINDLEVER ....... today 15 % down from monday morning rate ...... cheers ......
madhav ranade (10/10/2008 3:26:11 PM): even today .... nifty futs are at premium ..... i hv been consistently saying that bears r not pushing hard .... it is the bulls who hv lost heart .... and thrown in the towel ...... they hv stashed away all the money they made in 4 yrs bull run .... i dont know where ...... they hv lost the spirit to fight ......
madhav ranade (10/8/2008 10:35:21 AM): now the kedias of the world are scared to look at charts and make any predictions .... but many of them ... incl that JP morgan tech guy were not ready to call downside when dow was around 11000/11800 range for 4/5 /6 weeks ..... the fundas of US economy was telling u that this market is going to collapse and i kept warning .... on every possible forum ..... but i am a freelancer and i dont hv institutional backing ..... no regrets for that .... it enables me to speak my mind ..... no compulsion of towing corporate line ...... i only feel bad that gullible investors continue to be taken for ride ..... by these operators / brokers / MF cos ..... and now ULIP offering insurance cos ..... we r in for a major major trouble .....
madhav ranade (10/8/2008 11:16:20 AM): many of the stocks .... are available at aug / sept 2006 prices ..... and everyone is calling them 'mouthwatering' but that is on trailing twelve month EPS basis. when the future profits are uncertain ...... we need to be careful and buy only those stocks where there is clear visibility of earnings ..... for next 12/18 months ..... keep that in mind and then buy stocks ..... and dont sell yr house as udayan was suggesting ...... it is foolhardy - at any price level .... and any stock ....
madhav ranade (10/8/2008 3:13:17 PM): if u hv read my blog www.sumamurauvach.blogspot.com u wl now have a general hang of how i think and how i give my calls. generally, u wl find that the margin of safety is high and there is some logic in what i say and it is explicitly explained ..... so that u can also think and decide whether what i am saying is right or wrong ...... i never talk in thin air ...... i will appreciate if u hv any comments .....
madhav ranade (10/10/2008 10:08:55 AM): so circuit was saved ....... diis hv bought heavily at market price .... and absorbed all that retail wanted to sell ..... now we hv to see what happens when FII selling starts ..... i think that shud start after some time .... they wl wait to see if there is a bounce and they can exit at somewhat better price point
madhav ranade (10/10/2008 11:21:56 AM): on monday, i had written that my charts show that FMCG wl comeoff this week ..... particularly HINDLEVER ....... today 15 % down from monday morning rate ...... cheers ......
madhav ranade (10/10/2008 3:26:11 PM): even today .... nifty futs are at premium ..... i hv been consistently saying that bears r not pushing hard .... it is the bulls who hv lost heart .... and thrown in the towel ...... they hv stashed away all the money they made in 4 yrs bull run .... i dont know where ...... they hv lost the spirit to fight ......
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madhav ranade (10/8/2008 9:52:17 AM): good morning ! i told u two days ago that 3550/3700 is very important zone ..... a decisive break wl take us 30 % lower in months to come ..... today atleast one analyst acknowledged that possibility ...... we may get into structural bear market then ..... so watch next few days carefully ..... i hv already given u hints about MF withdrawals yesterday and do think in ernest .... i dont want anyone to repent later ..... we can always reenter if the market does not collapse ......keep that in mind .....madhav ranade (10/8/2008 10:35:21 AM): now the kedias of the world are scared to look at charts and make any predictions .... but many of them ... incl that JP morgan tech guy were not ready to call downside when dow was around 11000/11800 range for 4/5 /6 weeks ..... the fundas of US economy was telling u that this market is going to collapse and i kept warning .... on every possible forum ..... but i am a freelancer and i dont hv institutional backing ..... no regrets for that .... it enables me to speak my mind ..... no compulsion of towing corporate line ...... i only feel bad that gullible investors continue to be taken for ride ..... by these operators / brokers / MF cos ..... and now ULIP offering insurance cos ..... we r in for a major major trouble .....
madhav ranade (10/8/2008 11:16:20 AM): many of the stocks .... are available at aug / sept 2006 prices ..... and everyone is calling them 'mouthwatering' but that is on trailing twelve month EPS basis. when the future profits are uncertain ...... we need to be careful and buy only those stocks where there is clear visibility of earnings ..... for next 12/18 months ..... keep that in mind and then buy stocks ..... and dont sell yr house as udayan was suggesting ...... it is foolhardy - at any price level .... and any stock ....
madhav ranade (10/8/2008 3:13:17 PM): if u hv read my blog www.sumamurauvach.blogspot.com u wl now have a general hang of how i think and how i give my calls. generally, u wl find that the margin of safety is high and there is some logic in what i say and it is explicitly explained ..... so that u can also think and decide whether what i am saying is right or wrong ...... i never talk in thin air ...... i will appreciate if u hv any comments .....
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
archives of yahoo messenger 1st / 7th oct 2008
madhav ranade (10/7/2008 9:52:37 AM): good morning ! i had mentioned yesterday that i see 3550/3700 as a major support zone ...... and it will be not so easy to break that ..... so, we hv some announcements like p notes / crr and we wl se a bounce today ...... i had also mentioned that get into some stocks where u see value .... i hope u hv bought something ..... there is no point in simply sitting on sidelines ......
madhav ranade (10/7/2008 1:07:38 PM): looks like TATACHEM is taking a double knock ..... all fertiliser stocks hv collapsed and collapse of tata stocks are reflecting on tatachem treasury holding value also ..... but still at this price it looks extremely attractive ............ 175 / 190 looks a good support zone ..... u can buy the stock from short as well as medium term perspective .....
madhav ranade (10/7/2008 1:50:15 PM): the way the markets are falling all over the world ..... it looks like that we were better off without this FII menace ..... atleast we knew our jokers and we knew rules of the game ...... may be that is what bhave meant when he said we need to restructure the whole FII regime ...... the picture worldwide is looking extremely grim ...... and MF fund investors shud seriously start thinking taking money out of equity schemes and shift to debt ..... this is a must to protect yr gains .... atleast pull out 40/50 % of the amount ..... it is better to be safe than sorry .............. even if u hv no profits in MFs, even capital preservation is equally important ...... so pull out even if u r making losses ...... cances yr ECS mandates for SIPs also ...... there is no point throwing good money behind bad money ...... our economy may be in good shape but without FII money what valuations yr stocks can get ............... think like that ...... if FIIs pull out another 5 billion USD, we wl go down by 25/30 % .... even from these levels ..... and then all yr dreams built on prospects of super equity gains will evaporate in thin air ......i am not painting a grim scenario for the sake of it but just sharing my humble thoughts .... which i know are 180 degree opposit to fund managers who just dont want u to sell ....... when there is delivery based selling .... banning shorts also does not work ..... look at US / UK ...... for me 3550 is an important level ... and may be it wl be protected on closing basis ..... but how long ..... and i am making u think as i know that such important decisions can not be taken on spur of the moment ..... so think, think hard and come to a conclusion before the weak is out ...... god bless you .......
madhav ranade (10/7/2008 2:32:39 PM): on all parameters a certain stock may look good ...... but there has to be a buyer ..... look at it like this a new painter with skills 10 times better than MF hussein starts painting ..... he expects to fetch a better price than hussein since his paintings are inherently better ...... and the king of that state has agreed to buy whatever he paints at some good value ..... but to his misfortune, for next two years there is draught in the state and the king has no money to buy the paintings ..... then what happens ..... an he realise what is due to him ..... and how does he survive in the intervening period ..... fiis paid astronomical prices for yr stocks .... but now it is a question of their survival ..... and they r dumping at throw away price ...... WHO CAN BUY now .... and absorb the qty that they r dumping ...... so better exit and move to debt funds or to bank FDs and wait patiently ......
madhav ranade (10/6/2008 9:39:43 AM): good morning ! now we hv to look at 3550/3700 which is very very important support zone ..... i dont think we r going to break that zone that easily ...... but god forbid, if that happens ...... we are opening ourselves to 1000 nifty points downside risk in the months to come ...... i know - nobody likes to hear this ..... but it is entirely possible ....... keep that in mind .... INSPITE OF WHAT WE LIKE TO HEAR, WE MUST LEARN TO FACTOR IN THE POSSIBILE DANGERS ...... OFCOURSE, ALL THIS IS SUBJECT TO 3550 BEING BROKEN ..... WHICH IS STILL AWAY .....
madhav ranade (10/6/2008 1:11:17 PM): as i said in the morning, i dont expect that 3550/3700 zone wl be broken so easily ...... but that does not mean this is a call to go long ...... all the way ..... some good stocks hv been battered out of shape ..... hv a look at those stocks and u may enter those and play for a bit of a bounce ..... but make sure u enter in extreme low p/e .... and good stocks ..... p/es btween 7 and 10 preferred ....... with a steady / good performance
madhav ranade (10/6/2008 1:27:33 PM): i read over the weekend that obama's future is linked to crude prices ... and both china and saudi ..... big investors in US gilts ...... want republican to win ..... hence crude wl remain subdued till 4th nov ... election day ..... china is supressing crude demand and saudi is unofficially pumping much more than what they r allowed by OPEC ...... winter wl start after 4th nov and no one wl be interested in suppressing crude ..... so crude wl zoom again .......
madhav ranade (10/3/2008 9:46:39 AM): good morning ! nuclear deal clearance in the senate is a non event. it is like clearing a bill in rajyasabha after already being cleared in loksabha. so dont get swayed by this newsbit which is flashing on frontpages of all newspapers. as regard to bailout package, the developments arereally intriguing. all newswires reports are suggesting that the bill is likely to be passed in congress. inspite of that dow sold off yesterday in abig way ..... may be wallstreet does not like a tweaked version ..... sgx is not giving any clue today ..... i feel we shud open about 40/50 points negative and drift to about 100 nifty points during day .... dpending on how dow futs behave .......
madhav ranade (10/3/2008 10:45:05 AM): US public mood is so bad as regards to bailout package is concerned that voters are calling lawmakers and stating that after spending 700 billion this year, they r sure that next year package will be a trillion - 1000 billion dollars .... that effectively sums up and explains why dow tanked yesterday ......
madhav ranade (10/3/2008 12:56:23 PM): now people r wondering whether 3717 bottom wl hold ...... i had said that day itself that people wasting time is predicting short term / midterm bottoms ...... unnecessary blah blah on channels ... any way they hv nothing else to say .....
madhav ranade (10/1/2008 9:49:43 AM): good morning ! yesterdays pullback was on the back of dow futs and 'gentle' persuation of govt owned DIIs by delhi ..... then the result is obvious ..... it is always easy to buy with someone eles money ..... isnt it ?????? the bailout bill is being tabled in senate today evening at 7.30 us time ...... some rate cuts and few other things like increased deposit limit is being added ..... these democrats dislike ..... moreover some congressmaen are annoyed that senate is taking lead and trying to force congress's hand .....it is like rajyasabha forcing losabha ..... there r some more distubing developments .... i wl write a few mins later .......
madhav ranade (10/1/2008 10:04:12 AM): US problems ...... what is more damaging some change in accounting regulations sought by some congressmen .... they want SEC to tweak the rules so that banks dont hv to take mark to market losses ..... this is like the bonds treated by our banks which r HTM - held till maturity - catagory ..... holding US treasury bills like HTM is one thing and taking same stand on mortgage based securities is entirely another kettle of fish ..... just imagine some of these can fetch u not even 20 cents to a dollar now ...... ex goldman sachs CEO and current treasury secretary paulsen wl be rubbing his hands in glee ..... if this is passedby sec .... change in accounting .... then he can buy all the bad debts at face value and all wallstreet firms and all banks wl make windfall gains at the cost of tax payers ...... moreover this wl be a very damaging precedent for the world economies ..... SEC is reluctant but finally u never know what kind of pressures the govt and the lawmakers can put on these so called 'independent' regulators ...... watch out .......
madhav ranade (10/1/2008 11:01:22 AM): govt intervention in RIL / RNRL case ...... this i interpret as negative to both the parties ...... rnrl interests are clearly undermined and as usual market wl take note when some white sinned brokerage wl say that ..... as far as RIL is concerned, it takes away complete pricing power from the company ...... this has to be a major negative factor .... particularly with amarsingh hand dominant in the current govt set-up ...... pl take yr own call on both the stocks ......
madhav ranade (10/7/2008 9:52:37 AM): good morning ! i had mentioned yesterday that i see 3550/3700 as a major support zone ...... and it will be not so easy to break that ..... so, we hv some announcements like p notes / crr and we wl se a bounce today ...... i had also mentioned that get into some stocks where u see value .... i hope u hv bought something ..... there is no point in simply sitting on sidelines ......
madhav ranade (10/7/2008 1:07:38 PM): looks like TATACHEM is taking a double knock ..... all fertiliser stocks hv collapsed and collapse of tata stocks are reflecting on tatachem treasury holding value also ..... but still at this price it looks extremely attractive ............ 175 / 190 looks a good support zone ..... u can buy the stock from short as well as medium term perspective .....
madhav ranade (10/7/2008 1:50:15 PM): the way the markets are falling all over the world ..... it looks like that we were better off without this FII menace ..... atleast we knew our jokers and we knew rules of the game ...... may be that is what bhave meant when he said we need to restructure the whole FII regime ...... the picture worldwide is looking extremely grim ...... and MF fund investors shud seriously start thinking taking money out of equity schemes and shift to debt ..... this is a must to protect yr gains .... atleast pull out 40/50 % of the amount ..... it is better to be safe than sorry .............. even if u hv no profits in MFs, even capital preservation is equally important ...... so pull out even if u r making losses ...... cances yr ECS mandates for SIPs also ...... there is no point throwing good money behind bad money ...... our economy may be in good shape but without FII money what valuations yr stocks can get ............... think like that ...... if FIIs pull out another 5 billion USD, we wl go down by 25/30 % .... even from these levels ..... and then all yr dreams built on prospects of super equity gains will evaporate in thin air ......i am not painting a grim scenario for the sake of it but just sharing my humble thoughts .... which i know are 180 degree opposit to fund managers who just dont want u to sell ....... when there is delivery based selling .... banning shorts also does not work ..... look at US / UK ...... for me 3550 is an important level ... and may be it wl be protected on closing basis ..... but how long ..... and i am making u think as i know that such important decisions can not be taken on spur of the moment ..... so think, think hard and come to a conclusion before the weak is out ...... god bless you .......
madhav ranade (10/7/2008 2:32:39 PM): on all parameters a certain stock may look good ...... but there has to be a buyer ..... look at it like this a new painter with skills 10 times better than MF hussein starts painting ..... he expects to fetch a better price than hussein since his paintings are inherently better ...... and the king of that state has agreed to buy whatever he paints at some good value ..... but to his misfortune, for next two years there is draught in the state and the king has no money to buy the paintings ..... then what happens ..... an he realise what is due to him ..... and how does he survive in the intervening period ..... fiis paid astronomical prices for yr stocks .... but now it is a question of their survival ..... and they r dumping at throw away price ...... WHO CAN BUY now .... and absorb the qty that they r dumping ...... so better exit and move to debt funds or to bank FDs and wait patiently ......
madhav ranade (10/6/2008 9:39:43 AM): good morning ! now we hv to look at 3550/3700 which is very very important support zone ..... i dont think we r going to break that zone that easily ...... but god forbid, if that happens ...... we are opening ourselves to 1000 nifty points downside risk in the months to come ...... i know - nobody likes to hear this ..... but it is entirely possible ....... keep that in mind .... INSPITE OF WHAT WE LIKE TO HEAR, WE MUST LEARN TO FACTOR IN THE POSSIBILE DANGERS ...... OFCOURSE, ALL THIS IS SUBJECT TO 3550 BEING BROKEN ..... WHICH IS STILL AWAY .....
madhav ranade (10/6/2008 1:11:17 PM): as i said in the morning, i dont expect that 3550/3700 zone wl be broken so easily ...... but that does not mean this is a call to go long ...... all the way ..... some good stocks hv been battered out of shape ..... hv a look at those stocks and u may enter those and play for a bit of a bounce ..... but make sure u enter in extreme low p/e .... and good stocks ..... p/es btween 7 and 10 preferred ....... with a steady / good performance
madhav ranade (10/6/2008 1:27:33 PM): i read over the weekend that obama's future is linked to crude prices ... and both china and saudi ..... big investors in US gilts ...... want republican to win ..... hence crude wl remain subdued till 4th nov ... election day ..... china is supressing crude demand and saudi is unofficially pumping much more than what they r allowed by OPEC ...... winter wl start after 4th nov and no one wl be interested in suppressing crude ..... so crude wl zoom again .......
madhav ranade (10/3/2008 9:46:39 AM): good morning ! nuclear deal clearance in the senate is a non event. it is like clearing a bill in rajyasabha after already being cleared in loksabha. so dont get swayed by this newsbit which is flashing on frontpages of all newspapers. as regard to bailout package, the developments arereally intriguing. all newswires reports are suggesting that the bill is likely to be passed in congress. inspite of that dow sold off yesterday in abig way ..... may be wallstreet does not like a tweaked version ..... sgx is not giving any clue today ..... i feel we shud open about 40/50 points negative and drift to about 100 nifty points during day .... dpending on how dow futs behave .......
madhav ranade (10/3/2008 10:45:05 AM): US public mood is so bad as regards to bailout package is concerned that voters are calling lawmakers and stating that after spending 700 billion this year, they r sure that next year package will be a trillion - 1000 billion dollars .... that effectively sums up and explains why dow tanked yesterday ......
madhav ranade (10/3/2008 12:56:23 PM): now people r wondering whether 3717 bottom wl hold ...... i had said that day itself that people wasting time is predicting short term / midterm bottoms ...... unnecessary blah blah on channels ... any way they hv nothing else to say .....
madhav ranade (10/1/2008 9:49:43 AM): good morning ! yesterdays pullback was on the back of dow futs and 'gentle' persuation of govt owned DIIs by delhi ..... then the result is obvious ..... it is always easy to buy with someone eles money ..... isnt it ?????? the bailout bill is being tabled in senate today evening at 7.30 us time ...... some rate cuts and few other things like increased deposit limit is being added ..... these democrats dislike ..... moreover some congressmaen are annoyed that senate is taking lead and trying to force congress's hand .....it is like rajyasabha forcing losabha ..... there r some more distubing developments .... i wl write a few mins later .......
madhav ranade (10/1/2008 10:04:12 AM): US problems ...... what is more damaging some change in accounting regulations sought by some congressmen .... they want SEC to tweak the rules so that banks dont hv to take mark to market losses ..... this is like the bonds treated by our banks which r HTM - held till maturity - catagory ..... holding US treasury bills like HTM is one thing and taking same stand on mortgage based securities is entirely another kettle of fish ..... just imagine some of these can fetch u not even 20 cents to a dollar now ...... ex goldman sachs CEO and current treasury secretary paulsen wl be rubbing his hands in glee ..... if this is passedby sec .... change in accounting .... then he can buy all the bad debts at face value and all wallstreet firms and all banks wl make windfall gains at the cost of tax payers ...... moreover this wl be a very damaging precedent for the world economies ..... SEC is reluctant but finally u never know what kind of pressures the govt and the lawmakers can put on these so called 'independent' regulators ...... watch out .......
madhav ranade (10/1/2008 11:01:22 AM): govt intervention in RIL / RNRL case ...... this i interpret as negative to both the parties ...... rnrl interests are clearly undermined and as usual market wl take note when some white sinned brokerage wl say that ..... as far as RIL is concerned, it takes away complete pricing power from the company ...... this has to be a major negative factor .... particularly with amarsingh hand dominant in the current govt set-up ...... pl take yr own call on both the stocks ......
yahoo messenger archives - 19th / 30th sept 2008
archives of important messages posted from 19th / 30th september 2008
madhav ranade (9/30/2008 9:54:19 AM): good morning ! i expect a 3/max 4 % lower opening .... anything more will be overreaction .... shorts are banned virtually all over asia and that is why the fall shud be muted ..... buy value stocks like siemens / lt / bharti / mrpl / tatachem etc at lows or near lows ..... dont chase momentum ...... best of luck ......
madhav ranade (9/30/2008 12:24:58 PM): did anyone hear mecklai jamal about rupee movement prediction ..... he had guts to say that i dont know and anyone who is trying to predict is bluffing ..... we r in a similar flux in stockmarket as well .... but except shankar sharma and damni ... all are paying only lip service by saying what masses like to hear ..... these r turncoats and we shud keep away from them .... weathercock is more stable than these guys ........
madhav ranade (9/30/2008 3:23:01 PM): i am just coming online ..... i presume the market is moving up in the hope of 0.5 % rate cut ...... the moot point is how it wl help our market ...... in the past, the rate cut means the money wl flow out of US ..... looking for better bargains .... now the situation is that all FIIs are struggling to make two ends meet ..... they do not hv any surplus which wl flow to EMs ..... any way, market is rejoicing the possibility .... we wl get ready with our view and buy puts ..... if there is no rate cut, themarkets may tank tomorrow, when we wl reap the harvest ..... if there is a rate cut, the white skin people wl tell the bulls, sorry we hv no money to put in india .... may be they wl tell 2 days later .... we wl hv to wait that long ....... what we r risking is max 20/30 rs ....
madhav ranade (9/30/2008 4:10:02 PM): US lawmakers ..... equivalent to our parliament / assembly members ..... hv shown that they listen to the voters voice ..... that is why they refused to sanction the bailout package at taxpayers expense ... when we wl hv such a day .... when we wl hv such sensitive and sensible lawmakers ..... that day will be a soniyacha diwas ... a golden day in our polity ......
madhav ranade (9/26/2008 9:51:09 AM): good morning ! sgx is indicating negative opening but i feel we r going to hv moderately positive opening as bulls wud like to play on inflation news ...... they wl wait for any further developments on US front about the bailout package .... later in the day ....
madhav ranade (9/29/2008 9:51:53 AM): good morning ! the contours of bailout package hv changed substantially ...... this has not enthused the asian markets at all ..... they hv been neutral with slightly negative bias ...... we also may start the same way and drift lower ......
madhav ranade (9/29/2008 9:56:03 AM): after wasington mutual, now the focus is on wachovia ... and citi is named as a possible suitor ....... which itself is leveraged 40 plus times .... so on the brink .....
madhav ranade (9/26/2008 10:15:16 AM): i had expected a much better showing from bulls but what we r seeing is a reaction in line with dow futures .... again it becomes clear who is calling the shots .....
madhav ranade (9/26/2008 2:51:05 PM): today, i am getting a feeling that bears r not pressing ..... aware that there may be a bailout package announcement over the weekend ...... but market is till drifting as bulls r not willing to take charge ...... they made tonnes and tonnes of money in last 4 yrs ..... so i dont think they r lacking in resources ..... but may be the spirit is not willing ....
madhav ranade (9/25/2008 9:50:58 AM): good morning ! as expected, it is turning out to be an uneventful week .... today we may hv some additional volatility induced by rxpiry considerations .... but thtas about all ....
madhav ranade (9/25/2008 3:21:46 PM): market does not seem to hv any strength or momentum ..... in table tennis terms ......u r getting a absolute dead ball ... with no spin on it .... it becomes very difficult to hit that ball although it may look very easy ...... it just hangs in the air ......
madhav ranade (9/24/2008 10:26:36 AM): very hard fought debate is going on hawkish US lawmakers from both parties and BUSH administration about the bailout package ..... and the contours of the package are changing every hour ..... after buffet and mitsubishi hv taken stake in goldman and morgan respectively, there are people in US who r doubting whether the bailout package is really reqd ....... we hv to wait and watch what finally comes out on friday ...... as usual it wl hv huge ramifications ..... and amplified one ..... on all asian markets including india .....
madhav ranade (9/24/2008 9:49:00 AM): good morning ! warren buffet is taking stake in goldman and that has set dow futs on fire ...... that is why asian markets are showing a moderate bounce ..... this will be reflected on our markets as well..... we will dance to US tunes .... even to future tunes ......
madhav ranade (9/24/2008 10:21:28 AM): i dont like to comment on individuals .... but this fellow PN VIJAY ..... i dont know how many times in last 7/8 months he has said that indian market is over the 'humps' and we r still making lowere lows and lower highs ...... i dont know why such speakers are invited who cant even change the phrases over a period of time ...... simply ridiculous .......
madhav ranade (9/23/2008 9:48:15 AM): good morning ! so, euphoria is over ..... it seems like that ..... on friday when i was asking to cut naked longs, there were many - who were overly bullish - sort of chuckling in their cheeks ...... but as i said time and again - i prefer to err on the side of caution because .... CAPITAL NEEDS TO BE RESPECTED AND PRESERVED infact i had suggested to buy 4100 puts ... and it wud give u decent returns today ....
madhav ranade (9/22/2008 9:52:53 AM): good morning ! a moderately positive opening ..... more because of inertia than anything else ..... some profit taking expected ...... generally this week will be an uneventful week from now on unless some dramatic development happens in US .....madhav ranade (9/22/2008 9:56:15 AM): goldman and morgan stanley hv asked for change in status from IBANK to bank holding cos and the requst is granted ..... that means now there is no large IBANK on wall street .... now both goldman and morgan wl follow normal banking regulations ... they wl now come under pirview of FED .... earlier they were under SEC
madhav ranade (9/22/2008 3:20:20 PM): BAILOUT package ..... reverse auction likely to be used ..... packets of 10 billion dollar will be auctioned at a time ...... average realisation likely to be in the range of 50 to 65 cents out of a dollar ...... so u can imagine the amount of losses that wl be taken on books ... these wl be one time losses .... it is expected that some balancesheets wl get completely wiped out if they wl book these losses .... so those entities may prefer to continue as it is ..... that is also a possibility ...... all above is still speculative since no one knows finally what wl be cleared by congress ......
madhav ranade (9/19/2008 9:53:45 AM): good morning ! will be infact a great morning .... i wl not be surprised to see even 4325/4340 levels on nifty spot ..... sometime during the day .... remember we r an immature market and overdo things both ways ..... i will still hold back any long commitments till we see a definite announcement by US govt ..... i dont mind missing 50/100 points on nifty because if nothing concrete happens we can might as well fall like a stone .......
madhav ranade (9/19/2008 10:01:51 AM): i am disappointed with the opening to say the least ..... inspite of projection of strength in the market ... from everyone who came on tv channels today .... the market is subdued ... and that is intriguing ...... i think FIIs wl take opportunity to press fresh shorts since market is not showing strength as expected ... let us wait and watch
madhav ranade (9/19/2008 10:39:41 AM): short sales banned in US and UK ( only financial stocks ) ..... this means many hedge funds will hv to be wound up ... in short now the govt wants ' long only ' funds to operate which is entirely absurd ..... RTC kind of entity will mean that all profits have been privatised and all losses ... which r happening now .... wl be socialised ...... USA is going the older USSR way ...... isnt it ????? i think worst than that ....in USSR the profits were not privatised ....... may be profits were never made ....... any comments ???
madhav ranade (9/19/2008 3:13:38 PM): rallies u r seeing in US and UK market is due to technical reasons like banning of short sell etc ...... if short sells is banned in our market, we wud hv crossed 4700/4800 by now ..... we know that these technical factors work for a few days and if the fundamentals dont improve during that time .... we r back to square one ..... keep that in mind ......
madhav ranade (9/19/2008 3:18:24 PM): before banning shorts in india, govt will hv to accept that our FIs are at risk of default .... which they hv ben denying all thru ... and it is a fact as well ... so i see no chance that shots will be banned in india ..... DONT LIVE IN THAT WONDERLAND .....
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