6th December 2008
Last week, the news-flow regarding ‘stimulus’ package - both monetary / fiscal – kept the pot boiling. As I write, we have got one percent cut in repo and reverse repo rate from RBI with no changes in SLR / CRR. I think this may be just short of market expectation. We will see a rather muted response next week unless we have some BIG surprises in fiscal package.
Another important development was Chiddu leaving finance ministry. Chiddu was the architect of this mother of all bull runs and now he is no more to fight the proxy battle for the bulls. I had sensed that something was amiss between real estate honchos and finance ministry for last couple of months and ‘builder’s lobby’ has finally managed to shunt Chiddu out. He himself made known his ‘disinclination’ for home ministry. Now he has all the power but ……
US markets have been ambivalent for the last week and the investors seem to be hoping Obama to wield a magic wand when he takes over. I think the problems are beyond any single person to make any substantive difference. Shanghai and Hong Kong markets are looking promising but I expect some nasty surprises to come from UK / Europe in coming few months.
We have traded last week in a very tight range of 150 nifty points with attempted breakouts – one each – on either side. A clear break-out can give a 150 points sharp move and then we have to wait further signal for continuation of the move. I will prefer to trade in options in such a scenario with a lower bias.
I am looking at a rather grim 2009 and must state that CASH IS ABSOLUTELY KING.
I feel the 27th October lows may hold in the short term but in the medium term we are bound to seek new lows and much lower lows.
29th November 2008
Last week, we saw most dastardly attack on Mumbai by terrorists. The modus operandi gives an indication of involvement of AL-QAIDA. We have never seen direct involvement of this most dreaded terror outfit in any of the earlier terrorist strikes in India. This will raise certain doubts in the minds of international investment community further delaying the recovery on Indian bourses.
US markets have posted straight five gains from sub-7500 level hit last week. Some correction is now on the cards and resonance in Asian markets will be obvious.
All financials in US markets are trading much lower than the levels prevailing when TARP bailout was announced and that shows no conviction from investors. Something similar is brewing in our markets too. SBI may be the stock to watch as it can easily slide 10/15 % lower from current levels pulling down the whole banking sector.
We have traded last week in a very tight range of 150 nifty points and a break-out on either side can give a 150 points sharp move and further signal for continuation of the move. I will prefer to trade in options in such a scenario with a lower bias.
There is absolutely no point to look for investment opportunities in such a highly volatile market – at best you can take a trading long position somewhere midway into the rally - there is no way you can enter at the beginning as the move is so swift - and try to exit at decent profit of 5 to 7 %. A STRICT / TIGHT STOPLOSS is the order of the day.
I am looking at a rather grim 2009 and must state that CASH IS ABSOLUTELY KING.
I feel the 27th October lows may hold in the short term but in the medium term we are bound to seek new lows and much lower lows.
22nd November 2008
Last week, all three US indices posted new lows – lower than October 10th lows which were considered as impregnable just a few weeks ago. Everyone had a feeling that 10th October was an aberration –but it was not to be so. Some European indices also gave new lows and most of the asian indices also moved perilously close to those October levels.
The intermittent rallies are sharp but they are sold into so savagely that I get a feeling that these are orchestrated or stage-managed by wily bears so that they get better levels to sell into.
There is absolutely no point to look for investment opportunities in such a highly volatile market – at best you can take a trading long position somewhere midway into the rally - there is no way you can enter at the beginning as the move is so swift - and try to exit at decent profit of 5 to 7 %. A STRICT / TIGHT STOPLOSS is the order of the day.
Indian banking industry – along with capital goods – was forerunner of the mother of all rallies from May 2003/ January 2008. Capital goods are distinct underperformers already now and banking is going to have horrendous time in the next few quarters. Keep that in mind for sure.
I am looking at a rather grim 2009 and must state that CASH IS ABSOLUTELY KING.
I feel the 27th October lows may hold in the short term but in the medium term we are bound to seek new lows and much lower lows.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Saturday, November 22, 2008
archives of what i wrote in The Economic Revolution
15th november 2008
We had a truncated week – 4 day trading week and Monday was a 6 % plus day. Inspite of that we managed to close the week 5 % down. That shows that what I had stated about not being convinced about the upmove is absolutely correct. FIIs have resumed selling as expected and retail investors are running helter-skelter for cover.
G 20 meeting over the weekend holds the key – it seems. But I am very skeptical about any kind of monetary or fiscal stimulus that the government may announce as per commitments made at G 20 meet.
Our economy is plagued by short term foreign currency debt raised by corporates – in the form of ECBs and FCCBs - and white sharks are lurking to pounce when huge repayments have to be made over the next 8 months upto mid 2009 putting severe pressure on foreign exchange reserves and correspondingly the exchange rate.
I am looking at a rather grim 2009 and must state that CASH IS ABSOLUTELY KING.
I feel the 27th October lows may hold in the short term but in the medium term we are bound to seek new lows and much lower lows.
8th november 2008
The rally fizzled out midweek - in US as well as in our markets – and is again trying to gather some steam by end of the week. I am not convinced about the strength of the up-move. FII selling seems to have tapered down but it can resume any day and we will start to slide again.
One thing came out of things that have happened in the last ten days. RBI seems to have lost its independence and now it can be called as a wing of the finance ministry. The writing was on the wall when Dr Reddy was not given the extension and he was replaced by a secretary in the finance ministry. The current FM wants to go out on a high and he needed a ‘pliant’ RBI governor which he has got now.
WILL IT BE A TURN OF SEBI NEXT ? ? ?
1st november 2008
The preceding two weeks have seen a major upheaval in Indian markets. It was inconceivable at the beginning of the month that we will see a drop of 45 % at index level. I was predicting levels of 2550/2700 but these levels came rather too soon and even surpassed.
We have seen a rather strong SEBI / RBI intervention over the weekend and we should cross 3000 level on nifty on Monday. The moot point is that whether we can hold these levels with any conviction if FII selling continues unabated.
I have a strong feeling that lows of last Monday – 27th October will hold as bottom for some time to come. But the point is that we have moved up rather sharply and including the coming Mondays gain, we would have moved nearly 40 % from the 27th October low. This will be unsustainable and we will give up half of those gains which will again take us to 2550/2700 levels. From there-on the recovery can start in the right earnest.
18th october 2008
The world markets seem to have started stabilizing although intraday volatility is still high. This volatility must subside considerably before we can talk of any short term / midterm bottom.
Our markets are still in a ‘strong sell’ mode as new lows are being made virtually every day. There has been a major downward shift in earnings expectations for the next four quarters and that is casting a dark shadow on our markets along with continuous selling by FIIs. .
This week we may have some bounce … and a pronounced one … if SEBI takes some action about lending of stocks by P-note holders. This bounce should be used to exit longs as the sellers can / will find some other way to continue ‘shorts’.
We are going to see 2550/2700 nifty levels in the coming months so don’t go overboard with your buy orders …. Keep looking at value …. just forget momentum ….. it is a ‘bad’ word in existing scenario …. Remember the analogy of sharing a rescue boat with an elephant ……
11th october 2008
Mayhem that we have seen last week around the world markets have not been witnessed since the great depression of 1930s. In 1987 October, when black Friday occurred, the world markets were not so well integrated that echoes will be heard in every nook and corner.
Last week, I had mentioned that look at the global markets as our markets will simply replicate whatever happens there asides a small show of strength from time to time which will be sold into.
This week we may have some stability and a small bounce …. Not more than 5 to 7 % …. Can not be ruled out …… we r going to see 2550/2700 nifty levels in the coming months so don’t go overboard with your buy orders …. Keep looking at value …. just forget momentum ….. it is a ‘bad’ word in existing scenario …. Remember the analogy of sharing a rescue boat with an elephant ……
4th october 2008
A tweaked bailout package was finally cleared by US senate and congress. The Wall street was not enthused and greeted same by closing approx 450 points lower than days high … overall the week was bad for US market …. Closing with major losses over the week …… I am dwelling so much on US markets because that is the single most factor to which the world markets are rhyming …. Remember the analogy of sharing a rescue boat with an elephant ……
27th september 2008
As expected US rally lost steam midweek and echoes were heard on wall street. It is expected that the bail-out package will be cleared by the US congress by Sunday evening and details must be available bt Monday morning before asian markets open – it is widely expected that the asian markets will tank if no deal is announced by then.
20th september 2008
Finally US govt has acted accepting that desperate situations need desperate measures. Short sales are banned in US and UK triggering a massive short covering rally. This week, US govt will also declare a massive bailout programme buy taking over all bad loans on their books. This means institutions hv to take onetime BIG BIG writedowns. We will watch very closely future developments but this rally also should peter out soon.
yahoo messenger archives from 10th / 21st nov 2008
madhav ranade (11/21/2008 10:07:20 AM): something has happened in last half an hour .... all asian markets hv snapped back .... ad so does our market ....... for nifty spot .... 2605/2615 is crucial zone and for reliance 1065/1075 ...... pl watch out .......
madhav ranade (11/21/2008 9:36:53 AM): good morning ! my worst fears seem to be coming true .... and rather too soon ....... at this rate, i really wonder where we will be at xmas new year time .......
madhav ranade (11/20/2008 9:49:46 AM): good morning ! our 2550/2700 range will be consumed today ... we shud see levels of 2500/2510 in first few mins and that can be a good long entry point for trades with sl of about 30/40 points ...... i expect profit taking to pull up nifty to about 2540/50 in quick time ...... investors can look to buy a bit of their favourits ...... at these index levels ... this wl be a good averaging opportunities for deliveries taken at much higher rates ..... in any case make sure that u dont put in more than 15 / 20 % of your investible funds available with you ..... pl read my comments in my article dt 15th nov uploaded in a file on my free group .... http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/sumamura-free/
madhav ranade (11/19/2008 9:54:22 AM): good morning ! flat open with a downward bias ..... wait to go short on a bounce ..... definite shorting level closer - as far as possible - to 2780/90 ... or when u see downward momentum building up .......
madhav ranade (11/18/2008 2:56:38 PM): brokers and bull operators created a bogie of stocklending by FIIs .... chandu bhave staved off all the pressure put on him .... evem from FINMIN ..... for obvious reasons .... and his stand is vindicated now ...... three cheers to chandu for all the guts shown ......
madhav ranade (11/18/2008 3:19:18 PM): if US auto cos wl go bankrupt .... we will see 2003 lows ... like 900 on nifty and 3000 on sensex ..... it wl not happen ..... prospect of 3 million job losses is daunting for any govt .... 25 billion is not a big amount compared to that .......
madhav ranade (11/17/2008 9:47:55 AM): good morning ! dow futs hv turned positive in last one hour which has given glimmer of hope for the bulls .... RBI announcements over weekend hv been generally positive but how much the banks will implement is a moot point to be noted ....... my levels tell a lot than what i can elaborate and they r uploaded in 15th nov file uploaded on my free group http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/sumamura-free/
madhav ranade (11/14/2008 10:30:09 AM): dow / nasdaq rally ...... 25 % of the rally came on exxon / chevron ..... oil stocks .... another 25 % .... on google / apple ..... tech rally may not survive and crude has become extremely fickle commodity .... what i mean is that gains may notsustain over next few days ..... keeping that in mind be cautious .....
madhav ranade (11/12/2008 9:52:10 AM): good morning ! sgx nifty is indicating a weak opening .... but not a major gap down ...... IIP nos shud hold the key .... if IIP nos are better than expected, we wl hv a bounce butthat shud be used to sell rather than to buy .... excise collections are showing that october was bad ... and a good sept figure will guarantee catastrophe in october ...... overall picture is not at all good and dont depend on govt to announce any fiscal stimulus as we simply have no resources to do that ..... thanks to chiddu who wagered in february - for the fifth time .... but unfortunately bet has gone against and he stands to lose whatever he made in 4 earlier years ....... politically i mean .....
madhav ranade (11/11/2008 2:51:20 PM): moral of the story is tiger balm does not cure cancer ..... only wherever it is applied .... skin becomes more fragile and burnt .......
madhav ranade (11/11/2008 11:26:06 AM): everyone was saying that buffet is positive on market ...... what did he do .... he loaned goldman 3 billion dollars at 10 % and took warrants to be converted at 115 dollars a share with in 5 yrs ...... HE DID NOT BUY A SINGLE SHARE ....... he really acted like a local pawnbroker who exploits poor when they r in need ...... 10 % is a very high interest rate in US and that too for corporate lending .......
madhav ranade (11/10/2008 9:55:42 AM): good morning ! chinese 'tiger balm' is now being tried out ... and for what - CANCER ...... everyone know efficacy ......
madhav ranade (11/21/2008 9:36:53 AM): good morning ! my worst fears seem to be coming true .... and rather too soon ....... at this rate, i really wonder where we will be at xmas new year time .......
madhav ranade (11/20/2008 9:49:46 AM): good morning ! our 2550/2700 range will be consumed today ... we shud see levels of 2500/2510 in first few mins and that can be a good long entry point for trades with sl of about 30/40 points ...... i expect profit taking to pull up nifty to about 2540/50 in quick time ...... investors can look to buy a bit of their favourits ...... at these index levels ... this wl be a good averaging opportunities for deliveries taken at much higher rates ..... in any case make sure that u dont put in more than 15 / 20 % of your investible funds available with you ..... pl read my comments in my article dt 15th nov uploaded in a file on my free group .... http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/sumamura-free/
madhav ranade (11/19/2008 9:54:22 AM): good morning ! flat open with a downward bias ..... wait to go short on a bounce ..... definite shorting level closer - as far as possible - to 2780/90 ... or when u see downward momentum building up .......
madhav ranade (11/18/2008 2:56:38 PM): brokers and bull operators created a bogie of stocklending by FIIs .... chandu bhave staved off all the pressure put on him .... evem from FINMIN ..... for obvious reasons .... and his stand is vindicated now ...... three cheers to chandu for all the guts shown ......
madhav ranade (11/18/2008 3:19:18 PM): if US auto cos wl go bankrupt .... we will see 2003 lows ... like 900 on nifty and 3000 on sensex ..... it wl not happen ..... prospect of 3 million job losses is daunting for any govt .... 25 billion is not a big amount compared to that .......
madhav ranade (11/17/2008 9:47:55 AM): good morning ! dow futs hv turned positive in last one hour which has given glimmer of hope for the bulls .... RBI announcements over weekend hv been generally positive but how much the banks will implement is a moot point to be noted ....... my levels tell a lot than what i can elaborate and they r uploaded in 15th nov file uploaded on my free group http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/sumamura-free/
madhav ranade (11/14/2008 10:30:09 AM): dow / nasdaq rally ...... 25 % of the rally came on exxon / chevron ..... oil stocks .... another 25 % .... on google / apple ..... tech rally may not survive and crude has become extremely fickle commodity .... what i mean is that gains may notsustain over next few days ..... keeping that in mind be cautious .....
madhav ranade (11/12/2008 9:52:10 AM): good morning ! sgx nifty is indicating a weak opening .... but not a major gap down ...... IIP nos shud hold the key .... if IIP nos are better than expected, we wl hv a bounce butthat shud be used to sell rather than to buy .... excise collections are showing that october was bad ... and a good sept figure will guarantee catastrophe in october ...... overall picture is not at all good and dont depend on govt to announce any fiscal stimulus as we simply have no resources to do that ..... thanks to chiddu who wagered in february - for the fifth time .... but unfortunately bet has gone against and he stands to lose whatever he made in 4 earlier years ....... politically i mean .....
madhav ranade (11/11/2008 2:51:20 PM): moral of the story is tiger balm does not cure cancer ..... only wherever it is applied .... skin becomes more fragile and burnt .......
madhav ranade (11/11/2008 11:26:06 AM): everyone was saying that buffet is positive on market ...... what did he do .... he loaned goldman 3 billion dollars at 10 % and took warrants to be converted at 115 dollars a share with in 5 yrs ...... HE DID NOT BUY A SINGLE SHARE ....... he really acted like a local pawnbroker who exploits poor when they r in need ...... 10 % is a very high interest rate in US and that too for corporate lending .......
madhav ranade (11/10/2008 9:55:42 AM): good morning ! chinese 'tiger balm' is now being tried out ... and for what - CANCER ...... everyone know efficacy ......
yahoo messenger archives from 31st oct / 7th nov 2008
madhav ranade (11/7/2008 9:55:11 AM): good morning ! wednesday morning i had mentioned about the problems i was anticipating on US charts .... and how true was that .... a flttish opening with a slightly downward bias expected ...... eventually we wl get to 2550/2700 zone again .... may be in 2 days may be in a week .... and we shud plan to invest some money at that time ......
madhav ranade (11/7/2008 10:25:53 AM): fridays and yesterdays fall ...... i noticed that the stocks which had run very hard on the back of shortcovering by FII fear, hv fallen the most. that implies that FIIs hv created shorts in same stocks in some other way .... infact they will be happy that the could cover at lower levels and reopen shorts at higher levels ...... by intervening in the market too often .... we r giving opportunity to shortsellers to continue trading like this ......
madhav ranade (11/4/2008 10:19:08 AM): i feel that nearly 50 % of FII short covering is over and we will be back to normal trading from today ...... what happened on last 3 days shud be taken as an aberration and good opportunity to make some quick opportunistic gains. this is what i wrote on 1st evening - The preceding two weeks have seen a major upheaval in Indian markets. It was inconceivable at the beginning of the month that we will see a drop of 45 % at index level. I was predicting levels of 2550/2700 but these levels came rather too soon and even surpassed. We have seen a rather strong SEBI / RBI intervention over the weekend and we should cross 3000 level on nifty on Monday. The moot point is that whether we can hold these levels with any conviction if FII selling continues unabated. ..... I have a strong feeling that lows of last Monday – 27th October will hold as bottom for some time to come. But the point is that we have moved up rather sharply and including the coming Mondays gain, we would have moved nearly 40 % from the 27th October low. This will be unsustainable and we will give up half of those gains which will again take us to 2550/2700 levels. From there-on the recovery can start in the right earnest.
madhav ranade (11/3/2008 10:32:55 AM): somebody is saying total FII SLB posn is 6300 crores ..... in some stocks it may be high compared to total average deliveries but overall it is not HUUUUUUUUUUUGE considering that it has been built over last 3/4 months .....and that is why chandu bhave is not pulling the trigger .... may be .....
madhav ranade (11/7/2008 10:25:53 AM): fridays and yesterdays fall ...... i noticed that the stocks which had run very hard on the back of shortcovering by FII fear, hv fallen the most. that implies that FIIs hv created shorts in same stocks in some other way .... infact they will be happy that the could cover at lower levels and reopen shorts at higher levels ...... by intervening in the market too often .... we r giving opportunity to shortsellers to continue trading like this ......
madhav ranade (11/4/2008 10:19:08 AM): i feel that nearly 50 % of FII short covering is over and we will be back to normal trading from today ...... what happened on last 3 days shud be taken as an aberration and good opportunity to make some quick opportunistic gains. this is what i wrote on 1st evening - The preceding two weeks have seen a major upheaval in Indian markets. It was inconceivable at the beginning of the month that we will see a drop of 45 % at index level. I was predicting levels of 2550/2700 but these levels came rather too soon and even surpassed. We have seen a rather strong SEBI / RBI intervention over the weekend and we should cross 3000 level on nifty on Monday. The moot point is that whether we can hold these levels with any conviction if FII selling continues unabated. ..... I have a strong feeling that lows of last Monday – 27th October will hold as bottom for some time to come. But the point is that we have moved up rather sharply and including the coming Mondays gain, we would have moved nearly 40 % from the 27th October low. This will be unsustainable and we will give up half of those gains which will again take us to 2550/2700 levels. From there-on the recovery can start in the right earnest.
madhav ranade (11/3/2008 10:32:55 AM): somebody is saying total FII SLB posn is 6300 crores ..... in some stocks it may be high compared to total average deliveries but overall it is not HUUUUUUUUUUUGE considering that it has been built over last 3/4 months .....and that is why chandu bhave is not pulling the trigger .... may be .....
Thursday, October 30, 2008
yahoo messenger archives - 27th / 29th oct 2008
madhav ranade (10/29/2008 9:52:58 AM): good morning ! SAAL MUBARAK to all my gujju friends ...... enjoy yr day .... a pop in the morning is on but my posn trading long level of 2873 is far away and i dont think it will be reached .... dow has moved up sharply on expectation of rate cut and now expectation is 0.75 to 1 % cut .... that wl put fed rate below what greenspan did ...... so looks rather difficult to me and then there is every chance of US markets getting spooked .... with all above logic, i think we wl hv a modestly higher close today .... keeping in mind tomorrows holiday ..... so morning pop is to exit stuck longs or profit booking ... whichever way u look at it .......
madhav ranade (10/29/2008 11:01:07 AM): those who went long on GMR yesterday ..... are getting a royal screw ......... i think they asked for it ....... so deserve it .........
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madhav ranade (10/28/2008 6:11:55 PM): good evening ! wishing happy diwali and prosperous new year ..... and let us hope we will not have any excesses of the last year ..... on the long as well as on the short side .... and regulators will be fair to bulls as well as the bears ...... and it wont be one way street for chiddu and everyone coming the otherway will be looked at like a criminal ...... we are going to hv a smart little bounce and i hope it is a durable one ... as we r trading tomorrow as well ..... i expect about 80 to 100 nifty points ...... let us see how it plays out ......
madhav ranade (10/28/2008 6:50:32 PM): ntpc is running ...... lets wait till tomorrow ..... but this show of strength is playing into hands of bears ..... i reiterate results are nothing to cheer about .... so if u hv built longs ... sell in strength and take home profits ......
madhav ranade (10/28/2008 6:57:44 PM): MRPL ...... due to dismal qtly results the stock has dipped ..... shud be treated as an opportunity to accumulate at a reasonable level ......
madhav ranade (10/28/2008 7:05:19 PM): US has opened a bit subdued compared to futures indication and ......... may be some profit taking or long unwinding will happen in last 10 mins of trade ....... it is inevitable ....... and may be warranted as well .......
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madhav ranade (10/27/2008 9:42:09 AM): good morning ! so we r in the zone of 2550/2700 indicated 3 weeks ago ..... we hv reached it a bit too earlier than expected .... but even if 10 investors hv pulled out of MFs and saved 30 % that they wud hv otherwise lost, i think i have achieved something ..... now, we look at 2300/2400 zone as the next stop ...... my posn trading levels for nifty are 2573/2837 ...... so remain short if nifty trades below 2573 ..... exact sl and targets are sent to paid customers ....... cheers once again who hv listened to me and pulled out of MFs ......
madhav ranade (10/29/2008 11:01:07 AM): those who went long on GMR yesterday ..... are getting a royal screw ......... i think they asked for it ....... so deserve it .........
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madhav ranade (10/28/2008 6:11:55 PM): good evening ! wishing happy diwali and prosperous new year ..... and let us hope we will not have any excesses of the last year ..... on the long as well as on the short side .... and regulators will be fair to bulls as well as the bears ...... and it wont be one way street for chiddu and everyone coming the otherway will be looked at like a criminal ...... we are going to hv a smart little bounce and i hope it is a durable one ... as we r trading tomorrow as well ..... i expect about 80 to 100 nifty points ...... let us see how it plays out ......
madhav ranade (10/28/2008 6:50:32 PM): ntpc is running ...... lets wait till tomorrow ..... but this show of strength is playing into hands of bears ..... i reiterate results are nothing to cheer about .... so if u hv built longs ... sell in strength and take home profits ......
madhav ranade (10/28/2008 6:57:44 PM): MRPL ...... due to dismal qtly results the stock has dipped ..... shud be treated as an opportunity to accumulate at a reasonable level ......
madhav ranade (10/28/2008 7:05:19 PM): US has opened a bit subdued compared to futures indication and ......... may be some profit taking or long unwinding will happen in last 10 mins of trade ....... it is inevitable ....... and may be warranted as well .......
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madhav ranade (10/27/2008 9:42:09 AM): good morning ! so we r in the zone of 2550/2700 indicated 3 weeks ago ..... we hv reached it a bit too earlier than expected .... but even if 10 investors hv pulled out of MFs and saved 30 % that they wud hv otherwise lost, i think i have achieved something ..... now, we look at 2300/2400 zone as the next stop ...... my posn trading levels for nifty are 2573/2837 ...... so remain short if nifty trades below 2573 ..... exact sl and targets are sent to paid customers ....... cheers once again who hv listened to me and pulled out of MFs ......
yahoo messenger archives 20th / 24th oct 2008
madhav ranade (10/24/2008 9:44:40 AM): good morning ! usual gap down expected ..... what haunts me a supreme court lawyer goofing up so badly .... and can u call in unintentional ..... link it with steadfast 8 % gdp growth projections till last week ..... and everything falls in place ...... we dont need such people and do we deserve them ..... i think not ..... but that is our polity ....... RIL results were surprising to say the least ...... may be they hv taken credit of last qtr inventory profit this qtr .... that is dressing up .... it was suggested by tulsiyan when he analysed results last qtr ..... punj lloyd has still not booked the massive loss .... they seem to be hoping that they wl not hv to book it as they may be able to cover it up as the time goes by ..... is it prudent corporate governance ???? you take a call ......
madhav ranade (10/24/2008 10:42:29 AM): mr gautam .... JM financial is on cnbc ..... this guy was extremely bullish on dow when it was moving between 11000/11700 ... for nearly a month .... he was then predicting a new high for dow .... now he is talking of 7500 ....... beware of such extremists ....... he put all investors in trouble by painting a very rosy picture of indian market then and now he is spreading panic ..... be cautious .....
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madhav ranade (10/23/2008 9:36:26 AM): good morning ! i am back in pune .... all the talk of banning shorts was holding market on tuesday and channels were thinking that was 'strength ' ..... it has happened umteen no times that we hv taken the correct call inspite of what channels are telling to the masses .... this was one more instance .... today 2920 is crucial nifty spot level ... we hv to trade above that to show any strength ..... pl watch that .....
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 1:58:39 PM): just about 20 % of FII selling in last 2 weeks has come from borrowed shares .... which is not really very huge ..... as if to think that is the only point that is bugging indian market ...... we may hv a bounce for a day or two ...... but that shud be about all ... FIIs wl find push delivery based selling ....... if they hv to sell and then no one can stop them ......
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:08:32 PM): chiddu .... till last week ... kept on saying that 8 % gdp growth is possible ..... 2 days ago ... PM gives out a figure of 7 % ..... govt is behaving as if 1 % reduction in growth comes at no cost .... actually that acceptance of 7 % wud hv unnerved many FIIs as we will deliver closer to 6 % actually ....... look at it from this angle .... we r going to hv a lot of selling ..... not only from hedge funds but even from long only funds .... who hv now become jittery .... watch out .......
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:21:39 PM): how many of u hv read today that in next one year 89 billion dollars of short term loans will hv to be repaid .... just imagine what wl happen to dollar rupee rate ... and then what incentive long only funds hv to remain invested ..... is it not better they sell out now and comeback ... if they want to .... may be 3/4 quarters down the line when the dollar rupee rate is more favourable to them ... i am sure some FIIs wl take this call on INDIAN market as yr own PM has now acknoledged difficult times ahead ..... think and think really hard ......
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:30:57 PM): many of us are still thinking that the the problem that the market has can be treated OPD procedures like rate cut / shorts ban etc ..... actually patient needs to be admitted for long haul ... as the problem is rather serious and may be even fatal ...... pl understand .....i am trying to explain in many many different ways so that something will stick .... sooner the better .......
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:43:13 PM): SEBI is pushing to activate domestic LBM ... in that context it is absolutely skewed logic that u can borrow from LIC and short but u cant borrow from CALPERS ..... any comments ? ? ?
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:55:29 PM): bulls hv played out one more trump today ..... with no signficant and expected result ...... infact many of them only wud hv got trapped ...... now what remains is absolute short ban ... which wl result into either closure of futures market or only squaring allowed in futures .... if that happens ...most of the brokers wl go out of business as that is where the bulk of the brokerages are coming ......
* * *
madhav ranade (10/21/2008 2:46:51 PM): if chennai petro results is to be taken as an indicator ...... both RPL and RIL need to be sold imdtly ........ atleast caution is reqd to cut longs ..... both ar high weightage stocks on nifty .... so we wl hv obvious implications on nifty ......
madhav ranade (10/24/2008 10:42:29 AM): mr gautam .... JM financial is on cnbc ..... this guy was extremely bullish on dow when it was moving between 11000/11700 ... for nearly a month .... he was then predicting a new high for dow .... now he is talking of 7500 ....... beware of such extremists ....... he put all investors in trouble by painting a very rosy picture of indian market then and now he is spreading panic ..... be cautious .....
* * *
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 9:36:26 AM): good morning ! i am back in pune .... all the talk of banning shorts was holding market on tuesday and channels were thinking that was 'strength ' ..... it has happened umteen no times that we hv taken the correct call inspite of what channels are telling to the masses .... this was one more instance .... today 2920 is crucial nifty spot level ... we hv to trade above that to show any strength ..... pl watch that .....
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 1:58:39 PM): just about 20 % of FII selling in last 2 weeks has come from borrowed shares .... which is not really very huge ..... as if to think that is the only point that is bugging indian market ...... we may hv a bounce for a day or two ...... but that shud be about all ... FIIs wl find push delivery based selling ....... if they hv to sell and then no one can stop them ......
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:08:32 PM): chiddu .... till last week ... kept on saying that 8 % gdp growth is possible ..... 2 days ago ... PM gives out a figure of 7 % ..... govt is behaving as if 1 % reduction in growth comes at no cost .... actually that acceptance of 7 % wud hv unnerved many FIIs as we will deliver closer to 6 % actually ....... look at it from this angle .... we r going to hv a lot of selling ..... not only from hedge funds but even from long only funds .... who hv now become jittery .... watch out .......
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:21:39 PM): how many of u hv read today that in next one year 89 billion dollars of short term loans will hv to be repaid .... just imagine what wl happen to dollar rupee rate ... and then what incentive long only funds hv to remain invested ..... is it not better they sell out now and comeback ... if they want to .... may be 3/4 quarters down the line when the dollar rupee rate is more favourable to them ... i am sure some FIIs wl take this call on INDIAN market as yr own PM has now acknoledged difficult times ahead ..... think and think really hard ......
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:30:57 PM): many of us are still thinking that the the problem that the market has can be treated OPD procedures like rate cut / shorts ban etc ..... actually patient needs to be admitted for long haul ... as the problem is rather serious and may be even fatal ...... pl understand .....i am trying to explain in many many different ways so that something will stick .... sooner the better .......
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:43:13 PM): SEBI is pushing to activate domestic LBM ... in that context it is absolutely skewed logic that u can borrow from LIC and short but u cant borrow from CALPERS ..... any comments ? ? ?
madhav ranade (10/23/2008 2:55:29 PM): bulls hv played out one more trump today ..... with no signficant and expected result ...... infact many of them only wud hv got trapped ...... now what remains is absolute short ban ... which wl result into either closure of futures market or only squaring allowed in futures .... if that happens ...most of the brokers wl go out of business as that is where the bulk of the brokerages are coming ......
* * *
madhav ranade (10/21/2008 2:46:51 PM): if chennai petro results is to be taken as an indicator ...... both RPL and RIL need to be sold imdtly ........ atleast caution is reqd to cut longs ..... both ar high weightage stocks on nifty .... so we wl hv obvious implications on nifty ......
yahoo messenger archives - 13th / 17th oct 2008
madhav ranade (10/17/2008 9:53:20 AM): good morning ! a mildly positive opening and may be some small buildup after that .... thereafter usual dance to the dow fut tune ..... yesterday the cahannels are attributing rally to short covering ...... rally happened first on dow tune and extended a bit on short covering .... but last 70 points were given back in double quick time ..... so forget about what channels r saying and just trade by watching dow futs ......
madhav ranade (10/17/2008 3:20:59 PM): i will just reproduce a few lines from my diwali posting ... which wl appear in the economic revolution next week ..... Our FAB FOUR are due to retire from test cricket during the course of this year and we will also see some big corporate names biting the dust by the time next samvat is over. Every bear market leaves behind some carcasses as every bull phase has new leaders. any guess which carcases u wl find in the next few weeks and months ...........
* * *
madhav ranade (10/16/2008 9:54:25 AM): good morning ! about ten days ago, i made a very fervent emotional appeal to all of you to get out of MFs ... but itseems no remption pressures hv come up on equity funds .... is it plain apathy towards our own money or that 'invincible' aura of indian growth story is still enticing many of you who care about capital ..... it is really really surprising ...... yr wealth advisors ..... read MF agents will not allow u to exit .... lest they wl lose trailing commissions which just come to them without doing anything .... kudos to indian MF investor ... and to their AVIJIGESHU tendencies .... look at indian langauges shabdakosha if u do not understand avijigeshu ..... i give up .... simply give up ......
* * *
madhav ranade (10/15/2008 9:52:33 AM): good morning ! usual pattern is playing out and we hv generally guessed the US market mood well in advance ..... generally when we close at 3.30 pm, it is still very early for dow futs to become active in the real sense ..... may be some operators are even manipulating those futures and then taking opposit posn as the volume is really really insignificant in dow futs at that hour ...... just a theory i am putting up .... i know this has happened in the past when ADRs were rather thinly traded ..... now the volumes hv increased substantially ...... as for today, 50/60 points gap down and then dancing to US futures tune there after .... usual pattern ......
madhav ranade (10/15/2008 12:05:40 PM): LT results are not good on q on q basis ..... this is first cut ..... selloff is logical ......
madhav ranade (10/15/2008 12:12:24 PM): LT ..... interst 69 crores as against 36 crores .... last 4 qtr average ..... also more than 10 % jump in expenses for similar jmp in revenue ..... this shows pressure on margins ....... more analysis wl be done by suited and booted analysts who hv no other work in any case than crunching nos ......
madhav ranade (10/15/2008 12:17:05 PM): if LT is any indicator, interest is going to hit bottomlines of all brick and mortar businesses ..... pl accept this reality ......
* * *
madhav ranade (10/14/2008 9:49:49 AM): good morning ! a monster rally in US markets ...... a part discounted in our market already ..... i expect max 4 to 5 % in our markets today ..... even that may not sustain as FIIs will press sells at higher levels and MFs also change to profit booking mode ..... keep that in mind ......
* * *
madhav ranade (10/13/2008 9:51:18 AM): good morning ! look at gravity of the situation ..... FM on TV channels even before market opening ...... giving his figures trying to convince .... to whoever wants to get convinced ..... that everything is OK ...... any way, we will open up and may build a bit on that .... some shortcovering will happen ... as expected ..... but usual zing wl be missing in the bounce ..... particularly from these extreme oversold posn ......
madhav ranade (10/13/2008 10:03:26 AM): further CRR cuts and possible repo rate cuts ..... shud be looked at as RBI's helplessness ..... inflation is still close to 12 % and still they hv to cut rates ...... the problems are grave and its clear that we r in for a lot of trouble .... over a considerale amount of time ......
madhav ranade (10/17/2008 3:20:59 PM): i will just reproduce a few lines from my diwali posting ... which wl appear in the economic revolution next week ..... Our FAB FOUR are due to retire from test cricket during the course of this year and we will also see some big corporate names biting the dust by the time next samvat is over. Every bear market leaves behind some carcasses as every bull phase has new leaders. any guess which carcases u wl find in the next few weeks and months ...........
* * *
madhav ranade (10/16/2008 9:54:25 AM): good morning ! about ten days ago, i made a very fervent emotional appeal to all of you to get out of MFs ... but itseems no remption pressures hv come up on equity funds .... is it plain apathy towards our own money or that 'invincible' aura of indian growth story is still enticing many of you who care about capital ..... it is really really surprising ...... yr wealth advisors ..... read MF agents will not allow u to exit .... lest they wl lose trailing commissions which just come to them without doing anything .... kudos to indian MF investor ... and to their AVIJIGESHU tendencies .... look at indian langauges shabdakosha if u do not understand avijigeshu ..... i give up .... simply give up ......
* * *
madhav ranade (10/15/2008 9:52:33 AM): good morning ! usual pattern is playing out and we hv generally guessed the US market mood well in advance ..... generally when we close at 3.30 pm, it is still very early for dow futs to become active in the real sense ..... may be some operators are even manipulating those futures and then taking opposit posn as the volume is really really insignificant in dow futs at that hour ...... just a theory i am putting up .... i know this has happened in the past when ADRs were rather thinly traded ..... now the volumes hv increased substantially ...... as for today, 50/60 points gap down and then dancing to US futures tune there after .... usual pattern ......
madhav ranade (10/15/2008 12:05:40 PM): LT results are not good on q on q basis ..... this is first cut ..... selloff is logical ......
madhav ranade (10/15/2008 12:12:24 PM): LT ..... interst 69 crores as against 36 crores .... last 4 qtr average ..... also more than 10 % jump in expenses for similar jmp in revenue ..... this shows pressure on margins ....... more analysis wl be done by suited and booted analysts who hv no other work in any case than crunching nos ......
madhav ranade (10/15/2008 12:17:05 PM): if LT is any indicator, interest is going to hit bottomlines of all brick and mortar businesses ..... pl accept this reality ......
* * *
madhav ranade (10/14/2008 9:49:49 AM): good morning ! a monster rally in US markets ...... a part discounted in our market already ..... i expect max 4 to 5 % in our markets today ..... even that may not sustain as FIIs will press sells at higher levels and MFs also change to profit booking mode ..... keep that in mind ......
* * *
madhav ranade (10/13/2008 9:51:18 AM): good morning ! look at gravity of the situation ..... FM on TV channels even before market opening ...... giving his figures trying to convince .... to whoever wants to get convinced ..... that everything is OK ...... any way, we will open up and may build a bit on that .... some shortcovering will happen ... as expected ..... but usual zing wl be missing in the bounce ..... particularly from these extreme oversold posn ......
madhav ranade (10/13/2008 10:03:26 AM): further CRR cuts and possible repo rate cuts ..... shud be looked at as RBI's helplessness ..... inflation is still close to 12 % and still they hv to cut rates ...... the problems are grave and its clear that we r in for a lot of trouble .... over a considerale amount of time ......
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
messenger archives 8th and 10th october
madhav ranade (10/10/2008 9:48:58 AM): good morning ! we shud be looking at circuit down opening ...... so try and buy whatever u can before market closes down ... put yr offer at yr dream prices of 2004/05 .... they may be filled in ......
madhav ranade (10/10/2008 10:08:55 AM): so circuit was saved ....... diis hv bought heavily at market price .... and absorbed all that retail wanted to sell ..... now we hv to see what happens when FII selling starts ..... i think that shud start after some time .... they wl wait to see if there is a bounce and they can exit at somewhat better price point
madhav ranade (10/10/2008 11:21:56 AM): on monday, i had written that my charts show that FMCG wl comeoff this week ..... particularly HINDLEVER ....... today 15 % down from monday morning rate ...... cheers ......
madhav ranade (10/10/2008 3:26:11 PM): even today .... nifty futs are at premium ..... i hv been consistently saying that bears r not pushing hard .... it is the bulls who hv lost heart .... and thrown in the towel ...... they hv stashed away all the money they made in 4 yrs bull run .... i dont know where ...... they hv lost the spirit to fight ......
madhav ranade (10/8/2008 10:35:21 AM): now the kedias of the world are scared to look at charts and make any predictions .... but many of them ... incl that JP morgan tech guy were not ready to call downside when dow was around 11000/11800 range for 4/5 /6 weeks ..... the fundas of US economy was telling u that this market is going to collapse and i kept warning .... on every possible forum ..... but i am a freelancer and i dont hv institutional backing ..... no regrets for that .... it enables me to speak my mind ..... no compulsion of towing corporate line ...... i only feel bad that gullible investors continue to be taken for ride ..... by these operators / brokers / MF cos ..... and now ULIP offering insurance cos ..... we r in for a major major trouble .....
madhav ranade (10/8/2008 11:16:20 AM): many of the stocks .... are available at aug / sept 2006 prices ..... and everyone is calling them 'mouthwatering' but that is on trailing twelve month EPS basis. when the future profits are uncertain ...... we need to be careful and buy only those stocks where there is clear visibility of earnings ..... for next 12/18 months ..... keep that in mind and then buy stocks ..... and dont sell yr house as udayan was suggesting ...... it is foolhardy - at any price level .... and any stock ....
madhav ranade (10/8/2008 3:13:17 PM): if u hv read my blog www.sumamurauvach.blogspot.com u wl now have a general hang of how i think and how i give my calls. generally, u wl find that the margin of safety is high and there is some logic in what i say and it is explicitly explained ..... so that u can also think and decide whether what i am saying is right or wrong ...... i never talk in thin air ...... i will appreciate if u hv any comments .....
madhav ranade (10/10/2008 10:08:55 AM): so circuit was saved ....... diis hv bought heavily at market price .... and absorbed all that retail wanted to sell ..... now we hv to see what happens when FII selling starts ..... i think that shud start after some time .... they wl wait to see if there is a bounce and they can exit at somewhat better price point
madhav ranade (10/10/2008 11:21:56 AM): on monday, i had written that my charts show that FMCG wl comeoff this week ..... particularly HINDLEVER ....... today 15 % down from monday morning rate ...... cheers ......
madhav ranade (10/10/2008 3:26:11 PM): even today .... nifty futs are at premium ..... i hv been consistently saying that bears r not pushing hard .... it is the bulls who hv lost heart .... and thrown in the towel ...... they hv stashed away all the money they made in 4 yrs bull run .... i dont know where ...... they hv lost the spirit to fight ......
* * *
madhav ranade (10/8/2008 9:52:17 AM): good morning ! i told u two days ago that 3550/3700 is very important zone ..... a decisive break wl take us 30 % lower in months to come ..... today atleast one analyst acknowledged that possibility ...... we may get into structural bear market then ..... so watch next few days carefully ..... i hv already given u hints about MF withdrawals yesterday and do think in ernest .... i dont want anyone to repent later ..... we can always reenter if the market does not collapse ......keep that in mind .....madhav ranade (10/8/2008 10:35:21 AM): now the kedias of the world are scared to look at charts and make any predictions .... but many of them ... incl that JP morgan tech guy were not ready to call downside when dow was around 11000/11800 range for 4/5 /6 weeks ..... the fundas of US economy was telling u that this market is going to collapse and i kept warning .... on every possible forum ..... but i am a freelancer and i dont hv institutional backing ..... no regrets for that .... it enables me to speak my mind ..... no compulsion of towing corporate line ...... i only feel bad that gullible investors continue to be taken for ride ..... by these operators / brokers / MF cos ..... and now ULIP offering insurance cos ..... we r in for a major major trouble .....
madhav ranade (10/8/2008 11:16:20 AM): many of the stocks .... are available at aug / sept 2006 prices ..... and everyone is calling them 'mouthwatering' but that is on trailing twelve month EPS basis. when the future profits are uncertain ...... we need to be careful and buy only those stocks where there is clear visibility of earnings ..... for next 12/18 months ..... keep that in mind and then buy stocks ..... and dont sell yr house as udayan was suggesting ...... it is foolhardy - at any price level .... and any stock ....
madhav ranade (10/8/2008 3:13:17 PM): if u hv read my blog www.sumamurauvach.blogspot.com u wl now have a general hang of how i think and how i give my calls. generally, u wl find that the margin of safety is high and there is some logic in what i say and it is explicitly explained ..... so that u can also think and decide whether what i am saying is right or wrong ...... i never talk in thin air ...... i will appreciate if u hv any comments .....
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
archives of yahoo messenger 1st / 7th oct 2008
madhav ranade (10/7/2008 9:52:37 AM): good morning ! i had mentioned yesterday that i see 3550/3700 as a major support zone ...... and it will be not so easy to break that ..... so, we hv some announcements like p notes / crr and we wl se a bounce today ...... i had also mentioned that get into some stocks where u see value .... i hope u hv bought something ..... there is no point in simply sitting on sidelines ......
madhav ranade (10/7/2008 1:07:38 PM): looks like TATACHEM is taking a double knock ..... all fertiliser stocks hv collapsed and collapse of tata stocks are reflecting on tatachem treasury holding value also ..... but still at this price it looks extremely attractive ............ 175 / 190 looks a good support zone ..... u can buy the stock from short as well as medium term perspective .....
madhav ranade (10/7/2008 1:50:15 PM): the way the markets are falling all over the world ..... it looks like that we were better off without this FII menace ..... atleast we knew our jokers and we knew rules of the game ...... may be that is what bhave meant when he said we need to restructure the whole FII regime ...... the picture worldwide is looking extremely grim ...... and MF fund investors shud seriously start thinking taking money out of equity schemes and shift to debt ..... this is a must to protect yr gains .... atleast pull out 40/50 % of the amount ..... it is better to be safe than sorry .............. even if u hv no profits in MFs, even capital preservation is equally important ...... so pull out even if u r making losses ...... cances yr ECS mandates for SIPs also ...... there is no point throwing good money behind bad money ...... our economy may be in good shape but without FII money what valuations yr stocks can get ............... think like that ...... if FIIs pull out another 5 billion USD, we wl go down by 25/30 % .... even from these levels ..... and then all yr dreams built on prospects of super equity gains will evaporate in thin air ......i am not painting a grim scenario for the sake of it but just sharing my humble thoughts .... which i know are 180 degree opposit to fund managers who just dont want u to sell ....... when there is delivery based selling .... banning shorts also does not work ..... look at US / UK ...... for me 3550 is an important level ... and may be it wl be protected on closing basis ..... but how long ..... and i am making u think as i know that such important decisions can not be taken on spur of the moment ..... so think, think hard and come to a conclusion before the weak is out ...... god bless you .......
madhav ranade (10/7/2008 2:32:39 PM): on all parameters a certain stock may look good ...... but there has to be a buyer ..... look at it like this a new painter with skills 10 times better than MF hussein starts painting ..... he expects to fetch a better price than hussein since his paintings are inherently better ...... and the king of that state has agreed to buy whatever he paints at some good value ..... but to his misfortune, for next two years there is draught in the state and the king has no money to buy the paintings ..... then what happens ..... an he realise what is due to him ..... and how does he survive in the intervening period ..... fiis paid astronomical prices for yr stocks .... but now it is a question of their survival ..... and they r dumping at throw away price ...... WHO CAN BUY now .... and absorb the qty that they r dumping ...... so better exit and move to debt funds or to bank FDs and wait patiently ......
madhav ranade (10/6/2008 9:39:43 AM): good morning ! now we hv to look at 3550/3700 which is very very important support zone ..... i dont think we r going to break that zone that easily ...... but god forbid, if that happens ...... we are opening ourselves to 1000 nifty points downside risk in the months to come ...... i know - nobody likes to hear this ..... but it is entirely possible ....... keep that in mind .... INSPITE OF WHAT WE LIKE TO HEAR, WE MUST LEARN TO FACTOR IN THE POSSIBILE DANGERS ...... OFCOURSE, ALL THIS IS SUBJECT TO 3550 BEING BROKEN ..... WHICH IS STILL AWAY .....
madhav ranade (10/6/2008 1:11:17 PM): as i said in the morning, i dont expect that 3550/3700 zone wl be broken so easily ...... but that does not mean this is a call to go long ...... all the way ..... some good stocks hv been battered out of shape ..... hv a look at those stocks and u may enter those and play for a bit of a bounce ..... but make sure u enter in extreme low p/e .... and good stocks ..... p/es btween 7 and 10 preferred ....... with a steady / good performance
madhav ranade (10/6/2008 1:27:33 PM): i read over the weekend that obama's future is linked to crude prices ... and both china and saudi ..... big investors in US gilts ...... want republican to win ..... hence crude wl remain subdued till 4th nov ... election day ..... china is supressing crude demand and saudi is unofficially pumping much more than what they r allowed by OPEC ...... winter wl start after 4th nov and no one wl be interested in suppressing crude ..... so crude wl zoom again .......
madhav ranade (10/3/2008 9:46:39 AM): good morning ! nuclear deal clearance in the senate is a non event. it is like clearing a bill in rajyasabha after already being cleared in loksabha. so dont get swayed by this newsbit which is flashing on frontpages of all newspapers. as regard to bailout package, the developments arereally intriguing. all newswires reports are suggesting that the bill is likely to be passed in congress. inspite of that dow sold off yesterday in abig way ..... may be wallstreet does not like a tweaked version ..... sgx is not giving any clue today ..... i feel we shud open about 40/50 points negative and drift to about 100 nifty points during day .... dpending on how dow futs behave .......
madhav ranade (10/3/2008 10:45:05 AM): US public mood is so bad as regards to bailout package is concerned that voters are calling lawmakers and stating that after spending 700 billion this year, they r sure that next year package will be a trillion - 1000 billion dollars .... that effectively sums up and explains why dow tanked yesterday ......
madhav ranade (10/3/2008 12:56:23 PM): now people r wondering whether 3717 bottom wl hold ...... i had said that day itself that people wasting time is predicting short term / midterm bottoms ...... unnecessary blah blah on channels ... any way they hv nothing else to say .....
madhav ranade (10/1/2008 9:49:43 AM): good morning ! yesterdays pullback was on the back of dow futs and 'gentle' persuation of govt owned DIIs by delhi ..... then the result is obvious ..... it is always easy to buy with someone eles money ..... isnt it ?????? the bailout bill is being tabled in senate today evening at 7.30 us time ...... some rate cuts and few other things like increased deposit limit is being added ..... these democrats dislike ..... moreover some congressmaen are annoyed that senate is taking lead and trying to force congress's hand .....it is like rajyasabha forcing losabha ..... there r some more distubing developments .... i wl write a few mins later .......
madhav ranade (10/1/2008 10:04:12 AM): US problems ...... what is more damaging some change in accounting regulations sought by some congressmen .... they want SEC to tweak the rules so that banks dont hv to take mark to market losses ..... this is like the bonds treated by our banks which r HTM - held till maturity - catagory ..... holding US treasury bills like HTM is one thing and taking same stand on mortgage based securities is entirely another kettle of fish ..... just imagine some of these can fetch u not even 20 cents to a dollar now ...... ex goldman sachs CEO and current treasury secretary paulsen wl be rubbing his hands in glee ..... if this is passedby sec .... change in accounting .... then he can buy all the bad debts at face value and all wallstreet firms and all banks wl make windfall gains at the cost of tax payers ...... moreover this wl be a very damaging precedent for the world economies ..... SEC is reluctant but finally u never know what kind of pressures the govt and the lawmakers can put on these so called 'independent' regulators ...... watch out .......
madhav ranade (10/1/2008 11:01:22 AM): govt intervention in RIL / RNRL case ...... this i interpret as negative to both the parties ...... rnrl interests are clearly undermined and as usual market wl take note when some white sinned brokerage wl say that ..... as far as RIL is concerned, it takes away complete pricing power from the company ...... this has to be a major negative factor .... particularly with amarsingh hand dominant in the current govt set-up ...... pl take yr own call on both the stocks ......
madhav ranade (10/7/2008 9:52:37 AM): good morning ! i had mentioned yesterday that i see 3550/3700 as a major support zone ...... and it will be not so easy to break that ..... so, we hv some announcements like p notes / crr and we wl se a bounce today ...... i had also mentioned that get into some stocks where u see value .... i hope u hv bought something ..... there is no point in simply sitting on sidelines ......
madhav ranade (10/7/2008 1:07:38 PM): looks like TATACHEM is taking a double knock ..... all fertiliser stocks hv collapsed and collapse of tata stocks are reflecting on tatachem treasury holding value also ..... but still at this price it looks extremely attractive ............ 175 / 190 looks a good support zone ..... u can buy the stock from short as well as medium term perspective .....
madhav ranade (10/7/2008 1:50:15 PM): the way the markets are falling all over the world ..... it looks like that we were better off without this FII menace ..... atleast we knew our jokers and we knew rules of the game ...... may be that is what bhave meant when he said we need to restructure the whole FII regime ...... the picture worldwide is looking extremely grim ...... and MF fund investors shud seriously start thinking taking money out of equity schemes and shift to debt ..... this is a must to protect yr gains .... atleast pull out 40/50 % of the amount ..... it is better to be safe than sorry .............. even if u hv no profits in MFs, even capital preservation is equally important ...... so pull out even if u r making losses ...... cances yr ECS mandates for SIPs also ...... there is no point throwing good money behind bad money ...... our economy may be in good shape but without FII money what valuations yr stocks can get ............... think like that ...... if FIIs pull out another 5 billion USD, we wl go down by 25/30 % .... even from these levels ..... and then all yr dreams built on prospects of super equity gains will evaporate in thin air ......i am not painting a grim scenario for the sake of it but just sharing my humble thoughts .... which i know are 180 degree opposit to fund managers who just dont want u to sell ....... when there is delivery based selling .... banning shorts also does not work ..... look at US / UK ...... for me 3550 is an important level ... and may be it wl be protected on closing basis ..... but how long ..... and i am making u think as i know that such important decisions can not be taken on spur of the moment ..... so think, think hard and come to a conclusion before the weak is out ...... god bless you .......
madhav ranade (10/7/2008 2:32:39 PM): on all parameters a certain stock may look good ...... but there has to be a buyer ..... look at it like this a new painter with skills 10 times better than MF hussein starts painting ..... he expects to fetch a better price than hussein since his paintings are inherently better ...... and the king of that state has agreed to buy whatever he paints at some good value ..... but to his misfortune, for next two years there is draught in the state and the king has no money to buy the paintings ..... then what happens ..... an he realise what is due to him ..... and how does he survive in the intervening period ..... fiis paid astronomical prices for yr stocks .... but now it is a question of their survival ..... and they r dumping at throw away price ...... WHO CAN BUY now .... and absorb the qty that they r dumping ...... so better exit and move to debt funds or to bank FDs and wait patiently ......
madhav ranade (10/6/2008 9:39:43 AM): good morning ! now we hv to look at 3550/3700 which is very very important support zone ..... i dont think we r going to break that zone that easily ...... but god forbid, if that happens ...... we are opening ourselves to 1000 nifty points downside risk in the months to come ...... i know - nobody likes to hear this ..... but it is entirely possible ....... keep that in mind .... INSPITE OF WHAT WE LIKE TO HEAR, WE MUST LEARN TO FACTOR IN THE POSSIBILE DANGERS ...... OFCOURSE, ALL THIS IS SUBJECT TO 3550 BEING BROKEN ..... WHICH IS STILL AWAY .....
madhav ranade (10/6/2008 1:11:17 PM): as i said in the morning, i dont expect that 3550/3700 zone wl be broken so easily ...... but that does not mean this is a call to go long ...... all the way ..... some good stocks hv been battered out of shape ..... hv a look at those stocks and u may enter those and play for a bit of a bounce ..... but make sure u enter in extreme low p/e .... and good stocks ..... p/es btween 7 and 10 preferred ....... with a steady / good performance
madhav ranade (10/6/2008 1:27:33 PM): i read over the weekend that obama's future is linked to crude prices ... and both china and saudi ..... big investors in US gilts ...... want republican to win ..... hence crude wl remain subdued till 4th nov ... election day ..... china is supressing crude demand and saudi is unofficially pumping much more than what they r allowed by OPEC ...... winter wl start after 4th nov and no one wl be interested in suppressing crude ..... so crude wl zoom again .......
madhav ranade (10/3/2008 9:46:39 AM): good morning ! nuclear deal clearance in the senate is a non event. it is like clearing a bill in rajyasabha after already being cleared in loksabha. so dont get swayed by this newsbit which is flashing on frontpages of all newspapers. as regard to bailout package, the developments arereally intriguing. all newswires reports are suggesting that the bill is likely to be passed in congress. inspite of that dow sold off yesterday in abig way ..... may be wallstreet does not like a tweaked version ..... sgx is not giving any clue today ..... i feel we shud open about 40/50 points negative and drift to about 100 nifty points during day .... dpending on how dow futs behave .......
madhav ranade (10/3/2008 10:45:05 AM): US public mood is so bad as regards to bailout package is concerned that voters are calling lawmakers and stating that after spending 700 billion this year, they r sure that next year package will be a trillion - 1000 billion dollars .... that effectively sums up and explains why dow tanked yesterday ......
madhav ranade (10/3/2008 12:56:23 PM): now people r wondering whether 3717 bottom wl hold ...... i had said that day itself that people wasting time is predicting short term / midterm bottoms ...... unnecessary blah blah on channels ... any way they hv nothing else to say .....
madhav ranade (10/1/2008 9:49:43 AM): good morning ! yesterdays pullback was on the back of dow futs and 'gentle' persuation of govt owned DIIs by delhi ..... then the result is obvious ..... it is always easy to buy with someone eles money ..... isnt it ?????? the bailout bill is being tabled in senate today evening at 7.30 us time ...... some rate cuts and few other things like increased deposit limit is being added ..... these democrats dislike ..... moreover some congressmaen are annoyed that senate is taking lead and trying to force congress's hand .....it is like rajyasabha forcing losabha ..... there r some more distubing developments .... i wl write a few mins later .......
madhav ranade (10/1/2008 10:04:12 AM): US problems ...... what is more damaging some change in accounting regulations sought by some congressmen .... they want SEC to tweak the rules so that banks dont hv to take mark to market losses ..... this is like the bonds treated by our banks which r HTM - held till maturity - catagory ..... holding US treasury bills like HTM is one thing and taking same stand on mortgage based securities is entirely another kettle of fish ..... just imagine some of these can fetch u not even 20 cents to a dollar now ...... ex goldman sachs CEO and current treasury secretary paulsen wl be rubbing his hands in glee ..... if this is passedby sec .... change in accounting .... then he can buy all the bad debts at face value and all wallstreet firms and all banks wl make windfall gains at the cost of tax payers ...... moreover this wl be a very damaging precedent for the world economies ..... SEC is reluctant but finally u never know what kind of pressures the govt and the lawmakers can put on these so called 'independent' regulators ...... watch out .......
madhav ranade (10/1/2008 11:01:22 AM): govt intervention in RIL / RNRL case ...... this i interpret as negative to both the parties ...... rnrl interests are clearly undermined and as usual market wl take note when some white sinned brokerage wl say that ..... as far as RIL is concerned, it takes away complete pricing power from the company ...... this has to be a major negative factor .... particularly with amarsingh hand dominant in the current govt set-up ...... pl take yr own call on both the stocks ......
yahoo messenger archives - 19th / 30th sept 2008
archives of important messages posted from 19th / 30th september 2008
madhav ranade (9/30/2008 9:54:19 AM): good morning ! i expect a 3/max 4 % lower opening .... anything more will be overreaction .... shorts are banned virtually all over asia and that is why the fall shud be muted ..... buy value stocks like siemens / lt / bharti / mrpl / tatachem etc at lows or near lows ..... dont chase momentum ...... best of luck ......
madhav ranade (9/30/2008 12:24:58 PM): did anyone hear mecklai jamal about rupee movement prediction ..... he had guts to say that i dont know and anyone who is trying to predict is bluffing ..... we r in a similar flux in stockmarket as well .... but except shankar sharma and damni ... all are paying only lip service by saying what masses like to hear ..... these r turncoats and we shud keep away from them .... weathercock is more stable than these guys ........
madhav ranade (9/30/2008 3:23:01 PM): i am just coming online ..... i presume the market is moving up in the hope of 0.5 % rate cut ...... the moot point is how it wl help our market ...... in the past, the rate cut means the money wl flow out of US ..... looking for better bargains .... now the situation is that all FIIs are struggling to make two ends meet ..... they do not hv any surplus which wl flow to EMs ..... any way, market is rejoicing the possibility .... we wl get ready with our view and buy puts ..... if there is no rate cut, themarkets may tank tomorrow, when we wl reap the harvest ..... if there is a rate cut, the white skin people wl tell the bulls, sorry we hv no money to put in india .... may be they wl tell 2 days later .... we wl hv to wait that long ....... what we r risking is max 20/30 rs ....
madhav ranade (9/30/2008 4:10:02 PM): US lawmakers ..... equivalent to our parliament / assembly members ..... hv shown that they listen to the voters voice ..... that is why they refused to sanction the bailout package at taxpayers expense ... when we wl hv such a day .... when we wl hv such sensitive and sensible lawmakers ..... that day will be a soniyacha diwas ... a golden day in our polity ......
madhav ranade (9/26/2008 9:51:09 AM): good morning ! sgx is indicating negative opening but i feel we r going to hv moderately positive opening as bulls wud like to play on inflation news ...... they wl wait for any further developments on US front about the bailout package .... later in the day ....
madhav ranade (9/29/2008 9:51:53 AM): good morning ! the contours of bailout package hv changed substantially ...... this has not enthused the asian markets at all ..... they hv been neutral with slightly negative bias ...... we also may start the same way and drift lower ......
madhav ranade (9/29/2008 9:56:03 AM): after wasington mutual, now the focus is on wachovia ... and citi is named as a possible suitor ....... which itself is leveraged 40 plus times .... so on the brink .....
madhav ranade (9/26/2008 10:15:16 AM): i had expected a much better showing from bulls but what we r seeing is a reaction in line with dow futures .... again it becomes clear who is calling the shots .....
madhav ranade (9/26/2008 2:51:05 PM): today, i am getting a feeling that bears r not pressing ..... aware that there may be a bailout package announcement over the weekend ...... but market is till drifting as bulls r not willing to take charge ...... they made tonnes and tonnes of money in last 4 yrs ..... so i dont think they r lacking in resources ..... but may be the spirit is not willing ....
madhav ranade (9/25/2008 9:50:58 AM): good morning ! as expected, it is turning out to be an uneventful week .... today we may hv some additional volatility induced by rxpiry considerations .... but thtas about all ....
madhav ranade (9/25/2008 3:21:46 PM): market does not seem to hv any strength or momentum ..... in table tennis terms ......u r getting a absolute dead ball ... with no spin on it .... it becomes very difficult to hit that ball although it may look very easy ...... it just hangs in the air ......
madhav ranade (9/24/2008 10:26:36 AM): very hard fought debate is going on hawkish US lawmakers from both parties and BUSH administration about the bailout package ..... and the contours of the package are changing every hour ..... after buffet and mitsubishi hv taken stake in goldman and morgan respectively, there are people in US who r doubting whether the bailout package is really reqd ....... we hv to wait and watch what finally comes out on friday ...... as usual it wl hv huge ramifications ..... and amplified one ..... on all asian markets including india .....
madhav ranade (9/24/2008 9:49:00 AM): good morning ! warren buffet is taking stake in goldman and that has set dow futs on fire ...... that is why asian markets are showing a moderate bounce ..... this will be reflected on our markets as well..... we will dance to US tunes .... even to future tunes ......
madhav ranade (9/24/2008 10:21:28 AM): i dont like to comment on individuals .... but this fellow PN VIJAY ..... i dont know how many times in last 7/8 months he has said that indian market is over the 'humps' and we r still making lowere lows and lower highs ...... i dont know why such speakers are invited who cant even change the phrases over a period of time ...... simply ridiculous .......
madhav ranade (9/23/2008 9:48:15 AM): good morning ! so, euphoria is over ..... it seems like that ..... on friday when i was asking to cut naked longs, there were many - who were overly bullish - sort of chuckling in their cheeks ...... but as i said time and again - i prefer to err on the side of caution because .... CAPITAL NEEDS TO BE RESPECTED AND PRESERVED infact i had suggested to buy 4100 puts ... and it wud give u decent returns today ....
madhav ranade (9/22/2008 9:52:53 AM): good morning ! a moderately positive opening ..... more because of inertia than anything else ..... some profit taking expected ...... generally this week will be an uneventful week from now on unless some dramatic development happens in US .....madhav ranade (9/22/2008 9:56:15 AM): goldman and morgan stanley hv asked for change in status from IBANK to bank holding cos and the requst is granted ..... that means now there is no large IBANK on wall street .... now both goldman and morgan wl follow normal banking regulations ... they wl now come under pirview of FED .... earlier they were under SEC
madhav ranade (9/22/2008 3:20:20 PM): BAILOUT package ..... reverse auction likely to be used ..... packets of 10 billion dollar will be auctioned at a time ...... average realisation likely to be in the range of 50 to 65 cents out of a dollar ...... so u can imagine the amount of losses that wl be taken on books ... these wl be one time losses .... it is expected that some balancesheets wl get completely wiped out if they wl book these losses .... so those entities may prefer to continue as it is ..... that is also a possibility ...... all above is still speculative since no one knows finally what wl be cleared by congress ......
madhav ranade (9/19/2008 9:53:45 AM): good morning ! will be infact a great morning .... i wl not be surprised to see even 4325/4340 levels on nifty spot ..... sometime during the day .... remember we r an immature market and overdo things both ways ..... i will still hold back any long commitments till we see a definite announcement by US govt ..... i dont mind missing 50/100 points on nifty because if nothing concrete happens we can might as well fall like a stone .......
madhav ranade (9/19/2008 10:01:51 AM): i am disappointed with the opening to say the least ..... inspite of projection of strength in the market ... from everyone who came on tv channels today .... the market is subdued ... and that is intriguing ...... i think FIIs wl take opportunity to press fresh shorts since market is not showing strength as expected ... let us wait and watch
madhav ranade (9/19/2008 10:39:41 AM): short sales banned in US and UK ( only financial stocks ) ..... this means many hedge funds will hv to be wound up ... in short now the govt wants ' long only ' funds to operate which is entirely absurd ..... RTC kind of entity will mean that all profits have been privatised and all losses ... which r happening now .... wl be socialised ...... USA is going the older USSR way ...... isnt it ????? i think worst than that ....in USSR the profits were not privatised ....... may be profits were never made ....... any comments ???
madhav ranade (9/19/2008 3:13:38 PM): rallies u r seeing in US and UK market is due to technical reasons like banning of short sell etc ...... if short sells is banned in our market, we wud hv crossed 4700/4800 by now ..... we know that these technical factors work for a few days and if the fundamentals dont improve during that time .... we r back to square one ..... keep that in mind ......
madhav ranade (9/19/2008 3:18:24 PM): before banning shorts in india, govt will hv to accept that our FIs are at risk of default .... which they hv ben denying all thru ... and it is a fact as well ... so i see no chance that shots will be banned in india ..... DONT LIVE IN THAT WONDERLAND .....
Friday, September 19, 2008
archives of 12th / 17th / 18th sept yahoo messenger posting
18th september 2008
madhav ranade (9/18/2008 9:55:49 AM): good morning ! what shud i say ? last mondays rally was not at all convincing for me ..... and tuesdays pullback even less ..... so i hv been recommending to go short or atleast cut longs at every stage ...... i hv been watching charts for all indices every day and weakness was palpable ..... but everyone was made to believe the other way ..... so now we pay the price .....
madhav ranade (9/18/2008 9:57:16 AM): i hv been telling u that trust only shankar sharma and ramesh damani ...... everyone else is a hoax ......
madhav ranade (9/18/2008 10:12:28 AM): just forget terms like short term / mid term bottom etc ...... that is only for babbling hours on when u hv nothing else to say ...... the problems in global financial markets are currently un-fathomable ..... that is reality ....
madhav ranade (9/18/2008 12:47:00 PM): signing out now .... shud be back by 3 pm ......
17th september 2008
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 9:04:43 AM): good morning ! i am back ..... i had told u on fiday morning that lehman debacle is waiting to happen and u wl see lot of blood on screen on in next one or two days ...... it did happen that way ..... PL NOTE THAT STEROIDS DONT WORK FOR MORE THAN COUPLE OF DAYS ...... AIG is bailed out ..... and this one has not worked even 4 hrs ..... dow futures shot up and they are already near negitive zone as i am typing this message ..... yesterdays recovery was used by smart people to exit stuck longs ... but some hv built longs as depicted by nifty fut premium ..... no one can help these greedy souls ..... i will need some time to get grip on the market again as lots has happened in last 2 days when i was away and i must take stock ..... mrkets shud open in red ... as it looks now ..... take care
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:00:39 AM): as expected we hv opened in the red ..... marginally though ..... AIG is virtually nationalised .... which can not be a GOOD NEWS to rejoice .... keep that in mind ..... today US markets will react vigorously ..... and i dont like to be trapped on the wrong side .....
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:03:47 AM): satyam / tatachem / neyveli / suzlon can be looked at from med term perspective ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:05:35 AM): yesterday MRPL was a great buy around 52/53 levels ..... keep watching that stock closer to 50/52 ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:07:23 AM): icici has gap around 555 on weekly charts ..... rcap has a gap around 999 ...... keep watching .......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:14:50 AM): i feel that neyveli at this level is a much better buy than NTPC ...... pl switch if u trust me ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:22:46 AM): CNBC anchors ..... or shud we say child anchors ..... hv a very nasty habit of asking 'leading ' questions ..... if the person who is giving an interview feels the bottom is in place .... he will say so ..... anchors dont hv to prod him to say so ..... there are only a handful of people who wl hv a knack to say what they want to say .... inspite of consistent prodding ...... other will fall into the traps of 'leading' questions .......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:37:44 AM): many tech analysts are still refusing to accept the reality and still living in the dreams they had last monday morning ..... they hv put on dark goggles meant for bright sun .... and then driving in the night ......
madhav ranade: market cap of AIG .. at yesterdays closing was around 10 billion dollars .....
madhav ranade: wl any govt wl give 8 times market cap as loan ...... unless it was a desperate situation ... to avert financial disaster which wud hv happened if AIG were to belly-up ..... this is time to introspect and not to rejoice ..... how badly the american economy was handled for last several years ..... also u may look at it as bane of capitalism .......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 1:32:56 PM): as per CNBC child anchors perspective ...... a 3 hours rally is good enough for "short term bottom to be in place " ............ cheers to them and to their childish wisdom ................ madhav ranade (9/17/2008 1:36:45 PM): my charts are saying that IFCI has slipped below 40 ...... as per some gurus, it is a 'goldmine' .... i think it is a defunct or abandoned gold mine ...... all the gold was taken out by operators when it hit 120 9/10 months ago ..... now they shud convert it into a tourist spot ......madhav ranade (9/17/2008 1:39:59 PM): when AIG trades at around 10 billion dollar market cap ....... how much wl somebody pay for junk like IFCI ???????? and that to whyyyyyyyyyyy ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:17:27 PM): FTSE recovery ...... HBOS ... a large UK lender was nearly 42 % down .... it has recovered to just 2 % down now ..... hence FTSE has recoved but royal bank of scotland is still struggling .......madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:21:41 PM): HBOS is halifax bank of scotland ..... it is a large insurer and financier ..... it was trading at 45 % discount a about half an hour ago ...... has recovered since then ..........
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:30:33 PM): HBOS holds 20 % of national savings in UK ...... but it was going at less than 5 billion pounds market cap about 45 mins ago .... this shows the enormity of credit problemmm.... actually there is no end in sight ..... as all these financial institutions are so interlinked that u save one but another gets ready to bust in 48 hrs ...... i dont know whether even the fed understands how the things are going to unfold in next few weeks an months ...... it is like when the baby is crying .... without knowing what is the problem - first thing u do is feed him ..... fed did that 6 months ago by throwing money in the system and lowering interest rates ..... but now the malice has gone far beyond and amputation may be only way out ...... but the problem is ampute what ????????????
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:40:27 PM): today trading going on all major exchanges is simply like having a roller coaster ride with 2 or 3 loops ..... at the end u come out completely exhausted and groggy but u enjoy immensely when it is going on ...... i am infront of my terminal .... browsing several several websites for possible clues .... and believe me there has been not a dull moment ....... simply invigotating to say the least ....... cheeeeeeeeers .......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:46:10 PM): more than 75 lac shares traded on icici counter in last 45 mins ...... price range from 530 to 575 ....... some heady buying has happened .......madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:48:06 PM): icici has left 525 gap unfilled ...... so it has left chance for one more downswing .........
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:52:14 PM): US fed and SEC has already started looking for a suitor for washington mutual ...... yhat seems to be next in line after AIG ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 3:25:49 PM): if u hv any holding in IFCI, pl sell and buy half qty of IDFC ...... it is a far better switch ....... it wl improve quality of your portfolio from junk to 'investment grade' .........
12th september 2008
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 9:53:57 AM): good morning ! a slightly positive opening ..... but inflation nos are definitely not entirely benign and these wl play on the market as well as interest sensitives after initial 15/20 mins ..... keep watching ......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 10:08:12 AM): buy some silver .... if u can .... there is a nearly 15 % difference in silver casl international and silver spot in india ...... if u wl get 2/3 kgs .... for yrself i mean .... u wl get nearly 2000 per kg now .....
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 10:46:45 AM): i am just reproducing what i wrote about tech stockson 5th sept .... that is last week ..... madhav ranade (9/5/2008 10:14:20 AM): tech stocks ...... nasdaq is falling everyday ..... and most tech cos hv hedged full quarters earning at 41 rs a dollar ...... why r we rejoicing ...... i see a 7 to 10 % downside for the sector unless nifty is going to move up 8/10 % in next 2/3 weeks .......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 10:51:35 AM): reliance - 1960/65 gap on hourly charts filled .... i had said that yesterday ..... cheers ...............
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 10:52:56 AM): nifty spot ..... we r within striking distance of 4228 ..... cheers ...... i hope now some of u wl look at what i write seriously ......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 11:21:11 AM): there is a chance that lehman may unwind their entire india portfolio in coming 2/3 days. they hv been unwinding over last 2 weeks but that is generally counterparty trades ... so it wl not hv any impact on market or FII figures. now they hv come to a stage where they wl hv to unwind - one shot - like what bear sterns did in march ...... so beware ..... i am told that they hold reliance , all adag stocks , nbventures, anantraj, sujana .... there could be some more names ..... we must keep in mind what happened to orchid ... may be evn 25 % of that damage takes place to smaller stocks .... it could be substantial ..... i think we wl hit 4180 ... sooner or later ..... cheers ..... remember better informed is better warned .... and take care ........
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 12:17:33 PM): nifty spot ...... europe likely to open strong ... so buy nifty between 4260/70 spot and sell around 4300 ... sl 4250 ........
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:06:46 PM): i am back. europe is positive as expected ..... IIP data is not bad .... but market is still sagging ..... it did not sustain above 4300 which was acid test for me .... so we r going down ... and again targets of 4228 and 4176 wl come in play ..... capital goods stocks hv given up all the gains made post IIP nos and let us see how they close ...
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:11:38 PM): it seems BOA and barclays are looking at lehman .... BOA bailed out a troubled morgage co - countrywide finance corpn - in february and then that co went bankrupt giving a major blow to BOA shareholders ..... i am not really very sure whether they wud like to risk shareholder money second time .... barclays bank is a london based bank and they will definitely be interested in complete buyout ... not only a stake .... let us see how the situation developes ... but it will hv some resolution by monday latest as lehman is on the brink ......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:15:40 PM): falling GRMs are really taking toll of RIL and RPL ..... the complete applecart has capsized as GRMs hv moved down drastically to single digits from midteens .... rpl will be a bigger loser and it depends 100 % on refinery operations while RIL has petchem / E&P business to fall back ..... we will rework figures next week ......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:23:11 PM): there is nearly 25 % wealth erosion for sterlite shareholders .... even malco has lost 25 % from peak ..... who said that restructuring is always beneficial for shareholders ! ! ! ! ! madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:25:22 PM): reliance - on daily charts there is a gap at 1785/92 ... looks like we r marching to fill that gap ... and then just imagine what happens to nifty ... and all eliot wave theories showing 4750 as targets .....
madhav ranade (9/18/2008 9:55:49 AM): good morning ! what shud i say ? last mondays rally was not at all convincing for me ..... and tuesdays pullback even less ..... so i hv been recommending to go short or atleast cut longs at every stage ...... i hv been watching charts for all indices every day and weakness was palpable ..... but everyone was made to believe the other way ..... so now we pay the price .....
madhav ranade (9/18/2008 9:57:16 AM): i hv been telling u that trust only shankar sharma and ramesh damani ...... everyone else is a hoax ......
madhav ranade (9/18/2008 10:12:28 AM): just forget terms like short term / mid term bottom etc ...... that is only for babbling hours on when u hv nothing else to say ...... the problems in global financial markets are currently un-fathomable ..... that is reality ....
madhav ranade (9/18/2008 12:47:00 PM): signing out now .... shud be back by 3 pm ......
17th september 2008
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 9:04:43 AM): good morning ! i am back ..... i had told u on fiday morning that lehman debacle is waiting to happen and u wl see lot of blood on screen on in next one or two days ...... it did happen that way ..... PL NOTE THAT STEROIDS DONT WORK FOR MORE THAN COUPLE OF DAYS ...... AIG is bailed out ..... and this one has not worked even 4 hrs ..... dow futures shot up and they are already near negitive zone as i am typing this message ..... yesterdays recovery was used by smart people to exit stuck longs ... but some hv built longs as depicted by nifty fut premium ..... no one can help these greedy souls ..... i will need some time to get grip on the market again as lots has happened in last 2 days when i was away and i must take stock ..... mrkets shud open in red ... as it looks now ..... take care
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:00:39 AM): as expected we hv opened in the red ..... marginally though ..... AIG is virtually nationalised .... which can not be a GOOD NEWS to rejoice .... keep that in mind ..... today US markets will react vigorously ..... and i dont like to be trapped on the wrong side .....
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:03:47 AM): satyam / tatachem / neyveli / suzlon can be looked at from med term perspective ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:05:35 AM): yesterday MRPL was a great buy around 52/53 levels ..... keep watching that stock closer to 50/52 ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:07:23 AM): icici has gap around 555 on weekly charts ..... rcap has a gap around 999 ...... keep watching .......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:14:50 AM): i feel that neyveli at this level is a much better buy than NTPC ...... pl switch if u trust me ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:22:46 AM): CNBC anchors ..... or shud we say child anchors ..... hv a very nasty habit of asking 'leading ' questions ..... if the person who is giving an interview feels the bottom is in place .... he will say so ..... anchors dont hv to prod him to say so ..... there are only a handful of people who wl hv a knack to say what they want to say .... inspite of consistent prodding ...... other will fall into the traps of 'leading' questions .......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:37:44 AM): many tech analysts are still refusing to accept the reality and still living in the dreams they had last monday morning ..... they hv put on dark goggles meant for bright sun .... and then driving in the night ......
madhav ranade: market cap of AIG .. at yesterdays closing was around 10 billion dollars .....
madhav ranade: wl any govt wl give 8 times market cap as loan ...... unless it was a desperate situation ... to avert financial disaster which wud hv happened if AIG were to belly-up ..... this is time to introspect and not to rejoice ..... how badly the american economy was handled for last several years ..... also u may look at it as bane of capitalism .......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 1:32:56 PM): as per CNBC child anchors perspective ...... a 3 hours rally is good enough for "short term bottom to be in place " ............ cheers to them and to their childish wisdom ................ madhav ranade (9/17/2008 1:36:45 PM): my charts are saying that IFCI has slipped below 40 ...... as per some gurus, it is a 'goldmine' .... i think it is a defunct or abandoned gold mine ...... all the gold was taken out by operators when it hit 120 9/10 months ago ..... now they shud convert it into a tourist spot ......madhav ranade (9/17/2008 1:39:59 PM): when AIG trades at around 10 billion dollar market cap ....... how much wl somebody pay for junk like IFCI ???????? and that to whyyyyyyyyyyy ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:17:27 PM): FTSE recovery ...... HBOS ... a large UK lender was nearly 42 % down .... it has recovered to just 2 % down now ..... hence FTSE has recoved but royal bank of scotland is still struggling .......madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:21:41 PM): HBOS is halifax bank of scotland ..... it is a large insurer and financier ..... it was trading at 45 % discount a about half an hour ago ...... has recovered since then ..........
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:30:33 PM): HBOS holds 20 % of national savings in UK ...... but it was going at less than 5 billion pounds market cap about 45 mins ago .... this shows the enormity of credit problemmm.... actually there is no end in sight ..... as all these financial institutions are so interlinked that u save one but another gets ready to bust in 48 hrs ...... i dont know whether even the fed understands how the things are going to unfold in next few weeks an months ...... it is like when the baby is crying .... without knowing what is the problem - first thing u do is feed him ..... fed did that 6 months ago by throwing money in the system and lowering interest rates ..... but now the malice has gone far beyond and amputation may be only way out ...... but the problem is ampute what ????????????
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:40:27 PM): today trading going on all major exchanges is simply like having a roller coaster ride with 2 or 3 loops ..... at the end u come out completely exhausted and groggy but u enjoy immensely when it is going on ...... i am infront of my terminal .... browsing several several websites for possible clues .... and believe me there has been not a dull moment ....... simply invigotating to say the least ....... cheeeeeeeeers .......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:46:10 PM): more than 75 lac shares traded on icici counter in last 45 mins ...... price range from 530 to 575 ....... some heady buying has happened .......madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:48:06 PM): icici has left 525 gap unfilled ...... so it has left chance for one more downswing .........
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:52:14 PM): US fed and SEC has already started looking for a suitor for washington mutual ...... yhat seems to be next in line after AIG ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 3:25:49 PM): if u hv any holding in IFCI, pl sell and buy half qty of IDFC ...... it is a far better switch ....... it wl improve quality of your portfolio from junk to 'investment grade' .........
12th september 2008
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 9:53:57 AM): good morning ! a slightly positive opening ..... but inflation nos are definitely not entirely benign and these wl play on the market as well as interest sensitives after initial 15/20 mins ..... keep watching ......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 10:08:12 AM): buy some silver .... if u can .... there is a nearly 15 % difference in silver casl international and silver spot in india ...... if u wl get 2/3 kgs .... for yrself i mean .... u wl get nearly 2000 per kg now .....
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 10:46:45 AM): i am just reproducing what i wrote about tech stockson 5th sept .... that is last week ..... madhav ranade (9/5/2008 10:14:20 AM): tech stocks ...... nasdaq is falling everyday ..... and most tech cos hv hedged full quarters earning at 41 rs a dollar ...... why r we rejoicing ...... i see a 7 to 10 % downside for the sector unless nifty is going to move up 8/10 % in next 2/3 weeks .......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 10:51:35 AM): reliance - 1960/65 gap on hourly charts filled .... i had said that yesterday ..... cheers ...............
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 10:52:56 AM): nifty spot ..... we r within striking distance of 4228 ..... cheers ...... i hope now some of u wl look at what i write seriously ......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 11:21:11 AM): there is a chance that lehman may unwind their entire india portfolio in coming 2/3 days. they hv been unwinding over last 2 weeks but that is generally counterparty trades ... so it wl not hv any impact on market or FII figures. now they hv come to a stage where they wl hv to unwind - one shot - like what bear sterns did in march ...... so beware ..... i am told that they hold reliance , all adag stocks , nbventures, anantraj, sujana .... there could be some more names ..... we must keep in mind what happened to orchid ... may be evn 25 % of that damage takes place to smaller stocks .... it could be substantial ..... i think we wl hit 4180 ... sooner or later ..... cheers ..... remember better informed is better warned .... and take care ........
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 12:17:33 PM): nifty spot ...... europe likely to open strong ... so buy nifty between 4260/70 spot and sell around 4300 ... sl 4250 ........
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:06:46 PM): i am back. europe is positive as expected ..... IIP data is not bad .... but market is still sagging ..... it did not sustain above 4300 which was acid test for me .... so we r going down ... and again targets of 4228 and 4176 wl come in play ..... capital goods stocks hv given up all the gains made post IIP nos and let us see how they close ...
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:11:38 PM): it seems BOA and barclays are looking at lehman .... BOA bailed out a troubled morgage co - countrywide finance corpn - in february and then that co went bankrupt giving a major blow to BOA shareholders ..... i am not really very sure whether they wud like to risk shareholder money second time .... barclays bank is a london based bank and they will definitely be interested in complete buyout ... not only a stake .... let us see how the situation developes ... but it will hv some resolution by monday latest as lehman is on the brink ......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:15:40 PM): falling GRMs are really taking toll of RIL and RPL ..... the complete applecart has capsized as GRMs hv moved down drastically to single digits from midteens .... rpl will be a bigger loser and it depends 100 % on refinery operations while RIL has petchem / E&P business to fall back ..... we will rework figures next week ......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:23:11 PM): there is nearly 25 % wealth erosion for sterlite shareholders .... even malco has lost 25 % from peak ..... who said that restructuring is always beneficial for shareholders ! ! ! ! ! madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:25:22 PM): reliance - on daily charts there is a gap at 1785/92 ... looks like we r marching to fill that gap ... and then just imagine what happens to nifty ... and all eliot wave theories showing 4750 as targets .....
Friday, September 12, 2008
how do u interpret inflation figure ......
yesterdays inflation figure is 12.1 % ..... is it good ..... is it telling u the whole truth .....
pl look at week on week inflation figure .... and it has gone up by 5 ticks or 0.5 points or nearly 0.2 % .....
then why do u see reduction in inflation number put out by govt ...... it is because of the base effect ..... govt does not compare week on week .... they compare yr on yr on 52 week basis ..... so if 52 weeks ago jump was 7 or 8 ticks, and now it is 5 ticks, u wl find that govt will say that inflation is coming down .....
5 ticks week on week is simply unacceptable and it will reflect on the market today ....
so dont be sanguine with 12.1 % figure and try to look little beyond that .....
pl look at week on week inflation figure .... and it has gone up by 5 ticks or 0.5 points or nearly 0.2 % .....
then why do u see reduction in inflation number put out by govt ...... it is because of the base effect ..... govt does not compare week on week .... they compare yr on yr on 52 week basis ..... so if 52 weeks ago jump was 7 or 8 ticks, and now it is 5 ticks, u wl find that govt will say that inflation is coming down .....
5 ticks week on week is simply unacceptable and it will reflect on the market today ....
so dont be sanguine with 12.1 % figure and try to look little beyond that .....
archives - 11sept yahoo messenger posts
11th sept 2008
madhav ranade (9/11/2008 9:52:56 AM): good morning ! markets are sentiment driven ..... yesterday we had a 280 point dow fall to stare at and still we did not open too weak ..... today dow is positive .... and we wl be looking at 100 nifty points fall .... may be .... that is life ......
madhav ranade (9/11/2008 11:15:35 AM): next possible nifty cash levels - 4311/4285 ..... let us see .....
madhav ranade (9/11/2008 11:22:28 AM): yesterday there was one tech analyst on CNBC ..... who said that US markets are not looking bad. what happens is that once u hv publicly taken a bullish stance, u wl do everything to justify that ..... it is not easy to accept thatsomething has gone wrong and may be the whole thing is not working out as expected ..... it can happen to anyone ... infact it does happen to everyone ... so to safeguard against that, we hv to ensure that we give correct sl level .... which is not so close as to trigger by a single spike but also not so deep that it wl leave a big scar when triggered .... you must hv seen my stoplosses are reasonable and no issue if it is triggered .....
madhav ranade (9/11/2008 11:35:16 AM): paru v: after nuclear deal everyone acted as if there is no stopping till 18000 madhav ranade: if u r reading my posts regularly, u wld hv known exactly what was coming ..... if u hv not read ... pl go to www.sumamurauvach.blogspot.com madhav ranade: udayan and all are childish, u shud see shanker sharamas interview .... u wl see how he was prodding him to give some bullish indications .....
madhav ranade (9/11/2008 12:46:32 PM): nifty cash ..... 4285 hit ......
madhav ranade (9/11/2008 12:51:04 PM): nifty spot .... if we break 4280 decisively ... we hv 4228 / 4176 on cards .......
madhav ranade (9/11/2008 1:18:19 PM): below 2000, reliance looks really dicey ...... on hourly chart we hv a gap between 1960/1965 ..... it may try to fill that gap today ...... with obviously disastrous consequences for nifty as well ............. watch out .......
madhav ranade (9/11/2008 3:26:25 PM): neyvelli - i wl start buying neyveli in 100/105 zone .... we r getting there .... buy 30 % in that zone .... another 30 % in 95 /100 zone and balance 40 % in 90/95 zone ..... to me it looks the best buy in power sector ..... with captive lignite mines and good cash in balance sheet ..... and no gujrath like directive hanging on the head ....
madhav ranade (9/11/2008 3:38:27 PM): crude below 102 ..... but now the US markets are not jubilant anymore ...... the zing in crude falling is gone ..... like inflation figure for our markets ..... bigger things to worry are hard economic realities ..... if lehman falls ... it is going to give a telling blow to american markets .... and may be we r nor far from it ..... inspite of the open govt coffers for any type and amount of funding ..... it is really a sad tale ....
Thursday, September 11, 2008
archives of messenger postings for 8th / 9th / 10th september
archives of messenger postings for 8th / 9th / 10th sept.
some important messages are highlighted in red.
10th sept 2008
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 9:51:58 AM): good morning ! we shud be dancing to the tunes of dow .... fall will not be severe since futures are up a bit ..... if futures change course anytime during the day we will hv a sharp fall ..... keep that in mind and dont take agressive long posns .... shorts created yesterday afternoon can be booked at about nifty level of 4420/4430 ..... but continue with shorts if nifty is slipping below these levels at opening itself ......
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 9:55:23 AM): tatasteel is already clobbered ..... today it wl be SAIL ... i think so ......
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 9:59:32 AM): SAIL can go to 142 / 139 levels ..... watch out
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 10:02:23 AM): i am going to buy some silver for my personal consumption around 17,500 a kg ..... i decided that around 15th aug ..... i think i wl be able to buy in next few days ......
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 10:26:55 AM): reliance may now slide to 2087/2090 zone ......
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 10:28:50 AM): reliance 2100 put ..... we can book profit around 58/60 ..... yesterday it was recommended to buy around 38/39 ..........
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 10:36:44 AM): nasdaq composit is below 15th july closing low and s&p is juat above that ...... dow is approaching but still away ....... things r not looking exactly bright and as i said yesterday the US govt has played its last trump already ...... we must remain extremely extremely cautious .......
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 11:04:17 AM): silver has a major support at 10.45/10.55 dollar zone ..... so another 5/6 % slide can not be ruled out ..... and if rupe appreciates by say 3/4 % ... which is also entirely possible ..... we may hv a 8/9 % fall in rupee terms ..... then it is a good buying opportunity for physical buying .... i dont mean for speculation and trading ......
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 11:47:26 AM): in a bull market, all flag and penant breakouts work and work very well ...... but they wl not in bear market .... particularly upside breakouts .....
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:08:04 PM): dow futures are fluctuating wildly ...... normally this does not happen .....
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:09:36 PM): looks like hangseng is catching a downtrend .....
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:38:46 PM): so 20 rupees made on reliance 2100 put ...... this was virtually risk free .... and in less than a day .... cheers ......
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:40:47 PM): all nuclear deal related stocks wl slowly go back to their last week lows ...... may be in 5/7 sessions ....
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:43:29 PM): SAIL ..... didn't i tell u in the morning .... sail wl go to 142/139 .... from 148 at that time ....it has hit 140 already ...... cheers ....... 4/5 % in a day is serious money ... atleast for me .....
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:49:18 PM): people who hold reliance in cash can sell 2220 cal at 25 rs ..... looks safe ....
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:52:19 PM): now we shud look at 4383 nifty spot .... cheers ..........
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 2:47:48 PM): NIFTY spot ..... i had given next stop as 4383 ..... we hv hit 4385 odd ...... cheers ..........madhav ranade (9/10/2008 2:52:10 PM): 4383 breached ...... let us watch ........
9th sept 2008
madhav ranade (9/9/2008 9:50:00 AM): good morning !
madhav ranade (9/9/2008 10:09:24 AM): NTPC - 180 put ..... target achieved at 6 rs ..... cheers ......
madhav ranade (9/9/2008 11:04:58 AM): as far as US is concerned, they hv played their last trump ...... now if financials drift, there is very little thay can do ...... in fact china is worried as they see no end to this housing / credit crisis ..... they hv every reason to be worried as they r holding more than 1 trillion US liquid assets ..... and the continuing problems are causing them some capital erosion ...... they keep generating so much forex surplus every year that they hv no choice but to park the same in US securities only ..... really it is a problem of PLENTY .....
madhav ranade (9/9/2008 11:24:31 AM): i will be issuing a midweek review on thursday morning for paid customers of posn trading group .... this wl cover levels for 15 /20 active stocks ....
madhav ranade (9/9/2008 2:47:29 PM): pl buy back reliance 2100 put where we hv booked profit in the morning .....madhav ranade (9/9/2008 3:14:44 PM): reliance 2100 put - sl 30
8th sept 2008
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 9:47:09 AM): good morning ! pl read my blog www.sumamurauvach.blogspot.com
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 9:54:20 AM): frenzied short covering will happen from retail ...... FIIs may use the opportunity to press shorts further ...... they wl cover shorts when there will be a small dip in the market ..... so book profits when going is good and reenter at lower levels .....
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:03:40 AM): exit ntpc 180 call around 9.5/10 and lt 2700 call around 210/220 .... cheers ................
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:10:23 AM): having exited ntpc 180 call, now buy ntpc 180 put around 3/3.25 ...... cheers .... this move will not sustain ...........
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:15:21 AM): madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:13:33 AM): watch my trading levels ..... posn trading levels i mean ..... they r in a file uploaded today on my free group ...... http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/sumamura-free/
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:14:53 AM): u wl find corrected levels of nifty and bse sent separately in a message .... after the freddy / fanny bailout .....
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:19:03 AM): LT 2700 call ..... a mistake in giving selling level .... i looked at 2600 call level .... correct exit level is around 135 ......
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:38:35 AM): personnally, i expected a much stronger rally than what we hv seen ...... i think this is showing inherent weakness in the market .....
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:46:43 AM): exit ntpc 180 call ..... now ..... if u r still holding ...... the fun is over ...............
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:54:13 AM): pl think over before hitching yr bandwagon to nuclear cart ....... how many of u remember what happened to textile / textile machinery stocks ..... after quotas were removed ....... the stocks became 3 times thinking that india will be only exporting country in the world and now they hv fallen wayside ...... what i mean is any gains are minimum 3/5 yrs away ... so be cautious ......
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 11:32:25 AM): one of my paid client made 27000 in NTPC straddles ..... on investment of 20,000 rs ..... cheers ...........
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 12:23:52 PM): petro cos / refiners ...... there is pressure on govt to reduce petroproduct prices .... half the increase shud be given back ..... this is election gimmick ..... this wl reduce inflation by 0.7 / 0.8 % after 3 weeks ..... sell govt owned petrleum marketing cos as well as ongc ............ madhav ranade (9/8/2008 12:25:43 PM): sell ntpc 160 put ..... other leg of the straddle for 50 paise ......
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 1:28:20 PM): looks like fancy of NSG waiver has waned and all the related stocks are correcting from high levels reached ...... what is holding up market is gains due to dow futures ..... let us see how that story developes .... we hv seen in the past that steroids hv not worked more than a cople of days ......
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 2:00:23 PM): i think retail wl cover their shorts or they may hv already completed covering ..... i think todays trading warrants short covering from FIIs .... in fact if there is a bounce upto 4550, they wl press fresh shorts ..... they know that rally in dow may fizzle out today itself ..... look at dow futures they hv come down from 280 plus to about 220 plus and ftse is not going much beyond 200 points plus ..... that too after huge short covering at london which had lost close to 400 points in last 3 sessions ..... i wl not bet on FII short covering at this point .......
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 2:27:14 PM): icici / ntpc look criticall poised ............
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 3:08:54 PM): look at rcom 380 put / reliance 2100 put / ntpc 180 put ...... all told to buy to paid clients ...... cheers .............
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 3:31:03 PM): i had told around 2 pm ..... that the levels do not warrant serious short covering ..... and when short covering did not happen .... long liquidation has happened ..... so a very satisfying day ..... cheers ..... see u tomorrow ......
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
things playing out as expected .....
as mentioned yesterday, US did not have a massive flare-up and today morning, asia has given back 50 % of the gains
chances are that we will also give-up another 50/60 nifty points at the opening or in the first one hour
NSG trigger has played out and that also turned out to be a rather low key affair ..... everyone had expected a huge rally and sustained one ..... but it has turned out a rather damp squib ..... let the channel anchors show 4 to 5 % as big gains ... at the close i mean ..... but in their hearts, they must hv been mighty disappointed ........ now i expect these stocks to drift lower and settle at same or slightly higher level than last week lows .....
as we witnessed in textile quota episode, the dog eat dog world outside, is much more competitive than the cosy environment of domestic business where all kinds of protections are available and no hanging sword of exchange rate fluctuation .....
i will write more about this nuclear equipment supply related matter in the days to come .....
one more point, my paid clients hv bought some puts yesterday, which will be harvested today ..... some new recos will be sent today during the course of the day .....
cheers till then ......
chances are that we will also give-up another 50/60 nifty points at the opening or in the first one hour
NSG trigger has played out and that also turned out to be a rather low key affair ..... everyone had expected a huge rally and sustained one ..... but it has turned out a rather damp squib ..... let the channel anchors show 4 to 5 % as big gains ... at the close i mean ..... but in their hearts, they must hv been mighty disappointed ........ now i expect these stocks to drift lower and settle at same or slightly higher level than last week lows .....
as we witnessed in textile quota episode, the dog eat dog world outside, is much more competitive than the cosy environment of domestic business where all kinds of protections are available and no hanging sword of exchange rate fluctuation .....
i will write more about this nuclear equipment supply related matter in the days to come .....
one more point, my paid clients hv bought some puts yesterday, which will be harvested today ..... some new recos will be sent today during the course of the day .....
cheers till then ......
Monday, September 8, 2008
a big gap-up but will there be follow-up ? ? ?
200 point gap-up is given for nifty .... may be evn stronger but for heavens sake - dont chase prices ...... we will have huge scramble for short covering and individual stocks will simply flare-up ..... in such a situation we must wait for sanity to prevail before we take any investment decision.
if you r holding any nuclear deal related stocks and if you see huge spike ..... just get out and may be you will be able to get in again at 5 % lower price today itself ......
freddy / fanny takeover is another instance of dialysis for kidney failure patient ..... we hv to see how long this can go on ..... american markets will go up but in much more muted way than several asian markets ...... so tomorrow will become crucial unless we hv a massive flare-up in american markets as well ..... but chances for that are rather low .....
so trade cautiously and book wherevr you see humongous profits ......
our straddles are going to bring windfall gains ..... remember that as well .....
if you r holding any nuclear deal related stocks and if you see huge spike ..... just get out and may be you will be able to get in again at 5 % lower price today itself ......
freddy / fanny takeover is another instance of dialysis for kidney failure patient ..... we hv to see how long this can go on ..... american markets will go up but in much more muted way than several asian markets ...... so tomorrow will become crucial unless we hv a massive flare-up in american markets as well ..... but chances for that are rather low .....
so trade cautiously and book wherevr you see humongous profits ......
our straddles are going to bring windfall gains ..... remember that as well .....
archives of yahoo messenger - 5th september
5th september 2008
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 9:55:20 AM): good morning ! what shud i say ...... everything is working out as explained earlier ..... on tuesday some people were saying yr logic is impeccable but it was not yr day ...... but i never say anything for intraday ...... as long as things play out over a week or two- i am more than happy ..... nifty shud open about 80 points down and all puts recommended to buy yesterday shud make reasonable money ..... i am happy to say the least ...... try and buy aban 1round 2060/2080 if it is available around that rate .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 10:04:36 AM): no particular stock has massively cracked ..... it is a secular downswing of 2/3 % ...... i wl read it as sign of strength .... but i wl prefer to wait for another 10 / 15 mins to see if any cracks r opening in some stocks .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 10:14:20 AM): tech stocks ...... nasdaq is falling everyday ..... and most tech cos hv hedged full quarters earning at 41 rs a dollar ...... why r we rejoicing ...... i see a 7 to 10 % downside for the sector unless nifty is going to move up 8/10 % in next 2/3 weeks .......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 11:14:12 AM): NSG meet ...... i am getting a feeling that govt is in a mood to accept NSG waiver in whatever format it comes ..... unless it is absolutely damning ..... and then try and prove to the nation by interpreting every clause to our advantage ...... when u r in power .... only u r privy to all the information while opposition is only guessing and reacting to what is in public domain ...... so it is normally possible to brush aside some small unacceptable differences under the pretext of ambiguity etc ...... i wl now put that chances are 80/20 in favour of nsg waiver .... since we r ready to compromise ......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:07:07 PM): except india and USA - most other indices are either at 52 week lows or very close to that ....... i think this shud be kept in mind while taking any aggressive longs ..... i hope u hv seen shankar sharma's interview ... inspite of constant bullish prodding by udayan ..... he held his own and this is a must see interview ..... i think he spoke very well .... very balanced and never brought emotions ( they were visible on udayan's face - all the time ) ....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:51:31 PM): nifty .... we may go up till about 4364 or 4382 ... as ftse is getting closer to neutral zone and hangseng is also cutting losses .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:54:07 PM): nifty - my downside taget of 4328 was achived an there is a bounce ..... u may get a bounce upto levels as mentioned earlier ... if it crosses 4382 .... we will review .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:58:05 PM): steel stocks are going to be under the hammer now .... all US steel stocks also correcting heavily ....... we can see 7/8 % correction easily .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 1:39:36 PM): looks like 4382 is going to hold ..... ftse going down sharply .......... madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:35:19 PM): FTSE - 95 minus ..... this may be third day in a row when ftse wud hv lost over 100 points ......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:38:08 PM): in the morning i wrote about techs .... see infy / satyam and wipro ..... cheers .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:44:32 PM): market movement and stock price is a function of several known and unknown variables .... if we just start looking from one angle like inflation or crude etc, then people kep on wondering why market is going down ... atleast try to look at all known variables .... put values ... look at their interlinkages and co-relations .... then u may get a better picture .... inspite of that ... there will be ffect of a few unnownvariables ... but we cant do anything about that ..... if life was so simple ... like crude down then market up or inflation down then market up etc .... no body wud hv worked and just sat infront of a laptop and traded ..... isnt it ??????????????
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:58:05 PM): tata steel is really under hammer .... i said so in the morning .... chartically now a major support level is around 500 ... if it closes below 562 which looks likely .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:59:59 PM): look at hindalco / tisco / telco ..... all big deal makers ... all of them are in trouble .... i hope infy does not hv the same fate ...... although the deal is yet to go thru ......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:01:19 PM): how many of you remember ... the note i wrote after JLR deal .... are we becoming kabadi's of the world ????????
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:04:40 PM): look at bharat forge ... baba is sitting in the boardrooms all over the world .... but where is the stockprice .... it is one thing to do business in india ... when u can pay 200 dollars a month for labourers .... and the other part of the world where u hv to pay min 100 dollars a day ....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:21:39 PM): make straddles in nuclear deal related stocks ..... buy just out of the money puts and calls .... yesterday i was thinking the deal wl not go thru ..... but it seems our govt is reluctant to walk away from the table ..... so they wl take whatever is dished out .... in that case we hv to cover upside also ..... hence the straddles .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:27:37 PM): at NSG level ... everybody will be smart enough to draft something which can be read / interpreted in 3/4 different ways ..... that is why earlier we were insisting on 'clean' waiver ..... now since that becomes difficult to come, either we hv to walk away or accept with a slightly distorted waiver ..... anyway we r not going to test imdtly ... the govt at that time will face the consequences .... man-son team wl go in hisyory books ......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 9:55:20 AM): good morning ! what shud i say ...... everything is working out as explained earlier ..... on tuesday some people were saying yr logic is impeccable but it was not yr day ...... but i never say anything for intraday ...... as long as things play out over a week or two- i am more than happy ..... nifty shud open about 80 points down and all puts recommended to buy yesterday shud make reasonable money ..... i am happy to say the least ...... try and buy aban 1round 2060/2080 if it is available around that rate .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 10:04:36 AM): no particular stock has massively cracked ..... it is a secular downswing of 2/3 % ...... i wl read it as sign of strength .... but i wl prefer to wait for another 10 / 15 mins to see if any cracks r opening in some stocks .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 10:14:20 AM): tech stocks ...... nasdaq is falling everyday ..... and most tech cos hv hedged full quarters earning at 41 rs a dollar ...... why r we rejoicing ...... i see a 7 to 10 % downside for the sector unless nifty is going to move up 8/10 % in next 2/3 weeks .......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 11:14:12 AM): NSG meet ...... i am getting a feeling that govt is in a mood to accept NSG waiver in whatever format it comes ..... unless it is absolutely damning ..... and then try and prove to the nation by interpreting every clause to our advantage ...... when u r in power .... only u r privy to all the information while opposition is only guessing and reacting to what is in public domain ...... so it is normally possible to brush aside some small unacceptable differences under the pretext of ambiguity etc ...... i wl now put that chances are 80/20 in favour of nsg waiver .... since we r ready to compromise ......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:07:07 PM): except india and USA - most other indices are either at 52 week lows or very close to that ....... i think this shud be kept in mind while taking any aggressive longs ..... i hope u hv seen shankar sharma's interview ... inspite of constant bullish prodding by udayan ..... he held his own and this is a must see interview ..... i think he spoke very well .... very balanced and never brought emotions ( they were visible on udayan's face - all the time ) ....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:51:31 PM): nifty .... we may go up till about 4364 or 4382 ... as ftse is getting closer to neutral zone and hangseng is also cutting losses .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:54:07 PM): nifty - my downside taget of 4328 was achived an there is a bounce ..... u may get a bounce upto levels as mentioned earlier ... if it crosses 4382 .... we will review .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:58:05 PM): steel stocks are going to be under the hammer now .... all US steel stocks also correcting heavily ....... we can see 7/8 % correction easily .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 1:39:36 PM): looks like 4382 is going to hold ..... ftse going down sharply .......... madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:35:19 PM): FTSE - 95 minus ..... this may be third day in a row when ftse wud hv lost over 100 points ......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:38:08 PM): in the morning i wrote about techs .... see infy / satyam and wipro ..... cheers .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:44:32 PM): market movement and stock price is a function of several known and unknown variables .... if we just start looking from one angle like inflation or crude etc, then people kep on wondering why market is going down ... atleast try to look at all known variables .... put values ... look at their interlinkages and co-relations .... then u may get a better picture .... inspite of that ... there will be ffect of a few unnownvariables ... but we cant do anything about that ..... if life was so simple ... like crude down then market up or inflation down then market up etc .... no body wud hv worked and just sat infront of a laptop and traded ..... isnt it ??????????????
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:58:05 PM): tata steel is really under hammer .... i said so in the morning .... chartically now a major support level is around 500 ... if it closes below 562 which looks likely .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:59:59 PM): look at hindalco / tisco / telco ..... all big deal makers ... all of them are in trouble .... i hope infy does not hv the same fate ...... although the deal is yet to go thru ......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:01:19 PM): how many of you remember ... the note i wrote after JLR deal .... are we becoming kabadi's of the world ????????
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:04:40 PM): look at bharat forge ... baba is sitting in the boardrooms all over the world .... but where is the stockprice .... it is one thing to do business in india ... when u can pay 200 dollars a month for labourers .... and the other part of the world where u hv to pay min 100 dollars a day ....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:21:39 PM): make straddles in nuclear deal related stocks ..... buy just out of the money puts and calls .... yesterday i was thinking the deal wl not go thru ..... but it seems our govt is reluctant to walk away from the table ..... so they wl take whatever is dished out .... in that case we hv to cover upside also ..... hence the straddles .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:27:37 PM): at NSG level ... everybody will be smart enough to draft something which can be read / interpreted in 3/4 different ways ..... that is why earlier we were insisting on 'clean' waiver ..... now since that becomes difficult to come, either we hv to walk away or accept with a slightly distorted waiver ..... anyway we r not going to test imdtly ... the govt at that time will face the consequences .... man-son team wl go in hisyory books ......
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