18th september 2008
madhav ranade (9/18/2008 9:55:49 AM): good morning ! what shud i say ? last mondays rally was not at all convincing for me ..... and tuesdays pullback even less ..... so i hv been recommending to go short or atleast cut longs at every stage ...... i hv been watching charts for all indices every day and weakness was palpable ..... but everyone was made to believe the other way ..... so now we pay the price .....
madhav ranade (9/18/2008 9:57:16 AM): i hv been telling u that trust only shankar sharma and ramesh damani ...... everyone else is a hoax ......
madhav ranade (9/18/2008 10:12:28 AM): just forget terms like short term / mid term bottom etc ...... that is only for babbling hours on when u hv nothing else to say ...... the problems in global financial markets are currently un-fathomable ..... that is reality ....
madhav ranade (9/18/2008 12:47:00 PM): signing out now .... shud be back by 3 pm ......
17th september 2008
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 9:04:43 AM): good morning ! i am back ..... i had told u on fiday morning that lehman debacle is waiting to happen and u wl see lot of blood on screen on in next one or two days ...... it did happen that way ..... PL NOTE THAT STEROIDS DONT WORK FOR MORE THAN COUPLE OF DAYS ...... AIG is bailed out ..... and this one has not worked even 4 hrs ..... dow futures shot up and they are already near negitive zone as i am typing this message ..... yesterdays recovery was used by smart people to exit stuck longs ... but some hv built longs as depicted by nifty fut premium ..... no one can help these greedy souls ..... i will need some time to get grip on the market again as lots has happened in last 2 days when i was away and i must take stock ..... mrkets shud open in red ... as it looks now ..... take care
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:00:39 AM): as expected we hv opened in the red ..... marginally though ..... AIG is virtually nationalised .... which can not be a GOOD NEWS to rejoice .... keep that in mind ..... today US markets will react vigorously ..... and i dont like to be trapped on the wrong side .....
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:03:47 AM): satyam / tatachem / neyveli / suzlon can be looked at from med term perspective ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:05:35 AM): yesterday MRPL was a great buy around 52/53 levels ..... keep watching that stock closer to 50/52 ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:07:23 AM): icici has gap around 555 on weekly charts ..... rcap has a gap around 999 ...... keep watching .......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:14:50 AM): i feel that neyveli at this level is a much better buy than NTPC ...... pl switch if u trust me ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:22:46 AM): CNBC anchors ..... or shud we say child anchors ..... hv a very nasty habit of asking 'leading ' questions ..... if the person who is giving an interview feels the bottom is in place .... he will say so ..... anchors dont hv to prod him to say so ..... there are only a handful of people who wl hv a knack to say what they want to say .... inspite of consistent prodding ...... other will fall into the traps of 'leading' questions .......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:37:44 AM): many tech analysts are still refusing to accept the reality and still living in the dreams they had last monday morning ..... they hv put on dark goggles meant for bright sun .... and then driving in the night ......
madhav ranade: market cap of AIG .. at yesterdays closing was around 10 billion dollars .....
madhav ranade: wl any govt wl give 8 times market cap as loan ...... unless it was a desperate situation ... to avert financial disaster which wud hv happened if AIG were to belly-up ..... this is time to introspect and not to rejoice ..... how badly the american economy was handled for last several years ..... also u may look at it as bane of capitalism .......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 1:32:56 PM): as per CNBC child anchors perspective ...... a 3 hours rally is good enough for "short term bottom to be in place " ............ cheers to them and to their childish wisdom ................ madhav ranade (9/17/2008 1:36:45 PM): my charts are saying that IFCI has slipped below 40 ...... as per some gurus, it is a 'goldmine' .... i think it is a defunct or abandoned gold mine ...... all the gold was taken out by operators when it hit 120 9/10 months ago ..... now they shud convert it into a tourist spot ......madhav ranade (9/17/2008 1:39:59 PM): when AIG trades at around 10 billion dollar market cap ....... how much wl somebody pay for junk like IFCI ???????? and that to whyyyyyyyyyyy ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:17:27 PM): FTSE recovery ...... HBOS ... a large UK lender was nearly 42 % down .... it has recovered to just 2 % down now ..... hence FTSE has recoved but royal bank of scotland is still struggling .......madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:21:41 PM): HBOS is halifax bank of scotland ..... it is a large insurer and financier ..... it was trading at 45 % discount a about half an hour ago ...... has recovered since then ..........
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:30:33 PM): HBOS holds 20 % of national savings in UK ...... but it was going at less than 5 billion pounds market cap about 45 mins ago .... this shows the enormity of credit problemmm.... actually there is no end in sight ..... as all these financial institutions are so interlinked that u save one but another gets ready to bust in 48 hrs ...... i dont know whether even the fed understands how the things are going to unfold in next few weeks an months ...... it is like when the baby is crying .... without knowing what is the problem - first thing u do is feed him ..... fed did that 6 months ago by throwing money in the system and lowering interest rates ..... but now the malice has gone far beyond and amputation may be only way out ...... but the problem is ampute what ????????????
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:40:27 PM): today trading going on all major exchanges is simply like having a roller coaster ride with 2 or 3 loops ..... at the end u come out completely exhausted and groggy but u enjoy immensely when it is going on ...... i am infront of my terminal .... browsing several several websites for possible clues .... and believe me there has been not a dull moment ....... simply invigotating to say the least ....... cheeeeeeeeers .......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:46:10 PM): more than 75 lac shares traded on icici counter in last 45 mins ...... price range from 530 to 575 ....... some heady buying has happened .......madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:48:06 PM): icici has left 525 gap unfilled ...... so it has left chance for one more downswing .........
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:52:14 PM): US fed and SEC has already started looking for a suitor for washington mutual ...... yhat seems to be next in line after AIG ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 3:25:49 PM): if u hv any holding in IFCI, pl sell and buy half qty of IDFC ...... it is a far better switch ....... it wl improve quality of your portfolio from junk to 'investment grade' .........
12th september 2008
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 9:53:57 AM): good morning ! a slightly positive opening ..... but inflation nos are definitely not entirely benign and these wl play on the market as well as interest sensitives after initial 15/20 mins ..... keep watching ......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 10:08:12 AM): buy some silver .... if u can .... there is a nearly 15 % difference in silver casl international and silver spot in india ...... if u wl get 2/3 kgs .... for yrself i mean .... u wl get nearly 2000 per kg now .....
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 10:46:45 AM): i am just reproducing what i wrote about tech stockson 5th sept .... that is last week ..... madhav ranade (9/5/2008 10:14:20 AM): tech stocks ...... nasdaq is falling everyday ..... and most tech cos hv hedged full quarters earning at 41 rs a dollar ...... why r we rejoicing ...... i see a 7 to 10 % downside for the sector unless nifty is going to move up 8/10 % in next 2/3 weeks .......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 10:51:35 AM): reliance - 1960/65 gap on hourly charts filled .... i had said that yesterday ..... cheers ...............
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 10:52:56 AM): nifty spot ..... we r within striking distance of 4228 ..... cheers ...... i hope now some of u wl look at what i write seriously ......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 11:21:11 AM): there is a chance that lehman may unwind their entire india portfolio in coming 2/3 days. they hv been unwinding over last 2 weeks but that is generally counterparty trades ... so it wl not hv any impact on market or FII figures. now they hv come to a stage where they wl hv to unwind - one shot - like what bear sterns did in march ...... so beware ..... i am told that they hold reliance , all adag stocks , nbventures, anantraj, sujana .... there could be some more names ..... we must keep in mind what happened to orchid ... may be evn 25 % of that damage takes place to smaller stocks .... it could be substantial ..... i think we wl hit 4180 ... sooner or later ..... cheers ..... remember better informed is better warned .... and take care ........
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 12:17:33 PM): nifty spot ...... europe likely to open strong ... so buy nifty between 4260/70 spot and sell around 4300 ... sl 4250 ........
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:06:46 PM): i am back. europe is positive as expected ..... IIP data is not bad .... but market is still sagging ..... it did not sustain above 4300 which was acid test for me .... so we r going down ... and again targets of 4228 and 4176 wl come in play ..... capital goods stocks hv given up all the gains made post IIP nos and let us see how they close ...
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:11:38 PM): it seems BOA and barclays are looking at lehman .... BOA bailed out a troubled morgage co - countrywide finance corpn - in february and then that co went bankrupt giving a major blow to BOA shareholders ..... i am not really very sure whether they wud like to risk shareholder money second time .... barclays bank is a london based bank and they will definitely be interested in complete buyout ... not only a stake .... let us see how the situation developes ... but it will hv some resolution by monday latest as lehman is on the brink ......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:15:40 PM): falling GRMs are really taking toll of RIL and RPL ..... the complete applecart has capsized as GRMs hv moved down drastically to single digits from midteens .... rpl will be a bigger loser and it depends 100 % on refinery operations while RIL has petchem / E&P business to fall back ..... we will rework figures next week ......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:23:11 PM): there is nearly 25 % wealth erosion for sterlite shareholders .... even malco has lost 25 % from peak ..... who said that restructuring is always beneficial for shareholders ! ! ! ! ! madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:25:22 PM): reliance - on daily charts there is a gap at 1785/92 ... looks like we r marching to fill that gap ... and then just imagine what happens to nifty ... and all eliot wave theories showing 4750 as targets .....
Friday, September 19, 2008
Friday, September 12, 2008
how do u interpret inflation figure ......
yesterdays inflation figure is 12.1 % ..... is it good ..... is it telling u the whole truth .....
pl look at week on week inflation figure .... and it has gone up by 5 ticks or 0.5 points or nearly 0.2 % .....
then why do u see reduction in inflation number put out by govt ...... it is because of the base effect ..... govt does not compare week on week .... they compare yr on yr on 52 week basis ..... so if 52 weeks ago jump was 7 or 8 ticks, and now it is 5 ticks, u wl find that govt will say that inflation is coming down .....
5 ticks week on week is simply unacceptable and it will reflect on the market today ....
so dont be sanguine with 12.1 % figure and try to look little beyond that .....
pl look at week on week inflation figure .... and it has gone up by 5 ticks or 0.5 points or nearly 0.2 % .....
then why do u see reduction in inflation number put out by govt ...... it is because of the base effect ..... govt does not compare week on week .... they compare yr on yr on 52 week basis ..... so if 52 weeks ago jump was 7 or 8 ticks, and now it is 5 ticks, u wl find that govt will say that inflation is coming down .....
5 ticks week on week is simply unacceptable and it will reflect on the market today ....
so dont be sanguine with 12.1 % figure and try to look little beyond that .....
archives - 11sept yahoo messenger posts
11th sept 2008
madhav ranade (9/11/2008 9:52:56 AM): good morning ! markets are sentiment driven ..... yesterday we had a 280 point dow fall to stare at and still we did not open too weak ..... today dow is positive .... and we wl be looking at 100 nifty points fall .... may be .... that is life ......
madhav ranade (9/11/2008 11:15:35 AM): next possible nifty cash levels - 4311/4285 ..... let us see .....
madhav ranade (9/11/2008 11:22:28 AM): yesterday there was one tech analyst on CNBC ..... who said that US markets are not looking bad. what happens is that once u hv publicly taken a bullish stance, u wl do everything to justify that ..... it is not easy to accept thatsomething has gone wrong and may be the whole thing is not working out as expected ..... it can happen to anyone ... infact it does happen to everyone ... so to safeguard against that, we hv to ensure that we give correct sl level .... which is not so close as to trigger by a single spike but also not so deep that it wl leave a big scar when triggered .... you must hv seen my stoplosses are reasonable and no issue if it is triggered .....
madhav ranade (9/11/2008 11:35:16 AM): paru v: after nuclear deal everyone acted as if there is no stopping till 18000 madhav ranade: if u r reading my posts regularly, u wld hv known exactly what was coming ..... if u hv not read ... pl go to www.sumamurauvach.blogspot.com madhav ranade: udayan and all are childish, u shud see shanker sharamas interview .... u wl see how he was prodding him to give some bullish indications .....
madhav ranade (9/11/2008 12:46:32 PM): nifty cash ..... 4285 hit ......
madhav ranade (9/11/2008 12:51:04 PM): nifty spot .... if we break 4280 decisively ... we hv 4228 / 4176 on cards .......
madhav ranade (9/11/2008 1:18:19 PM): below 2000, reliance looks really dicey ...... on hourly chart we hv a gap between 1960/1965 ..... it may try to fill that gap today ...... with obviously disastrous consequences for nifty as well ............. watch out .......
madhav ranade (9/11/2008 3:26:25 PM): neyvelli - i wl start buying neyveli in 100/105 zone .... we r getting there .... buy 30 % in that zone .... another 30 % in 95 /100 zone and balance 40 % in 90/95 zone ..... to me it looks the best buy in power sector ..... with captive lignite mines and good cash in balance sheet ..... and no gujrath like directive hanging on the head ....
madhav ranade (9/11/2008 3:38:27 PM): crude below 102 ..... but now the US markets are not jubilant anymore ...... the zing in crude falling is gone ..... like inflation figure for our markets ..... bigger things to worry are hard economic realities ..... if lehman falls ... it is going to give a telling blow to american markets .... and may be we r nor far from it ..... inspite of the open govt coffers for any type and amount of funding ..... it is really a sad tale ....
Thursday, September 11, 2008
archives of messenger postings for 8th / 9th / 10th september
archives of messenger postings for 8th / 9th / 10th sept.
some important messages are highlighted in red.
10th sept 2008
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 9:51:58 AM): good morning ! we shud be dancing to the tunes of dow .... fall will not be severe since futures are up a bit ..... if futures change course anytime during the day we will hv a sharp fall ..... keep that in mind and dont take agressive long posns .... shorts created yesterday afternoon can be booked at about nifty level of 4420/4430 ..... but continue with shorts if nifty is slipping below these levels at opening itself ......
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 9:55:23 AM): tatasteel is already clobbered ..... today it wl be SAIL ... i think so ......
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 9:59:32 AM): SAIL can go to 142 / 139 levels ..... watch out
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 10:02:23 AM): i am going to buy some silver for my personal consumption around 17,500 a kg ..... i decided that around 15th aug ..... i think i wl be able to buy in next few days ......
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 10:26:55 AM): reliance may now slide to 2087/2090 zone ......
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 10:28:50 AM): reliance 2100 put ..... we can book profit around 58/60 ..... yesterday it was recommended to buy around 38/39 ..........
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 10:36:44 AM): nasdaq composit is below 15th july closing low and s&p is juat above that ...... dow is approaching but still away ....... things r not looking exactly bright and as i said yesterday the US govt has played its last trump already ...... we must remain extremely extremely cautious .......
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 11:04:17 AM): silver has a major support at 10.45/10.55 dollar zone ..... so another 5/6 % slide can not be ruled out ..... and if rupe appreciates by say 3/4 % ... which is also entirely possible ..... we may hv a 8/9 % fall in rupee terms ..... then it is a good buying opportunity for physical buying .... i dont mean for speculation and trading ......
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 11:47:26 AM): in a bull market, all flag and penant breakouts work and work very well ...... but they wl not in bear market .... particularly upside breakouts .....
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:08:04 PM): dow futures are fluctuating wildly ...... normally this does not happen .....
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:09:36 PM): looks like hangseng is catching a downtrend .....
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:38:46 PM): so 20 rupees made on reliance 2100 put ...... this was virtually risk free .... and in less than a day .... cheers ......
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:40:47 PM): all nuclear deal related stocks wl slowly go back to their last week lows ...... may be in 5/7 sessions ....
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:43:29 PM): SAIL ..... didn't i tell u in the morning .... sail wl go to 142/139 .... from 148 at that time ....it has hit 140 already ...... cheers ....... 4/5 % in a day is serious money ... atleast for me .....
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:49:18 PM): people who hold reliance in cash can sell 2220 cal at 25 rs ..... looks safe ....
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:52:19 PM): now we shud look at 4383 nifty spot .... cheers ..........
madhav ranade (9/10/2008 2:47:48 PM): NIFTY spot ..... i had given next stop as 4383 ..... we hv hit 4385 odd ...... cheers ..........madhav ranade (9/10/2008 2:52:10 PM): 4383 breached ...... let us watch ........
9th sept 2008
madhav ranade (9/9/2008 9:50:00 AM): good morning !
madhav ranade (9/9/2008 10:09:24 AM): NTPC - 180 put ..... target achieved at 6 rs ..... cheers ......
madhav ranade (9/9/2008 11:04:58 AM): as far as US is concerned, they hv played their last trump ...... now if financials drift, there is very little thay can do ...... in fact china is worried as they see no end to this housing / credit crisis ..... they hv every reason to be worried as they r holding more than 1 trillion US liquid assets ..... and the continuing problems are causing them some capital erosion ...... they keep generating so much forex surplus every year that they hv no choice but to park the same in US securities only ..... really it is a problem of PLENTY .....
madhav ranade (9/9/2008 11:24:31 AM): i will be issuing a midweek review on thursday morning for paid customers of posn trading group .... this wl cover levels for 15 /20 active stocks ....
madhav ranade (9/9/2008 2:47:29 PM): pl buy back reliance 2100 put where we hv booked profit in the morning .....madhav ranade (9/9/2008 3:14:44 PM): reliance 2100 put - sl 30
8th sept 2008
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 9:47:09 AM): good morning ! pl read my blog www.sumamurauvach.blogspot.com
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 9:54:20 AM): frenzied short covering will happen from retail ...... FIIs may use the opportunity to press shorts further ...... they wl cover shorts when there will be a small dip in the market ..... so book profits when going is good and reenter at lower levels .....
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:03:40 AM): exit ntpc 180 call around 9.5/10 and lt 2700 call around 210/220 .... cheers ................
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:10:23 AM): having exited ntpc 180 call, now buy ntpc 180 put around 3/3.25 ...... cheers .... this move will not sustain ...........
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:15:21 AM): madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:13:33 AM): watch my trading levels ..... posn trading levels i mean ..... they r in a file uploaded today on my free group ...... http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/sumamura-free/
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:14:53 AM): u wl find corrected levels of nifty and bse sent separately in a message .... after the freddy / fanny bailout .....
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:19:03 AM): LT 2700 call ..... a mistake in giving selling level .... i looked at 2600 call level .... correct exit level is around 135 ......
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:38:35 AM): personnally, i expected a much stronger rally than what we hv seen ...... i think this is showing inherent weakness in the market .....
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:46:43 AM): exit ntpc 180 call ..... now ..... if u r still holding ...... the fun is over ...............
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:54:13 AM): pl think over before hitching yr bandwagon to nuclear cart ....... how many of u remember what happened to textile / textile machinery stocks ..... after quotas were removed ....... the stocks became 3 times thinking that india will be only exporting country in the world and now they hv fallen wayside ...... what i mean is any gains are minimum 3/5 yrs away ... so be cautious ......
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 11:32:25 AM): one of my paid client made 27000 in NTPC straddles ..... on investment of 20,000 rs ..... cheers ...........
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 12:23:52 PM): petro cos / refiners ...... there is pressure on govt to reduce petroproduct prices .... half the increase shud be given back ..... this is election gimmick ..... this wl reduce inflation by 0.7 / 0.8 % after 3 weeks ..... sell govt owned petrleum marketing cos as well as ongc ............ madhav ranade (9/8/2008 12:25:43 PM): sell ntpc 160 put ..... other leg of the straddle for 50 paise ......
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 1:28:20 PM): looks like fancy of NSG waiver has waned and all the related stocks are correcting from high levels reached ...... what is holding up market is gains due to dow futures ..... let us see how that story developes .... we hv seen in the past that steroids hv not worked more than a cople of days ......
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 2:00:23 PM): i think retail wl cover their shorts or they may hv already completed covering ..... i think todays trading warrants short covering from FIIs .... in fact if there is a bounce upto 4550, they wl press fresh shorts ..... they know that rally in dow may fizzle out today itself ..... look at dow futures they hv come down from 280 plus to about 220 plus and ftse is not going much beyond 200 points plus ..... that too after huge short covering at london which had lost close to 400 points in last 3 sessions ..... i wl not bet on FII short covering at this point .......
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 2:27:14 PM): icici / ntpc look criticall poised ............
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 3:08:54 PM): look at rcom 380 put / reliance 2100 put / ntpc 180 put ...... all told to buy to paid clients ...... cheers .............
madhav ranade (9/8/2008 3:31:03 PM): i had told around 2 pm ..... that the levels do not warrant serious short covering ..... and when short covering did not happen .... long liquidation has happened ..... so a very satisfying day ..... cheers ..... see u tomorrow ......
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
things playing out as expected .....
as mentioned yesterday, US did not have a massive flare-up and today morning, asia has given back 50 % of the gains
chances are that we will also give-up another 50/60 nifty points at the opening or in the first one hour
NSG trigger has played out and that also turned out to be a rather low key affair ..... everyone had expected a huge rally and sustained one ..... but it has turned out a rather damp squib ..... let the channel anchors show 4 to 5 % as big gains ... at the close i mean ..... but in their hearts, they must hv been mighty disappointed ........ now i expect these stocks to drift lower and settle at same or slightly higher level than last week lows .....
as we witnessed in textile quota episode, the dog eat dog world outside, is much more competitive than the cosy environment of domestic business where all kinds of protections are available and no hanging sword of exchange rate fluctuation .....
i will write more about this nuclear equipment supply related matter in the days to come .....
one more point, my paid clients hv bought some puts yesterday, which will be harvested today ..... some new recos will be sent today during the course of the day .....
cheers till then ......
chances are that we will also give-up another 50/60 nifty points at the opening or in the first one hour
NSG trigger has played out and that also turned out to be a rather low key affair ..... everyone had expected a huge rally and sustained one ..... but it has turned out a rather damp squib ..... let the channel anchors show 4 to 5 % as big gains ... at the close i mean ..... but in their hearts, they must hv been mighty disappointed ........ now i expect these stocks to drift lower and settle at same or slightly higher level than last week lows .....
as we witnessed in textile quota episode, the dog eat dog world outside, is much more competitive than the cosy environment of domestic business where all kinds of protections are available and no hanging sword of exchange rate fluctuation .....
i will write more about this nuclear equipment supply related matter in the days to come .....
one more point, my paid clients hv bought some puts yesterday, which will be harvested today ..... some new recos will be sent today during the course of the day .....
cheers till then ......
Monday, September 8, 2008
a big gap-up but will there be follow-up ? ? ?
200 point gap-up is given for nifty .... may be evn stronger but for heavens sake - dont chase prices ...... we will have huge scramble for short covering and individual stocks will simply flare-up ..... in such a situation we must wait for sanity to prevail before we take any investment decision.
if you r holding any nuclear deal related stocks and if you see huge spike ..... just get out and may be you will be able to get in again at 5 % lower price today itself ......
freddy / fanny takeover is another instance of dialysis for kidney failure patient ..... we hv to see how long this can go on ..... american markets will go up but in much more muted way than several asian markets ...... so tomorrow will become crucial unless we hv a massive flare-up in american markets as well ..... but chances for that are rather low .....
so trade cautiously and book wherevr you see humongous profits ......
our straddles are going to bring windfall gains ..... remember that as well .....
if you r holding any nuclear deal related stocks and if you see huge spike ..... just get out and may be you will be able to get in again at 5 % lower price today itself ......
freddy / fanny takeover is another instance of dialysis for kidney failure patient ..... we hv to see how long this can go on ..... american markets will go up but in much more muted way than several asian markets ...... so tomorrow will become crucial unless we hv a massive flare-up in american markets as well ..... but chances for that are rather low .....
so trade cautiously and book wherevr you see humongous profits ......
our straddles are going to bring windfall gains ..... remember that as well .....
archives of yahoo messenger - 5th september
5th september 2008
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 9:55:20 AM): good morning ! what shud i say ...... everything is working out as explained earlier ..... on tuesday some people were saying yr logic is impeccable but it was not yr day ...... but i never say anything for intraday ...... as long as things play out over a week or two- i am more than happy ..... nifty shud open about 80 points down and all puts recommended to buy yesterday shud make reasonable money ..... i am happy to say the least ...... try and buy aban 1round 2060/2080 if it is available around that rate .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 10:04:36 AM): no particular stock has massively cracked ..... it is a secular downswing of 2/3 % ...... i wl read it as sign of strength .... but i wl prefer to wait for another 10 / 15 mins to see if any cracks r opening in some stocks .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 10:14:20 AM): tech stocks ...... nasdaq is falling everyday ..... and most tech cos hv hedged full quarters earning at 41 rs a dollar ...... why r we rejoicing ...... i see a 7 to 10 % downside for the sector unless nifty is going to move up 8/10 % in next 2/3 weeks .......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 11:14:12 AM): NSG meet ...... i am getting a feeling that govt is in a mood to accept NSG waiver in whatever format it comes ..... unless it is absolutely damning ..... and then try and prove to the nation by interpreting every clause to our advantage ...... when u r in power .... only u r privy to all the information while opposition is only guessing and reacting to what is in public domain ...... so it is normally possible to brush aside some small unacceptable differences under the pretext of ambiguity etc ...... i wl now put that chances are 80/20 in favour of nsg waiver .... since we r ready to compromise ......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:07:07 PM): except india and USA - most other indices are either at 52 week lows or very close to that ....... i think this shud be kept in mind while taking any aggressive longs ..... i hope u hv seen shankar sharma's interview ... inspite of constant bullish prodding by udayan ..... he held his own and this is a must see interview ..... i think he spoke very well .... very balanced and never brought emotions ( they were visible on udayan's face - all the time ) ....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:51:31 PM): nifty .... we may go up till about 4364 or 4382 ... as ftse is getting closer to neutral zone and hangseng is also cutting losses .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:54:07 PM): nifty - my downside taget of 4328 was achived an there is a bounce ..... u may get a bounce upto levels as mentioned earlier ... if it crosses 4382 .... we will review .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:58:05 PM): steel stocks are going to be under the hammer now .... all US steel stocks also correcting heavily ....... we can see 7/8 % correction easily .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 1:39:36 PM): looks like 4382 is going to hold ..... ftse going down sharply .......... madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:35:19 PM): FTSE - 95 minus ..... this may be third day in a row when ftse wud hv lost over 100 points ......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:38:08 PM): in the morning i wrote about techs .... see infy / satyam and wipro ..... cheers .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:44:32 PM): market movement and stock price is a function of several known and unknown variables .... if we just start looking from one angle like inflation or crude etc, then people kep on wondering why market is going down ... atleast try to look at all known variables .... put values ... look at their interlinkages and co-relations .... then u may get a better picture .... inspite of that ... there will be ffect of a few unnownvariables ... but we cant do anything about that ..... if life was so simple ... like crude down then market up or inflation down then market up etc .... no body wud hv worked and just sat infront of a laptop and traded ..... isnt it ??????????????
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:58:05 PM): tata steel is really under hammer .... i said so in the morning .... chartically now a major support level is around 500 ... if it closes below 562 which looks likely .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:59:59 PM): look at hindalco / tisco / telco ..... all big deal makers ... all of them are in trouble .... i hope infy does not hv the same fate ...... although the deal is yet to go thru ......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:01:19 PM): how many of you remember ... the note i wrote after JLR deal .... are we becoming kabadi's of the world ????????
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:04:40 PM): look at bharat forge ... baba is sitting in the boardrooms all over the world .... but where is the stockprice .... it is one thing to do business in india ... when u can pay 200 dollars a month for labourers .... and the other part of the world where u hv to pay min 100 dollars a day ....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:21:39 PM): make straddles in nuclear deal related stocks ..... buy just out of the money puts and calls .... yesterday i was thinking the deal wl not go thru ..... but it seems our govt is reluctant to walk away from the table ..... so they wl take whatever is dished out .... in that case we hv to cover upside also ..... hence the straddles .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:27:37 PM): at NSG level ... everybody will be smart enough to draft something which can be read / interpreted in 3/4 different ways ..... that is why earlier we were insisting on 'clean' waiver ..... now since that becomes difficult to come, either we hv to walk away or accept with a slightly distorted waiver ..... anyway we r not going to test imdtly ... the govt at that time will face the consequences .... man-son team wl go in hisyory books ......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 9:55:20 AM): good morning ! what shud i say ...... everything is working out as explained earlier ..... on tuesday some people were saying yr logic is impeccable but it was not yr day ...... but i never say anything for intraday ...... as long as things play out over a week or two- i am more than happy ..... nifty shud open about 80 points down and all puts recommended to buy yesterday shud make reasonable money ..... i am happy to say the least ...... try and buy aban 1round 2060/2080 if it is available around that rate .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 10:04:36 AM): no particular stock has massively cracked ..... it is a secular downswing of 2/3 % ...... i wl read it as sign of strength .... but i wl prefer to wait for another 10 / 15 mins to see if any cracks r opening in some stocks .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 10:14:20 AM): tech stocks ...... nasdaq is falling everyday ..... and most tech cos hv hedged full quarters earning at 41 rs a dollar ...... why r we rejoicing ...... i see a 7 to 10 % downside for the sector unless nifty is going to move up 8/10 % in next 2/3 weeks .......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 11:14:12 AM): NSG meet ...... i am getting a feeling that govt is in a mood to accept NSG waiver in whatever format it comes ..... unless it is absolutely damning ..... and then try and prove to the nation by interpreting every clause to our advantage ...... when u r in power .... only u r privy to all the information while opposition is only guessing and reacting to what is in public domain ...... so it is normally possible to brush aside some small unacceptable differences under the pretext of ambiguity etc ...... i wl now put that chances are 80/20 in favour of nsg waiver .... since we r ready to compromise ......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:07:07 PM): except india and USA - most other indices are either at 52 week lows or very close to that ....... i think this shud be kept in mind while taking any aggressive longs ..... i hope u hv seen shankar sharma's interview ... inspite of constant bullish prodding by udayan ..... he held his own and this is a must see interview ..... i think he spoke very well .... very balanced and never brought emotions ( they were visible on udayan's face - all the time ) ....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:51:31 PM): nifty .... we may go up till about 4364 or 4382 ... as ftse is getting closer to neutral zone and hangseng is also cutting losses .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:54:07 PM): nifty - my downside taget of 4328 was achived an there is a bounce ..... u may get a bounce upto levels as mentioned earlier ... if it crosses 4382 .... we will review .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:58:05 PM): steel stocks are going to be under the hammer now .... all US steel stocks also correcting heavily ....... we can see 7/8 % correction easily .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 1:39:36 PM): looks like 4382 is going to hold ..... ftse going down sharply .......... madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:35:19 PM): FTSE - 95 minus ..... this may be third day in a row when ftse wud hv lost over 100 points ......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:38:08 PM): in the morning i wrote about techs .... see infy / satyam and wipro ..... cheers .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:44:32 PM): market movement and stock price is a function of several known and unknown variables .... if we just start looking from one angle like inflation or crude etc, then people kep on wondering why market is going down ... atleast try to look at all known variables .... put values ... look at their interlinkages and co-relations .... then u may get a better picture .... inspite of that ... there will be ffect of a few unnownvariables ... but we cant do anything about that ..... if life was so simple ... like crude down then market up or inflation down then market up etc .... no body wud hv worked and just sat infront of a laptop and traded ..... isnt it ??????????????
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:58:05 PM): tata steel is really under hammer .... i said so in the morning .... chartically now a major support level is around 500 ... if it closes below 562 which looks likely .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:59:59 PM): look at hindalco / tisco / telco ..... all big deal makers ... all of them are in trouble .... i hope infy does not hv the same fate ...... although the deal is yet to go thru ......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:01:19 PM): how many of you remember ... the note i wrote after JLR deal .... are we becoming kabadi's of the world ????????
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:04:40 PM): look at bharat forge ... baba is sitting in the boardrooms all over the world .... but where is the stockprice .... it is one thing to do business in india ... when u can pay 200 dollars a month for labourers .... and the other part of the world where u hv to pay min 100 dollars a day ....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:21:39 PM): make straddles in nuclear deal related stocks ..... buy just out of the money puts and calls .... yesterday i was thinking the deal wl not go thru ..... but it seems our govt is reluctant to walk away from the table ..... so they wl take whatever is dished out .... in that case we hv to cover upside also ..... hence the straddles .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:27:37 PM): at NSG level ... everybody will be smart enough to draft something which can be read / interpreted in 3/4 different ways ..... that is why earlier we were insisting on 'clean' waiver ..... now since that becomes difficult to come, either we hv to walk away or accept with a slightly distorted waiver ..... anyway we r not going to test imdtly ... the govt at that time will face the consequences .... man-son team wl go in hisyory books ......
Friday, September 5, 2008
yahoo messenger archive - 4th september
4th september 2008
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 9:50:32 AM): good morning ! i dont want to repeat what i said on monday morning - opening message ..... we r an immature market .... thats about all ...... read my blog http://sumamurauvach.blogspot.com/ u can also read my mondays comments over there ..... if u wish to read .....
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 9:53:04 AM): NSG meet .... read following articles ..... http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/02/AR2008090202733.html http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20080063976 http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/WireStory?id=5685057&page=1
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 10:17:35 AM): call premiums on many stocks hv collapsed ..... that means market is not looking at any upside imdtly .....
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 10:20:16 AM): reliance 2250 call is trading lower than monday .... when spot was around same level ...... we r at the begining of fao contract ... so it is just change of sentiment .... no timevalue loss etc .......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 10:39:38 AM): change / reduction in crude futures hv direct bearing on inflation in the western world incl japan ..... where the consumers are paying cost related pricing for petroproducts ..... we r insulated economy where the price of petroproducts is fixed by govt ..... we had no reason to react so vigorously as we did on tuesday ..... now that gain is getting liquidated ...... that is why i call ours is an immature market ......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 10:49:24 AM): banks trying to stage a comeback ....... last 2 days a grapevine campaign is on ..... subbu is chiddus bunny ..... so all banking reforms will be now pushed thru quickly ..... many times bunny's hv shown there true colours and teeth .... when they get into that constitutional seat of power and then they work with their own conviction ...... when dr reddy took over from mr jalan, he was also considered as a pro finmin person but later on he showed that he was an upright man ..... i think some profits shud be taken from banking stocks ..... according to me ..... NSG is a very big trigger which is being underplayed ........
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 12:03:37 PM): shanghai / hangseng looking better ..... we shud hv some mild upside .......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 12:33:35 PM): ftse opened just 12 points plus ...... on the back of huge 121 point fall yesterday .... it was expected to open a bit higher ... let us watch for few mins for possible recovery ......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 12:38:02 PM): yes .... now ftse 36 points up .... that is better ......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 12:59:12 PM): nifty is weakening but go short with todays high as sl only when 4465 is broken on spot ......madhav ranade (9/4/2008 12:59:44 PM): nifty is weakening but go short with todays high as sl only when 4465 is broken on spot ......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 1:20:12 PM): hangseng is again minus 200 from just minus 50 ......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 1:23:08 PM): our nifty spot long level is 4476 .... on tuesday in euphoria it was taken out ..... but today it has prevailed .... so far ....
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 1:28:31 PM): nifty - short from 4465 .... already 35 points in the kity .... in just half an hour .......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 1:34:26 PM): infact i used to like mr jalan .... who was very sophisticated ..... so much that at first i use to call dr reddy as a 'toad' ..... but later on, i think he took all the pressure put on him by finmin people in his stride ...... i think he has done a remarkable job in his tenure and highest regards are due to him ..... cheers ......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 1:34:56 PM): infact i used to like mr jalan .... who was very sophisticated ..... so much that at first i use to call dr reddy as a 'toad' ..... but later on, i think he took all the pressure put on him by finmin people in his stride ...... i think he has done a remarkable job in his tenure and highest regards are due to him ..... cheers ......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 1:37:58 PM): aban is now around 2185 ...... now we shud buy it on correction ..... it wl happen .... i think u wl get it around 2050/2080 zone .....
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 1:40:33 PM): nifty short posn created below 4465 can be exited .... if still on ......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 2:28:06 PM): we shud hv some correction setting in nifty spot ..... go short below 4445 with sl of 4465 .......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 3:09:17 PM): i feel nifty will slip about 20 points before close .... effectively testing days low ......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 9:50:32 AM): good morning ! i dont want to repeat what i said on monday morning - opening message ..... we r an immature market .... thats about all ...... read my blog http://sumamurauvach.blogspot.com/ u can also read my mondays comments over there ..... if u wish to read .....
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 9:53:04 AM): NSG meet .... read following articles ..... http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/02/AR2008090202733.html http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20080063976 http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/WireStory?id=5685057&page=1
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 10:17:35 AM): call premiums on many stocks hv collapsed ..... that means market is not looking at any upside imdtly .....
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 10:20:16 AM): reliance 2250 call is trading lower than monday .... when spot was around same level ...... we r at the begining of fao contract ... so it is just change of sentiment .... no timevalue loss etc .......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 10:39:38 AM): change / reduction in crude futures hv direct bearing on inflation in the western world incl japan ..... where the consumers are paying cost related pricing for petroproducts ..... we r insulated economy where the price of petroproducts is fixed by govt ..... we had no reason to react so vigorously as we did on tuesday ..... now that gain is getting liquidated ...... that is why i call ours is an immature market ......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 10:49:24 AM): banks trying to stage a comeback ....... last 2 days a grapevine campaign is on ..... subbu is chiddus bunny ..... so all banking reforms will be now pushed thru quickly ..... many times bunny's hv shown there true colours and teeth .... when they get into that constitutional seat of power and then they work with their own conviction ...... when dr reddy took over from mr jalan, he was also considered as a pro finmin person but later on he showed that he was an upright man ..... i think some profits shud be taken from banking stocks ..... according to me ..... NSG is a very big trigger which is being underplayed ........
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 12:03:37 PM): shanghai / hangseng looking better ..... we shud hv some mild upside .......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 12:33:35 PM): ftse opened just 12 points plus ...... on the back of huge 121 point fall yesterday .... it was expected to open a bit higher ... let us watch for few mins for possible recovery ......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 12:38:02 PM): yes .... now ftse 36 points up .... that is better ......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 12:59:12 PM): nifty is weakening but go short with todays high as sl only when 4465 is broken on spot ......madhav ranade (9/4/2008 12:59:44 PM): nifty is weakening but go short with todays high as sl only when 4465 is broken on spot ......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 1:20:12 PM): hangseng is again minus 200 from just minus 50 ......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 1:23:08 PM): our nifty spot long level is 4476 .... on tuesday in euphoria it was taken out ..... but today it has prevailed .... so far ....
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 1:28:31 PM): nifty - short from 4465 .... already 35 points in the kity .... in just half an hour .......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 1:34:26 PM): infact i used to like mr jalan .... who was very sophisticated ..... so much that at first i use to call dr reddy as a 'toad' ..... but later on, i think he took all the pressure put on him by finmin people in his stride ...... i think he has done a remarkable job in his tenure and highest regards are due to him ..... cheers ......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 1:34:56 PM): infact i used to like mr jalan .... who was very sophisticated ..... so much that at first i use to call dr reddy as a 'toad' ..... but later on, i think he took all the pressure put on him by finmin people in his stride ...... i think he has done a remarkable job in his tenure and highest regards are due to him ..... cheers ......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 1:37:58 PM): aban is now around 2185 ...... now we shud buy it on correction ..... it wl happen .... i think u wl get it around 2050/2080 zone .....
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 1:40:33 PM): nifty short posn created below 4465 can be exited .... if still on ......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 2:28:06 PM): we shud hv some correction setting in nifty spot ..... go short below 4445 with sl of 4465 .......
madhav ranade (9/4/2008 3:09:17 PM): i feel nifty will slip about 20 points before close .... effectively testing days low ......
Thursday, September 4, 2008
outcome of NSG meet .....
according to me, the outcome of NSG meet is a bigger trigger than crude slipping below 110 ...... but our operators hv a mind of their own and there are millions of gullible sheep to follow ..... so why not lead them to ....... u know where .......
the expose of democratic senator about a 9 month old letter is more damaging politically .... it may alienate a few allies .... who hv been closer to left in the past ..... as the credibility of PM as a statesman goes down a few notches .......
man-son team is looking like a toddler in front of bush / condelezza team as far as hard negotiations are concerned ...... in fact i wl say that sonia is getting the dose of her own medicine .... the way the congress high-command is used to dealing with state satraps .....
has uncle sam already started treating us as just another federal state ?????? this is a moot point to be answered ....
the expose of democratic senator about a 9 month old letter is more damaging politically .... it may alienate a few allies .... who hv been closer to left in the past ..... as the credibility of PM as a statesman goes down a few notches .......
man-son team is looking like a toddler in front of bush / condelezza team as far as hard negotiations are concerned ...... in fact i wl say that sonia is getting the dose of her own medicine .... the way the congress high-command is used to dealing with state satraps .....
has uncle sam already started treating us as just another federal state ?????? this is a moot point to be answered ....
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
pl find below last 3 days archives
2nd september
madhav ranade (9/2/2008 10:49:43 AM): good morning ! internet problem / power problem ..... so logging on late ..... from today pune will have 6 hrs power cut ..... same in thane / mulund / new bombay ....... industry will hv 34 to 42 hrs power cut ....... this is september .... monsoon season ..... we can imagine shape of things to come ...... capital goods demand - in and around pune ..... which is the best industrialised sector of india ..... even better than gurgaon / faridabad .......is dwindling ...... my friends in machinetool industry are twiddling their thumbs for last 8 / 10 weeks as simply no fresh demand is coming up ..... today only handful of banking stocks and ongc is holding market up ...... as long as reliance is not participating in the rally ..... it wl fizzle out no matter what CNBC anchors may say .
madhav ranade (9/2/2008 10:55:01 AM): CNBC anchors are always flanked by crony analysts .... some of thm hv split tongues ...... who advise short to their paid clients and indicate higher targets on cnbc ..... they are getting away with all these slimy acts ....
madhav ranade (9/2/2008 3:11:32 PM): NSG meet related euphoria is driving again same group of stocks led by ntpc / bhel / lt etc ...... but nothing has changed at ground zero ...... so buy puts and relax ...... may be - and there is 90 % chance that u wl hv windfall gains .........
madhav ranade (9/2/2008 3:15:04 PM): see ntpc is already cracking .......
1st september
madhav ranade (9/1/2008 9:52:50 AM): good morning ! i was away on friday ...... rally ..... as usual ..... was overdone and will get corrected or sold into today ......usual suspects will take a knock ..... that too as usual ..... our market is not a matured market for sure ...... gets excited and then goes into high plitude vibrations ..... this happens due to abnormal level of presense of operators ..... funds normally take a backseat and let the market swing to operators tunes ..... whether they do it because of apathy or because fund managers are hand in glove with operators ..... is a question which only sebi can investigate and answer ........
madhav ranade (9/1/2008 9:54:18 AM): paid members will get september trading levels in a few mins ..... this time i hv covered some world indices / commodities as well .......madhav ranade (9/1/2008 10:43:55 AM): watch reliance 2250 call ...........
madhav ranade (9/1/2008 10:55:01 AM): watch rpl 160 or 170 call ......
madhav ranade (9/1/2008 11:42:25 AM): RCOM - substantial put writing has happened at 380 level ...... if this level breaks ...... there may be considerable downside ....... it seems that the stock is in a bottomless pit .......... and divergence in bharti and rcom is becoming too much .... it seems the big brother is ready to deliver knock-out punch ..... i wl recommend exiting longs from all adag stocks ..... the signals are ominous .....madhav ranade (9/1/2008 12:34:06 PM): ftse is 38 points minus ......
madhav ranade (9/1/2008 12:45:56 PM): US markets are closed today and we r closed on wednesday..... that means tomorrow markets will be anxious and posns will be cut by end of the day .......... today there is no fear of US backlash so posns wl be carried over ..... inspite of this technical reason, market is showing above normal weakness which gives me an impression of the soft underbelly of this market ........... it seems a foregone conclusion for many that we r gong to break below 4200 and we r waiting for some reason to do so ......
madhav ranade (9/1/2008 12:54:25 PM): gustav is category 3 hurricane ..... may build into category 4 ..... but catrina was category 5 and much stronger ...... 2 yrs ago, crude was not as jittery as it is today and many americans are already talking of gas at 5 dollars a gallon in next couple of days ..... crude may not rise as much as gas pricing wl be impacted my regional imbalances in gasoline inventory levels due to shutdown of refineries ...... after catrins there was a 30/40 % bump-up in gas prices in many southern states for next 2/3 weeks .....
madhav ranade (9/1/2008 1:14:41 PM): sell sugar stocks - particularly all UP mills ..... renuka / balrampur / bajaj hondustan / upper ganges ........
madhav ranade (9/1/2008 1:23:16 PM): LT - record date fixed as 3rd oct ..... for bonus ......
madhav ranade (9/1/2008 3:04:18 PM): US is closed today ...... CAT is away so mice will play .............
28th august
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 9:48:48 AM): good morning ! inflation is going to weigh heavily on the market ..... be cautious ..... any way today is f&o expiry day and heavy trading is not advisable ........madhav ranade (8/28/2008 10:00:05 AM): i will be posting archives of my yahoo messenger messages on this blogspot ---- pl hv a look ..... http://sumamurauvach.blogspot.com/
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 10:42:14 AM): NTPC ..... i expect NTPC to close below 170 ..... one can buy NTPC 170 put around 1 rupee ...... bet worth taking ........
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 10:53:51 AM): SUZLON - many brokerages hv buy call on suzlon with fantastic targets ...... they wl support the stock at every level .... despite that the stock is testing levels closer to 200 .... i hv given buy level between 160 to 200 ..... so start buying suzlon at cmp - just 20 % - and add 20 % at every 10 rupee dip .... in between if u get a bounce to 230/240 level .... exit and buy again close to 200 ......
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 10:57:54 AM): this buying in stages was suggested for RPOWER from 170 to 130 and it gave very good results as we were able to unload everything around 175 / 180 and again we r in buying mode ....... these are fundamentally overpriced but operator backed stocks so they will give these opporunities periodically as long as we r in bear market ......
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 11:28:17 AM): aban - 2000 is a good support but that may not sustain ..... if it fails then 1800/200 can be a good buying zone ..... otherwise, buy closer to 2000 after the support has survived for some time .......
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 11:34:17 AM): ntpc - sep fut is at 2 rs discount to aug fut ...... is there a big dividend in the stock ??????
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 2:53:24 PM): i hv a feeling that inflation figure wl come closer to 13 % ..... consensus fig is 12.83 % ........ we may hv RBI intervention tomorrow inview of money that they hv pumped over last 3/4 days to stabilise rupee ......
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 3:05:09 PM): bulls hv wilted under bear onslought in last half an hour ........... some small recovery may be still possible but round is lost to bears squarely .............madhav ranade (8/28/2008 3:23:47 PM): MRPL is down nearly 23 % from peak value ...... the counter shud be watched carefully .......... last qtr results were good ..... this qtr performance will depend on how much inventory loss is booked .............
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 3:26:21 PM): RIL - many analysts were claiming that co had purposely not booked inventory gains last qtr ..... they wl be used as a cushion in the coming qtrs .......... now they wl hv a inventory carrying loss .... so that understated profit wl automatically get adjusted .......... cushion is goneeeeeeeee .........
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 3:28:17 PM): aban counter shud be watched closely now ...... if it breaks 2000 convincingly ...... we r looking at further 10 % downside ............
2nd september
madhav ranade (9/2/2008 10:49:43 AM): good morning ! internet problem / power problem ..... so logging on late ..... from today pune will have 6 hrs power cut ..... same in thane / mulund / new bombay ....... industry will hv 34 to 42 hrs power cut ....... this is september .... monsoon season ..... we can imagine shape of things to come ...... capital goods demand - in and around pune ..... which is the best industrialised sector of india ..... even better than gurgaon / faridabad .......is dwindling ...... my friends in machinetool industry are twiddling their thumbs for last 8 / 10 weeks as simply no fresh demand is coming up ..... today only handful of banking stocks and ongc is holding market up ...... as long as reliance is not participating in the rally ..... it wl fizzle out no matter what CNBC anchors may say .
madhav ranade (9/2/2008 10:55:01 AM): CNBC anchors are always flanked by crony analysts .... some of thm hv split tongues ...... who advise short to their paid clients and indicate higher targets on cnbc ..... they are getting away with all these slimy acts ....
madhav ranade (9/2/2008 3:11:32 PM): NSG meet related euphoria is driving again same group of stocks led by ntpc / bhel / lt etc ...... but nothing has changed at ground zero ...... so buy puts and relax ...... may be - and there is 90 % chance that u wl hv windfall gains .........
madhav ranade (9/2/2008 3:15:04 PM): see ntpc is already cracking .......
1st september
madhav ranade (9/1/2008 9:52:50 AM): good morning ! i was away on friday ...... rally ..... as usual ..... was overdone and will get corrected or sold into today ......usual suspects will take a knock ..... that too as usual ..... our market is not a matured market for sure ...... gets excited and then goes into high plitude vibrations ..... this happens due to abnormal level of presense of operators ..... funds normally take a backseat and let the market swing to operators tunes ..... whether they do it because of apathy or because fund managers are hand in glove with operators ..... is a question which only sebi can investigate and answer ........
madhav ranade (9/1/2008 9:54:18 AM): paid members will get september trading levels in a few mins ..... this time i hv covered some world indices / commodities as well .......madhav ranade (9/1/2008 10:43:55 AM): watch reliance 2250 call ...........
madhav ranade (9/1/2008 10:55:01 AM): watch rpl 160 or 170 call ......
madhav ranade (9/1/2008 11:42:25 AM): RCOM - substantial put writing has happened at 380 level ...... if this level breaks ...... there may be considerable downside ....... it seems that the stock is in a bottomless pit .......... and divergence in bharti and rcom is becoming too much .... it seems the big brother is ready to deliver knock-out punch ..... i wl recommend exiting longs from all adag stocks ..... the signals are ominous .....madhav ranade (9/1/2008 12:34:06 PM): ftse is 38 points minus ......
madhav ranade (9/1/2008 12:45:56 PM): US markets are closed today and we r closed on wednesday..... that means tomorrow markets will be anxious and posns will be cut by end of the day .......... today there is no fear of US backlash so posns wl be carried over ..... inspite of this technical reason, market is showing above normal weakness which gives me an impression of the soft underbelly of this market ........... it seems a foregone conclusion for many that we r gong to break below 4200 and we r waiting for some reason to do so ......
madhav ranade (9/1/2008 12:54:25 PM): gustav is category 3 hurricane ..... may build into category 4 ..... but catrina was category 5 and much stronger ...... 2 yrs ago, crude was not as jittery as it is today and many americans are already talking of gas at 5 dollars a gallon in next couple of days ..... crude may not rise as much as gas pricing wl be impacted my regional imbalances in gasoline inventory levels due to shutdown of refineries ...... after catrins there was a 30/40 % bump-up in gas prices in many southern states for next 2/3 weeks .....
madhav ranade (9/1/2008 1:14:41 PM): sell sugar stocks - particularly all UP mills ..... renuka / balrampur / bajaj hondustan / upper ganges ........
madhav ranade (9/1/2008 1:23:16 PM): LT - record date fixed as 3rd oct ..... for bonus ......
madhav ranade (9/1/2008 3:04:18 PM): US is closed today ...... CAT is away so mice will play .............
28th august
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 9:48:48 AM): good morning ! inflation is going to weigh heavily on the market ..... be cautious ..... any way today is f&o expiry day and heavy trading is not advisable ........madhav ranade (8/28/2008 10:00:05 AM): i will be posting archives of my yahoo messenger messages on this blogspot ---- pl hv a look ..... http://sumamurauvach.blogspot.com/
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 10:42:14 AM): NTPC ..... i expect NTPC to close below 170 ..... one can buy NTPC 170 put around 1 rupee ...... bet worth taking ........
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 10:53:51 AM): SUZLON - many brokerages hv buy call on suzlon with fantastic targets ...... they wl support the stock at every level .... despite that the stock is testing levels closer to 200 .... i hv given buy level between 160 to 200 ..... so start buying suzlon at cmp - just 20 % - and add 20 % at every 10 rupee dip .... in between if u get a bounce to 230/240 level .... exit and buy again close to 200 ......
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 10:57:54 AM): this buying in stages was suggested for RPOWER from 170 to 130 and it gave very good results as we were able to unload everything around 175 / 180 and again we r in buying mode ....... these are fundamentally overpriced but operator backed stocks so they will give these opporunities periodically as long as we r in bear market ......
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 11:28:17 AM): aban - 2000 is a good support but that may not sustain ..... if it fails then 1800/200 can be a good buying zone ..... otherwise, buy closer to 2000 after the support has survived for some time .......
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 11:34:17 AM): ntpc - sep fut is at 2 rs discount to aug fut ...... is there a big dividend in the stock ??????
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 2:53:24 PM): i hv a feeling that inflation figure wl come closer to 13 % ..... consensus fig is 12.83 % ........ we may hv RBI intervention tomorrow inview of money that they hv pumped over last 3/4 days to stabilise rupee ......
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 3:05:09 PM): bulls hv wilted under bear onslought in last half an hour ........... some small recovery may be still possible but round is lost to bears squarely .............madhav ranade (8/28/2008 3:23:47 PM): MRPL is down nearly 23 % from peak value ...... the counter shud be watched carefully .......... last qtr results were good ..... this qtr performance will depend on how much inventory loss is booked .............
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 3:26:21 PM): RIL - many analysts were claiming that co had purposely not booked inventory gains last qtr ..... they wl be used as a cushion in the coming qtrs .......... now they wl hv a inventory carrying loss .... so that understated profit wl automatically get adjusted .......... cushion is goneeeeeeeee .........
madhav ranade (8/28/2008 3:28:17 PM): aban counter shud be watched closely now ...... if it breaks 2000 convincingly ...... we r looking at further 10 % downside ............
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