Tuesday, November 13, 2007

current global scenario

nasdaq composit has closed below 200 day ema yesterday. s&p 500 and dow is already below that crucial level. all is not well with the american equity markets.

japan is in a confirmed long term downtrend and FTSE is close to that alongwith american markets.

i think these are the most important markets and when they are showing signs of weakness we can only show sporadic show of strength - as our operators have shown yesterday on the back of FM's comments that no further means of capital control will be used in near future.

why i am saying operators is because again only the smaller F&O stocks have shown the glitter. largecaps did not participate except the likes of SBI / ICICI. but those will relent today as ADRs of ICICI had a dismal show.

i still feel that it is prudent to take profit even at this level- if u hv not done earlier - and wait for opportune moment to re-enter. some market analysts are calling every dip as a buying opportunity but these are turncoats and same people will tell u that market is headed for 5000 level so take short positions.

i wl say that there is a 90 % chance that the market will go down from here than move up so the odds are in favour of booking profit - even if you do not hv courage to go short. some puts like 5500 nifty shud be considered to protect your portfolio.

i will comment about commodities separately.

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