archives of yahoo messenger 1st / 7th oct 2008


madhav ranade (10/7/2008 9:52:37 AM): good morning ! i had mentioned yesterday that i see 3550/3700 as a major support zone ...... and it will be not so easy to break that ..... so, we hv some announcements like p notes / crr and we wl se a bounce today ...... i had also mentioned that get into some stocks where u see value .... i hope u hv bought something ..... there is no point in simply sitting on sidelines ......

madhav ranade (10/7/2008 1:07:38 PM): looks like TATACHEM is taking a double knock ..... all fertiliser stocks hv collapsed and collapse of tata stocks are reflecting on tatachem treasury holding value also ..... but still at this price it looks extremely attractive ............ 175 / 190 looks a good support zone ..... u can buy the stock from short as well as medium term perspective .....

madhav ranade (10/7/2008 1:50:15 PM): the way the markets are falling all over the world ..... it looks like that we were better off without this FII menace ..... atleast we knew our jokers and we knew rules of the game ...... may be that is what bhave meant when he said we need to restructure the whole FII regime ...... the picture worldwide is looking extremely grim ...... and MF fund investors shud seriously start thinking taking money out of equity schemes and shift to debt ..... this is a must to protect yr gains .... atleast pull out 40/50 % of the amount ..... it is better to be safe than sorry .............. even if u hv no profits in MFs, even capital preservation is equally important ...... so pull out even if u r making losses ...... cances yr ECS mandates for SIPs also ...... there is no point throwing good money behind bad money ...... our economy may be in good shape but without FII money what valuations yr stocks can get ............... think like that ...... if FIIs pull out another 5 billion USD, we wl go down by 25/30 % .... even from these levels ..... and then all yr dreams built on prospects of super equity gains will evaporate in thin air ......i am not painting a grim scenario for the sake of it but just sharing my humble thoughts .... which i know are 180 degree opposit to fund managers who just dont want u to sell ....... when there is delivery based selling .... banning shorts also does not work ..... look at US / UK ...... for me 3550 is an important level ... and may be it wl be protected on closing basis ..... but how long ..... and i am making u think as i know that such important decisions can not be taken on spur of the moment ..... so think, think hard and come to a conclusion before the weak is out ...... god bless you .......

madhav ranade (10/7/2008 2:32:39 PM): on all parameters a certain stock may look good ...... but there has to be a buyer ..... look at it like this a new painter with skills 10 times better than MF hussein starts painting ..... he expects to fetch a better price than hussein since his paintings are inherently better ...... and the king of that state has agreed to buy whatever he paints at some good value ..... but to his misfortune, for next two years there is draught in the state and the king has no money to buy the paintings ..... then what happens ..... an he realise what is due to him ..... and how does he survive in the intervening period ..... fiis paid astronomical prices for yr stocks .... but now it is a question of their survival ..... and they r dumping at throw away price ...... WHO CAN BUY now .... and absorb the qty that they r dumping ...... so better exit and move to debt funds or to bank FDs and wait patiently ......

madhav ranade (10/6/2008 9:39:43 AM): good morning ! now we hv to look at 3550/3700 which is very very important support zone ..... i dont think we r going to break that zone that easily ...... but god forbid, if that happens ...... we are opening ourselves to 1000 nifty points downside risk in the months to come ...... i know - nobody likes to hear this ..... but it is entirely possible ....... keep that in mind .... INSPITE OF WHAT WE LIKE TO HEAR, WE MUST LEARN TO FACTOR IN THE POSSIBILE DANGERS ...... OFCOURSE, ALL THIS IS SUBJECT TO 3550 BEING BROKEN ..... WHICH IS STILL AWAY .....

madhav ranade (10/6/2008 1:11:17 PM): as i said in the morning, i dont expect that 3550/3700 zone wl be broken so easily ...... but that does not mean this is a call to go long ...... all the way ..... some good stocks hv been battered out of shape ..... hv a look at those stocks and u may enter those and play for a bit of a bounce ..... but make sure u enter in extreme low p/e .... and good stocks ..... p/es btween 7 and 10 preferred ....... with a steady / good performance

madhav ranade (10/6/2008 1:27:33 PM): i read over the weekend that obama's future is linked to crude prices ... and both china and saudi ..... big investors in US gilts ...... want republican to win ..... hence crude wl remain subdued till 4th nov ... election day ..... china is supressing crude demand and saudi is unofficially pumping much more than what they r allowed by OPEC ...... winter wl start after 4th nov and no one wl be interested in suppressing crude ..... so crude wl zoom again .......


madhav ranade (10/3/2008 9:46:39 AM): good morning ! nuclear deal clearance in the senate is a non event. it is like clearing a bill in rajyasabha after already being cleared in loksabha. so dont get swayed by this newsbit which is flashing on frontpages of all newspapers. as regard to bailout package, the developments arereally intriguing. all newswires reports are suggesting that the bill is likely to be passed in congress. inspite of that dow sold off yesterday in abig way ..... may be wallstreet does not like a tweaked version ..... sgx is not giving any clue today ..... i feel we shud open about 40/50 points negative and drift to about 100 nifty points during day .... dpending on how dow futs behave .......

madhav ranade (10/3/2008 10:45:05 AM): US public mood is so bad as regards to bailout package is concerned that voters are calling lawmakers and stating that after spending 700 billion this year, they r sure that next year package will be a trillion - 1000 billion dollars .... that effectively sums up and explains why dow tanked yesterday ......

madhav ranade (10/3/2008 12:56:23 PM): now people r wondering whether 3717 bottom wl hold ...... i had said that day itself that people wasting time is predicting short term / midterm bottoms ...... unnecessary blah blah on channels ... any way they hv nothing else to say .....


madhav ranade (10/1/2008 9:49:43 AM): good morning ! yesterdays pullback was on the back of dow futs and 'gentle' persuation of govt owned DIIs by delhi ..... then the result is obvious ..... it is always easy to buy with someone eles money ..... isnt it ?????? the bailout bill is being tabled in senate today evening at 7.30 us time ...... some rate cuts and few other things like increased deposit limit is being added ..... these democrats dislike ..... moreover some congressmaen are annoyed that senate is taking lead and trying to force congress's hand .....it is like rajyasabha forcing losabha ..... there r some more distubing developments .... i wl write a few mins later .......
madhav ranade (10/1/2008 10:04:12 AM): US problems ...... what is more damaging some change in accounting regulations sought by some congressmen .... they want SEC to tweak the rules so that banks dont hv to take mark to market losses ..... this is like the bonds treated by our banks which r HTM - held till maturity - catagory ..... holding US treasury bills like HTM is one thing and taking same stand on mortgage based securities is entirely another kettle of fish ..... just imagine some of these can fetch u not even 20 cents to a dollar now ...... ex goldman sachs CEO and current treasury secretary paulsen wl be rubbing his hands in glee ..... if this is passedby sec .... change in accounting .... then he can buy all the bad debts at face value and all wallstreet firms and all banks wl make windfall gains at the cost of tax payers ...... moreover this wl be a very damaging precedent for the world economies ..... SEC is reluctant but finally u never know what kind of pressures the govt and the lawmakers can put on these so called 'independent' regulators ...... watch out .......

madhav ranade (10/1/2008 11:01:22 AM): govt intervention in RIL / RNRL case ...... this i interpret as negative to both the parties ...... rnrl interests are clearly undermined and as usual market wl take note when some white sinned brokerage wl say that ..... as far as RIL is concerned, it takes away complete pricing power from the company ...... this has to be a major negative factor .... particularly with amarsingh hand dominant in the current govt set-up ...... pl take yr own call on both the stocks ......