archives of important messages posted from 19th / 30th september 2008
madhav ranade (9/30/2008 9:54:19 AM): good morning ! i expect a 3/max 4 % lower opening .... anything more will be overreaction .... shorts are banned virtually all over asia and that is why the fall shud be muted ..... buy value stocks like siemens / lt / bharti / mrpl / tatachem etc at lows or near lows ..... dont chase momentum ...... best of luck ......
madhav ranade (9/30/2008 12:24:58 PM): did anyone hear mecklai jamal about rupee movement prediction ..... he had guts to say that i dont know and anyone who is trying to predict is bluffing ..... we r in a similar flux in stockmarket as well .... but except shankar sharma and damni ... all are paying only lip service by saying what masses like to hear ..... these r turncoats and we shud keep away from them .... weathercock is more stable than these guys ........
madhav ranade (9/30/2008 3:23:01 PM): i am just coming online ..... i presume the market is moving up in the hope of 0.5 % rate cut ...... the moot point is how it wl help our market ...... in the past, the rate cut means the money wl flow out of US ..... looking for better bargains .... now the situation is that all FIIs are struggling to make two ends meet ..... they do not hv any surplus which wl flow to EMs ..... any way, market is rejoicing the possibility .... we wl get ready with our view and buy puts ..... if there is no rate cut, themarkets may tank tomorrow, when we wl reap the harvest ..... if there is a rate cut, the white skin people wl tell the bulls, sorry we hv no money to put in india .... may be they wl tell 2 days later .... we wl hv to wait that long ....... what we r risking is max 20/30 rs ....
madhav ranade (9/30/2008 4:10:02 PM): US lawmakers ..... equivalent to our parliament / assembly members ..... hv shown that they listen to the voters voice ..... that is why they refused to sanction the bailout package at taxpayers expense ... when we wl hv such a day .... when we wl hv such sensitive and sensible lawmakers ..... that day will be a soniyacha diwas ... a golden day in our polity ......
madhav ranade (9/26/2008 9:51:09 AM): good morning ! sgx is indicating negative opening but i feel we r going to hv moderately positive opening as bulls wud like to play on inflation news ...... they wl wait for any further developments on US front about the bailout package .... later in the day ....
madhav ranade (9/29/2008 9:51:53 AM): good morning ! the contours of bailout package hv changed substantially ...... this has not enthused the asian markets at all ..... they hv been neutral with slightly negative bias ...... we also may start the same way and drift lower ......
madhav ranade (9/29/2008 9:56:03 AM): after wasington mutual, now the focus is on wachovia ... and citi is named as a possible suitor ....... which itself is leveraged 40 plus times .... so on the brink .....
madhav ranade (9/26/2008 10:15:16 AM): i had expected a much better showing from bulls but what we r seeing is a reaction in line with dow futures .... again it becomes clear who is calling the shots .....
madhav ranade (9/26/2008 2:51:05 PM): today, i am getting a feeling that bears r not pressing ..... aware that there may be a bailout package announcement over the weekend ...... but market is till drifting as bulls r not willing to take charge ...... they made tonnes and tonnes of money in last 4 yrs ..... so i dont think they r lacking in resources ..... but may be the spirit is not willing ....
madhav ranade (9/25/2008 9:50:58 AM): good morning ! as expected, it is turning out to be an uneventful week .... today we may hv some additional volatility induced by rxpiry considerations .... but thtas about all ....
madhav ranade (9/25/2008 3:21:46 PM): market does not seem to hv any strength or momentum ..... in table tennis terms ......u r getting a absolute dead ball ... with no spin on it .... it becomes very difficult to hit that ball although it may look very easy ...... it just hangs in the air ......
madhav ranade (9/24/2008 10:26:36 AM): very hard fought debate is going on hawkish US lawmakers from both parties and BUSH administration about the bailout package ..... and the contours of the package are changing every hour ..... after buffet and mitsubishi hv taken stake in goldman and morgan respectively, there are people in US who r doubting whether the bailout package is really reqd ....... we hv to wait and watch what finally comes out on friday ...... as usual it wl hv huge ramifications ..... and amplified one ..... on all asian markets including india .....
madhav ranade (9/24/2008 9:49:00 AM): good morning ! warren buffet is taking stake in goldman and that has set dow futs on fire ...... that is why asian markets are showing a moderate bounce ..... this will be reflected on our markets as well..... we will dance to US tunes .... even to future tunes ......
madhav ranade (9/24/2008 10:21:28 AM): i dont like to comment on individuals .... but this fellow PN VIJAY ..... i dont know how many times in last 7/8 months he has said that indian market is over the 'humps' and we r still making lowere lows and lower highs ...... i dont know why such speakers are invited who cant even change the phrases over a period of time ...... simply ridiculous .......
madhav ranade (9/23/2008 9:48:15 AM): good morning ! so, euphoria is over ..... it seems like that ..... on friday when i was asking to cut naked longs, there were many - who were overly bullish - sort of chuckling in their cheeks ...... but as i said time and again - i prefer to err on the side of caution because .... CAPITAL NEEDS TO BE RESPECTED AND PRESERVED infact i had suggested to buy 4100 puts ... and it wud give u decent returns today ....
madhav ranade (9/22/2008 9:52:53 AM): good morning ! a moderately positive opening ..... more because of inertia than anything else ..... some profit taking expected ...... generally this week will be an uneventful week from now on unless some dramatic development happens in US .....madhav ranade (9/22/2008 9:56:15 AM): goldman and morgan stanley hv asked for change in status from IBANK to bank holding cos and the requst is granted ..... that means now there is no large IBANK on wall street .... now both goldman and morgan wl follow normal banking regulations ... they wl now come under pirview of FED .... earlier they were under SEC
madhav ranade (9/22/2008 3:20:20 PM): BAILOUT package ..... reverse auction likely to be used ..... packets of 10 billion dollar will be auctioned at a time ...... average realisation likely to be in the range of 50 to 65 cents out of a dollar ...... so u can imagine the amount of losses that wl be taken on books ... these wl be one time losses .... it is expected that some balancesheets wl get completely wiped out if they wl book these losses .... so those entities may prefer to continue as it is ..... that is also a possibility ...... all above is still speculative since no one knows finally what wl be cleared by congress ......
madhav ranade (9/19/2008 9:53:45 AM): good morning ! will be infact a great morning .... i wl not be surprised to see even 4325/4340 levels on nifty spot ..... sometime during the day .... remember we r an immature market and overdo things both ways ..... i will still hold back any long commitments till we see a definite announcement by US govt ..... i dont mind missing 50/100 points on nifty because if nothing concrete happens we can might as well fall like a stone .......
madhav ranade (9/19/2008 10:01:51 AM): i am disappointed with the opening to say the least ..... inspite of projection of strength in the market ... from everyone who came on tv channels today .... the market is subdued ... and that is intriguing ...... i think FIIs wl take opportunity to press fresh shorts since market is not showing strength as expected ... let us wait and watch
madhav ranade (9/19/2008 10:39:41 AM): short sales banned in US and UK ( only financial stocks ) ..... this means many hedge funds will hv to be wound up ... in short now the govt wants ' long only ' funds to operate which is entirely absurd ..... RTC kind of entity will mean that all profits have been privatised and all losses ... which r happening now .... wl be socialised ...... USA is going the older USSR way ...... isnt it ????? i think worst than that ....in USSR the profits were not privatised ....... may be profits were never made ....... any comments ???
madhav ranade (9/19/2008 3:13:38 PM): rallies u r seeing in US and UK market is due to technical reasons like banning of short sell etc ...... if short sells is banned in our market, we wud hv crossed 4700/4800 by now ..... we know that these technical factors work for a few days and if the fundamentals dont improve during that time .... we r back to square one ..... keep that in mind ......
madhav ranade (9/19/2008 3:18:24 PM): before banning shorts in india, govt will hv to accept that our FIs are at risk of default .... which they hv ben denying all thru ... and it is a fact as well ... so i see no chance that shots will be banned in india ..... DONT LIVE IN THAT WONDERLAND .....
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