archives of yahoo messenger - 5th september

5th september 2008

madhav ranade (9/5/2008 9:55:20 AM): good morning ! what shud i say ...... everything is working out as explained earlier ..... on tuesday some people were saying yr logic is impeccable but it was not yr day ...... but i never say anything for intraday ...... as long as things play out over a week or two- i am more than happy ..... nifty shud open about 80 points down and all puts recommended to buy yesterday shud make reasonable money ..... i am happy to say the least ...... try and buy aban 1round 2060/2080 if it is available around that rate .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 10:04:36 AM): no particular stock has massively cracked ..... it is a secular downswing of 2/3 % ...... i wl read it as sign of strength .... but i wl prefer to wait for another 10 / 15 mins to see if any cracks r opening in some stocks .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 10:14:20 AM): tech stocks ...... nasdaq is falling everyday ..... and most tech cos hv hedged full quarters earning at 41 rs a dollar ...... why r we rejoicing ...... i see a 7 to 10 % downside for the sector unless nifty is going to move up 8/10 % in next 2/3 weeks .......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 11:14:12 AM): NSG meet ...... i am getting a feeling that govt is in a mood to accept NSG waiver in whatever format it comes ..... unless it is absolutely damning ..... and then try and prove to the nation by interpreting every clause to our advantage ...... when u r in power .... only u r privy to all the information while opposition is only guessing and reacting to what is in public domain ...... so it is normally possible to brush aside some small unacceptable differences under the pretext of ambiguity etc ...... i wl now put that chances are 80/20 in favour of nsg waiver .... since we r ready to compromise ......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:07:07 PM): except india and USA - most other indices are either at 52 week lows or very close to that ....... i think this shud be kept in mind while taking any aggressive longs ..... i hope u hv seen shankar sharma's interview ... inspite of constant bullish prodding by udayan ..... he held his own and this is a must see interview ..... i think he spoke very well .... very balanced and never brought emotions ( they were visible on udayan's face - all the time ) ....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:51:31 PM): nifty .... we may go up till about 4364 or 4382 ... as ftse is getting closer to neutral zone and hangseng is also cutting losses .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:54:07 PM): nifty - my downside taget of 4328 was achived an there is a bounce ..... u may get a bounce upto levels as mentioned earlier ... if it crosses 4382 .... we will review .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 12:58:05 PM): steel stocks are going to be under the hammer now .... all US steel stocks also correcting heavily ....... we can see 7/8 % correction easily .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 1:39:36 PM): looks like 4382 is going to hold ..... ftse going down sharply .......... madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:35:19 PM): FTSE - 95 minus ..... this may be third day in a row when ftse wud hv lost over 100 points ......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:38:08 PM): in the morning i wrote about techs .... see infy / satyam and wipro ..... cheers .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:44:32 PM): market movement and stock price is a function of several known and unknown variables .... if we just start looking from one angle like inflation or crude etc, then people kep on wondering why market is going down ... atleast try to look at all known variables .... put values ... look at their interlinkages and co-relations .... then u may get a better picture .... inspite of that ... there will be ffect of a few unnownvariables ... but we cant do anything about that ..... if life was so simple ... like crude down then market up or inflation down then market up etc .... no body wud hv worked and just sat infront of a laptop and traded ..... isnt it ??????????????
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:58:05 PM): tata steel is really under hammer .... i said so in the morning .... chartically now a major support level is around 500 ... if it closes below 562 which looks likely .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 2:59:59 PM): look at hindalco / tisco / telco ..... all big deal makers ... all of them are in trouble .... i hope infy does not hv the same fate ...... although the deal is yet to go thru ......
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:01:19 PM): how many of you remember ... the note i wrote after JLR deal .... are we becoming kabadi's of the world ????????
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:04:40 PM): look at bharat forge ... baba is sitting in the boardrooms all over the world .... but where is the stockprice .... it is one thing to do business in india ... when u can pay 200 dollars a month for labourers .... and the other part of the world where u hv to pay min 100 dollars a day ....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:21:39 PM): make straddles in nuclear deal related stocks ..... buy just out of the money puts and calls .... yesterday i was thinking the deal wl not go thru ..... but it seems our govt is reluctant to walk away from the table ..... so they wl take whatever is dished out .... in that case we hv to cover upside also ..... hence the straddles .....
madhav ranade (9/5/2008 3:27:37 PM): at NSG level ... everybody will be smart enough to draft something which can be read / interpreted in 3/4 different ways ..... that is why earlier we were insisting on 'clean' waiver ..... now since that becomes difficult to come, either we hv to walk away or accept with a slightly distorted waiver ..... anyway we r not going to test imdtly ... the govt at that time will face the consequences .... man-son team wl go in hisyory books ......