archives of messenger postings for 8th / 9th / 10th september

archives of messenger postings for 8th / 9th / 10th sept.

some important messages are highlighted in red.

10th sept 2008

madhav ranade (9/10/2008 9:51:58 AM): good morning ! we shud be dancing to the tunes of dow .... fall will not be severe since futures are up a bit ..... if futures change course anytime during the day we will hv a sharp fall ..... keep that in mind and dont take agressive long posns .... shorts created yesterday afternoon can be booked at about nifty level of 4420/4430 ..... but continue with shorts if nifty is slipping below these levels at opening itself ......

madhav ranade (9/10/2008 9:55:23 AM): tatasteel is already clobbered ..... today it wl be SAIL ... i think so ......

madhav ranade (9/10/2008 9:59:32 AM): SAIL can go to 142 / 139 levels ..... watch out

madhav ranade (9/10/2008 10:02:23 AM): i am going to buy some silver for my personal consumption around 17,500 a kg ..... i decided that around 15th aug ..... i think i wl be able to buy in next few days ......

madhav ranade (9/10/2008 10:26:55 AM): reliance may now slide to 2087/2090 zone ......

madhav ranade (9/10/2008 10:28:50 AM): reliance 2100 put ..... we can book profit around 58/60 ..... yesterday it was recommended to buy around 38/39 ..........

madhav ranade (9/10/2008 10:36:44 AM): nasdaq composit is below 15th july closing low and s&p is juat above that ...... dow is approaching but still away ....... things r not looking exactly bright and as i said yesterday the US govt has played its last trump already ...... we must remain extremely extremely cautious .......

madhav ranade (9/10/2008 11:04:17 AM): silver has a major support at 10.45/10.55 dollar zone ..... so another 5/6 % slide can not be ruled out ..... and if rupe appreciates by say 3/4 % ... which is also entirely possible ..... we may hv a 8/9 % fall in rupee terms ..... then it is a good buying opportunity for physical buying .... i dont mean for speculation and trading ......

madhav ranade (9/10/2008 11:47:26 AM): in a bull market, all flag and penant breakouts work and work very well ...... but they wl not in bear market .... particularly upside breakouts .....

madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:08:04 PM): dow futures are fluctuating wildly ...... normally this does not happen .....

madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:09:36 PM): looks like hangseng is catching a downtrend .....

madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:38:46 PM): so 20 rupees made on reliance 2100 put ...... this was virtually risk free .... and in less than a day .... cheers ......

madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:40:47 PM): all nuclear deal related stocks wl slowly go back to their last week lows ...... may be in 5/7 sessions ....

madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:43:29 PM): SAIL ..... didn't i tell u in the morning .... sail wl go to 142/139 .... from 148 at that time ....it has hit 140 already ...... cheers ....... 4/5 % in a day is serious money ... atleast for me .....

madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:49:18 PM): people who hold reliance in cash can sell 2220 cal at 25 rs ..... looks safe ....

madhav ranade (9/10/2008 1:52:19 PM): now we shud look at 4383 nifty spot .... cheers ..........

madhav ranade (9/10/2008 2:47:48 PM): NIFTY spot ..... i had given next stop as 4383 ..... we hv hit 4385 odd ...... cheers ..........madhav ranade (9/10/2008 2:52:10 PM): 4383 breached ...... let us watch ........

9th sept 2008

madhav ranade (9/9/2008 9:50:00 AM): good morning !

madhav ranade (9/9/2008 10:09:24 AM): NTPC - 180 put ..... target achieved at 6 rs ..... cheers ......

madhav ranade (9/9/2008 11:04:58 AM): as far as US is concerned, they hv played their last trump ...... now if financials drift, there is very little thay can do ...... in fact china is worried as they see no end to this housing / credit crisis ..... they hv every reason to be worried as they r holding more than 1 trillion US liquid assets ..... and the continuing problems are causing them some capital erosion ...... they keep generating so much forex surplus every year that they hv no choice but to park the same in US securities only ..... really it is a problem of PLENTY .....

madhav ranade (9/9/2008 11:24:31 AM): i will be issuing a midweek review on thursday morning for paid customers of posn trading group .... this wl cover levels for 15 /20 active stocks ....

madhav ranade (9/9/2008 2:47:29 PM): pl buy back reliance 2100 put where we hv booked profit in the morning .....madhav ranade (9/9/2008 3:14:44 PM): reliance 2100 put - sl 30

8th sept 2008

madhav ranade (9/8/2008 9:47:09 AM): good morning ! pl read my blog www.sumamurauvach.blogspot.com

madhav ranade (9/8/2008 9:54:20 AM): frenzied short covering will happen from retail ...... FIIs may use the opportunity to press shorts further ...... they wl cover shorts when there will be a small dip in the market ..... so book profits when going is good and reenter at lower levels .....

madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:03:40 AM): exit ntpc 180 call around 9.5/10 and lt 2700 call around 210/220 .... cheers ................

madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:10:23 AM): having exited ntpc 180 call, now buy ntpc 180 put around 3/3.25 ...... cheers .... this move will not sustain ...........

madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:15:21 AM): madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:13:33 AM): watch my trading levels ..... posn trading levels i mean ..... they r in a file uploaded today on my free group ...... http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/sumamura-free/

madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:14:53 AM): u wl find corrected levels of nifty and bse sent separately in a message .... after the freddy / fanny bailout .....

madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:19:03 AM): LT 2700 call ..... a mistake in giving selling level .... i looked at 2600 call level .... correct exit level is around 135 ......

madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:38:35 AM): personnally, i expected a much stronger rally than what we hv seen ...... i think this is showing inherent weakness in the market .....

madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:46:43 AM): exit ntpc 180 call ..... now ..... if u r still holding ...... the fun is over ...............

madhav ranade (9/8/2008 10:54:13 AM): pl think over before hitching yr bandwagon to nuclear cart ....... how many of u remember what happened to textile / textile machinery stocks ..... after quotas were removed ....... the stocks became 3 times thinking that india will be only exporting country in the world and now they hv fallen wayside ...... what i mean is any gains are minimum 3/5 yrs away ... so be cautious ......

madhav ranade (9/8/2008 11:32:25 AM): one of my paid client made 27000 in NTPC straddles ..... on investment of 20,000 rs ..... cheers ...........

madhav ranade (9/8/2008 12:23:52 PM): petro cos / refiners ...... there is pressure on govt to reduce petroproduct prices .... half the increase shud be given back ..... this is election gimmick ..... this wl reduce inflation by 0.7 / 0.8 % after 3 weeks ..... sell govt owned petrleum marketing cos as well as ongc ............ madhav ranade (9/8/2008 12:25:43 PM): sell ntpc 160 put ..... other leg of the straddle for 50 paise ......

madhav ranade (9/8/2008 1:28:20 PM): looks like fancy of NSG waiver has waned and all the related stocks are correcting from high levels reached ...... what is holding up market is gains due to dow futures ..... let us see how that story developes .... we hv seen in the past that steroids hv not worked more than a cople of days ......

madhav ranade (9/8/2008 2:00:23 PM): i think retail wl cover their shorts or they may hv already completed covering ..... i think todays trading warrants short covering from FIIs .... in fact if there is a bounce upto 4550, they wl press fresh shorts ..... they know that rally in dow may fizzle out today itself ..... look at dow futures they hv come down from 280 plus to about 220 plus and ftse is not going much beyond 200 points plus ..... that too after huge short covering at london which had lost close to 400 points in last 3 sessions ..... i wl not bet on FII short covering at this point .......

madhav ranade (9/8/2008 2:27:14 PM): icici / ntpc look criticall poised ............

madhav ranade (9/8/2008 3:08:54 PM): look at rcom 380 put / reliance 2100 put / ntpc 180 put ...... all told to buy to paid clients ...... cheers .............

madhav ranade (9/8/2008 3:31:03 PM): i had told around 2 pm ..... that the levels do not warrant serious short covering ..... and when short covering did not happen .... long liquidation has happened ..... so a very satisfying day ..... cheers ..... see u tomorrow ......