archives of 12th / 17th / 18th sept yahoo messenger posting

18th september 2008
madhav ranade (9/18/2008 9:55:49 AM): good morning ! what shud i say ? last mondays rally was not at all convincing for me ..... and tuesdays pullback even less ..... so i hv been recommending to go short or atleast cut longs at every stage ...... i hv been watching charts for all indices every day and weakness was palpable ..... but everyone was made to believe the other way ..... so now we pay the price .....
madhav ranade (9/18/2008 9:57:16 AM): i hv been telling u that trust only shankar sharma and ramesh damani ...... everyone else is a hoax ......
madhav ranade (9/18/2008 10:12:28 AM): just forget terms like short term / mid term bottom etc ...... that is only for babbling hours on when u hv nothing else to say ...... the problems in global financial markets are currently un-fathomable ..... that is reality ....
madhav ranade (9/18/2008 12:47:00 PM): signing out now .... shud be back by 3 pm ......

17th september 2008
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 9:04:43 AM): good morning ! i am back ..... i had told u on fiday morning that lehman debacle is waiting to happen and u wl see lot of blood on screen on in next one or two days ...... it did happen that way ..... PL NOTE THAT STEROIDS DONT WORK FOR MORE THAN COUPLE OF DAYS ...... AIG is bailed out ..... and this one has not worked even 4 hrs ..... dow futures shot up and they are already near negitive zone as i am typing this message ..... yesterdays recovery was used by smart people to exit stuck longs ... but some hv built longs as depicted by nifty fut premium ..... no one can help these greedy souls ..... i will need some time to get grip on the market again as lots has happened in last 2 days when i was away and i must take stock ..... mrkets shud open in red ... as it looks now ..... take care
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:00:39 AM): as expected we hv opened in the red ..... marginally though ..... AIG is virtually nationalised .... which can not be a GOOD NEWS to rejoice .... keep that in mind ..... today US markets will react vigorously ..... and i dont like to be trapped on the wrong side .....
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:03:47 AM): satyam / tatachem / neyveli / suzlon can be looked at from med term perspective ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:05:35 AM): yesterday MRPL was a great buy around 52/53 levels ..... keep watching that stock closer to 50/52 ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:07:23 AM): icici has gap around 555 on weekly charts ..... rcap has a gap around 999 ...... keep watching .......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:14:50 AM): i feel that neyveli at this level is a much better buy than NTPC ...... pl switch if u trust me ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:22:46 AM): CNBC anchors ..... or shud we say child anchors ..... hv a very nasty habit of asking 'leading ' questions ..... if the person who is giving an interview feels the bottom is in place .... he will say so ..... anchors dont hv to prod him to say so ..... there are only a handful of people who wl hv a knack to say what they want to say .... inspite of consistent prodding ...... other will fall into the traps of 'leading' questions .......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 10:37:44 AM): many tech analysts are still refusing to accept the reality and still living in the dreams they had last monday morning ..... they hv put on dark goggles meant for bright sun .... and then driving in the night ......
madhav ranade: market cap of AIG .. at yesterdays closing was around 10 billion dollars .....
madhav ranade: wl any govt wl give 8 times market cap as loan ...... unless it was a desperate situation ... to avert financial disaster which wud hv happened if AIG were to belly-up ..... this is time to introspect and not to rejoice ..... how badly the american economy was handled for last several years ..... also u may look at it as bane of capitalism .......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 1:32:56 PM): as per CNBC child anchors perspective ...... a 3 hours rally is good enough for "short term bottom to be in place " ............ cheers to them and to their childish wisdom ................ madhav ranade (9/17/2008 1:36:45 PM): my charts are saying that IFCI has slipped below 40 ...... as per some gurus, it is a 'goldmine' .... i think it is a defunct or abandoned gold mine ...... all the gold was taken out by operators when it hit 120 9/10 months ago ..... now they shud convert it into a tourist spot ......madhav ranade (9/17/2008 1:39:59 PM): when AIG trades at around 10 billion dollar market cap ....... how much wl somebody pay for junk like IFCI ???????? and that to whyyyyyyyyyyy ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:17:27 PM): FTSE recovery ...... HBOS ... a large UK lender was nearly 42 % down .... it has recovered to just 2 % down now ..... hence FTSE has recoved but royal bank of scotland is still struggling .......madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:21:41 PM): HBOS is halifax bank of scotland ..... it is a large insurer and financier ..... it was trading at 45 % discount a about half an hour ago ...... has recovered since then ..........
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:30:33 PM): HBOS holds 20 % of national savings in UK ...... but it was going at less than 5 billion pounds market cap about 45 mins ago .... this shows the enormity of credit problemmm.... actually there is no end in sight ..... as all these financial institutions are so interlinked that u save one but another gets ready to bust in 48 hrs ...... i dont know whether even the fed understands how the things are going to unfold in next few weeks an months ...... it is like when the baby is crying .... without knowing what is the problem - first thing u do is feed him ..... fed did that 6 months ago by throwing money in the system and lowering interest rates ..... but now the malice has gone far beyond and amputation may be only way out ...... but the problem is ampute what ????????????
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:40:27 PM): today trading going on all major exchanges is simply like having a roller coaster ride with 2 or 3 loops ..... at the end u come out completely exhausted and groggy but u enjoy immensely when it is going on ...... i am infront of my terminal .... browsing several several websites for possible clues .... and believe me there has been not a dull moment ....... simply invigotating to say the least ....... cheeeeeeeeers .......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:46:10 PM): more than 75 lac shares traded on icici counter in last 45 mins ...... price range from 530 to 575 ....... some heady buying has happened .......madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:48:06 PM): icici has left 525 gap unfilled ...... so it has left chance for one more downswing .........
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 2:52:14 PM): US fed and SEC has already started looking for a suitor for washington mutual ...... yhat seems to be next in line after AIG ......
madhav ranade (9/17/2008 3:25:49 PM): if u hv any holding in IFCI, pl sell and buy half qty of IDFC ...... it is a far better switch ....... it wl improve quality of your portfolio from junk to 'investment grade' .........

12th september 2008

madhav ranade (9/12/2008 9:53:57 AM): good morning ! a slightly positive opening ..... but inflation nos are definitely not entirely benign and these wl play on the market as well as interest sensitives after initial 15/20 mins ..... keep watching ......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 10:08:12 AM): buy some silver .... if u can .... there is a nearly 15 % difference in silver casl international and silver spot in india ...... if u wl get 2/3 kgs .... for yrself i mean .... u wl get nearly 2000 per kg now .....
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 10:46:45 AM): i am just reproducing what i wrote about tech stockson 5th sept .... that is last week ..... madhav ranade (9/5/2008 10:14:20 AM): tech stocks ...... nasdaq is falling everyday ..... and most tech cos hv hedged full quarters earning at 41 rs a dollar ...... why r we rejoicing ...... i see a 7 to 10 % downside for the sector unless nifty is going to move up 8/10 % in next 2/3 weeks .......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 10:51:35 AM): reliance - 1960/65 gap on hourly charts filled .... i had said that yesterday ..... cheers ...............
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 10:52:56 AM): nifty spot ..... we r within striking distance of 4228 ..... cheers ...... i hope now some of u wl look at what i write seriously ......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 11:21:11 AM): there is a chance that lehman may unwind their entire india portfolio in coming 2/3 days. they hv been unwinding over last 2 weeks but that is generally counterparty trades ... so it wl not hv any impact on market or FII figures. now they hv come to a stage where they wl hv to unwind - one shot - like what bear sterns did in march ...... so beware ..... i am told that they hold reliance , all adag stocks , nbventures, anantraj, sujana .... there could be some more names ..... we must keep in mind what happened to orchid ... may be evn 25 % of that damage takes place to smaller stocks .... it could be substantial ..... i think we wl hit 4180 ... sooner or later ..... cheers ..... remember better informed is better warned .... and take care ........
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 12:17:33 PM): nifty spot ...... europe likely to open strong ... so buy nifty between 4260/70 spot and sell around 4300 ... sl 4250 ........
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:06:46 PM): i am back. europe is positive as expected ..... IIP data is not bad .... but market is still sagging ..... it did not sustain above 4300 which was acid test for me .... so we r going down ... and again targets of 4228 and 4176 wl come in play ..... capital goods stocks hv given up all the gains made post IIP nos and let us see how they close ...
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:11:38 PM): it seems BOA and barclays are looking at lehman .... BOA bailed out a troubled morgage co - countrywide finance corpn - in february and then that co went bankrupt giving a major blow to BOA shareholders ..... i am not really very sure whether they wud like to risk shareholder money second time .... barclays bank is a london based bank and they will definitely be interested in complete buyout ... not only a stake .... let us see how the situation developes ... but it will hv some resolution by monday latest as lehman is on the brink ......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:15:40 PM): falling GRMs are really taking toll of RIL and RPL ..... the complete applecart has capsized as GRMs hv moved down drastically to single digits from midteens .... rpl will be a bigger loser and it depends 100 % on refinery operations while RIL has petchem / E&P business to fall back ..... we will rework figures next week ......
madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:23:11 PM): there is nearly 25 % wealth erosion for sterlite shareholders .... even malco has lost 25 % from peak ..... who said that restructuring is always beneficial for shareholders ! ! ! ! ! madhav ranade (9/12/2008 3:25:22 PM): reliance - on daily charts there is a gap at 1785/92 ... looks like we r marching to fill that gap ... and then just imagine what happens to nifty ... and all eliot wave theories showing 4750 as targets .....